# Assume the GOP loses in November: where from here? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 28, 2016, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411 "2016-02-28T17:50:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/21 "2016-03-01T00:57:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If the GOP loses, then we probably see a replay of the 1994-1996 period. Except with a much better chance to win in 2020 than they had in 1996. Why? The demographics will be much worse for them than they were in '96. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/22 "2016-03-01T00:59:42Z")
> [@YogSothoth](#): > > No need to speculate, the “not conservative enough” narrative for Trump is already written if he loses. I guarantee this will be the first thing out of the mouths of the likes of Redstate, National Review, Fox News, etc. With Cruz it’ll be much different, I am both afraid and curious to see how they’ll spin his loss > [@DigitalC](#): > > It’s not like this time they would be wrong, Trump is about as fake conservative as they get. Most of the Redstate regulars are strongly against him. But it won’t be “not conservative enough” it will be “not conservative at all”. But, Trump won’t **lose** because he’s not conservative enough. Nor will he lose because he is too conservative. He will lose because he is a person impossible for the majority to take seriously as a presidential prospect, whatever his politics. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/23 "2016-03-01T01:03:23Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Play out both Trump as the candidate and Rubio. Assume they lose. One proves the failure of betting big on working class White turnout, the other demonstrates the impotence of the GOP elite. In each case what does the party look like moving forward after this race? > > Of course the GOP still controls Congress (maybe not Senate all the time) but it seems likely that this race changes _something_ fundamentally about the face of the GOP. > > What happens from there? Ideally, disbandment of the party, with all assets liquidated and distributed to inner-city soup kitchens and food banks. > [@](#): > > Of course if the GOP candidate wins … it’s a whole other question! ILLEGAL OPERATION . . . DIVIDE BY CHEESE ERROR . . . REBOOT UNIVERSE AND RESTART. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/24 "2016-03-01T01:19:03Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Why? The demographics will be much worse for them than they were in '96. Three terms by the same party in power\> demographics. Also, demographics aren’t set in stone. Birth rates change, society changes, immigration changes. Some think that Latinos are just today’s Irish and Italians. The only demographic the Democrats can absolutely rely on is African-Americans. Latinos have been quite unreliable, having a tendency to either not show up, or to vote more Republican than desired. Not every election is going to go like 2012. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/25 "2016-03-01T01:27:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Three terms by the same party in power\> demographics. Also, demographics aren’t set in stone. Birth rates change, society changes, immigration changes. Some think that Latinos are just today’s Irish and Italians. The only demographic the Democrats can absolutely rely on is African-Americans. Latinos have been quite unreliable, having a tendency to either not show up, or to vote more Republican than desired. Not every election is going to go like 2012. I was thinking more of the **generational** demographics. It’s mostly old folks keeping movement conservatism alive nowadays, and movement conservatism keeping the GOP alive. By 2020 that many more hard-RWs will have died off, without commensurate numbers of younger ones replacing them. Even the reddest states are going to turn purple over the next 10 or 20 years. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/26 "2016-03-01T02:10:54Z")
Generational changes are influenced by the party in power. If young people have a bad experience under an administration, they tend to support the opposition party. If they have a good experience, they tend to become loyal to the party in power. That’s why a generation of young Republicans emerged under Reagan. I’m not sure Obama has really capitalized on that, and I’m pretty sure Clinton won’t be able to. After three terms in power, a pretty decent percentage of voters will not remember GWB. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/27 "2016-03-01T04:08:45Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Three terms by the same party in power\> demographics. Also, demographics aren’t set in stone. Birth rates change, society changes, immigration changes. Some think that Latinos are just today’s Irish and Italians. The only demographic the Democrats can absolutely rely on is African-Americans. Latinos have been quite unreliable, having a tendency to either not show up, or to vote more Republican than desired. Not every election is going to go like 2012. Latinos have been consistently dem for [40+](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/files/2013/03/Screen-Shot-2013-03-18-at-11.02.04-AM.png)years. The closest any republican got them was W, who got about 40% of their vote. I think 2-1 for latinos favoring dems is kind of the norm. Also race is just one factor, age is another huge factor. Even if you look at democratic primary polls, there is a relationship between age and who you support. THe younger you are, the more likely you support Sanders, the older you are the more you support Clinton. Also factor in that Fox’s viewing audience is in their 60s+. The 2020s could (emphasis on could) end up ushering in a new progressive era if demographic changes regarding race and age keep doing what they have been doing. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/28 "2016-03-01T05:24:07Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Latinos have been consistently dem for [40+](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/files/2013/03/Screen-Shot-2013-03-18-at-11.02.04-AM.png)years. The closest any republican got them was W, who got about 40% of their vote. I think 2-1 for latinos favoring dems is kind of the norm. A range of 25%-40% is certainly Democrats winning, but it is not a reliable voting bloc in the way African-Americans, or even Jews, are. When latinos go wobbly, like they often do in Texas and Florida, Republicans win. African-Americans NEVER go wobbly. > [@](#): > > Also race is just one factor, age is another huge factor. Even if you look at democratic primary polls, there is a relationship between age and who you support. THe younger you are, the more likely you support Sanders, the older you are the more you support Clinton. > > Also factor in that Fox’s viewing audience is in their 60s+. The 2020s could (emphasis on could) end up ushering in a new progressive era if demographic changes regarding race and age keep doing what they have been doing. That depends on the experience of kids growing up under Obama and Clinton governance. If they still don’t have jobs and are crushed by student loan debt… ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/29 "2016-03-01T05:30:05Z")
They’ll vote for Republicans? Great googly-moogly, why? ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/30 "2016-03-01T05:36:58Z")
Either they drop at least some of their losing positions in order to to attract some demographic which is currently shunning them, or they will fade into irrelevance over the next few election cycles as the percentage of angry old white people in the electorate declines, and eventually the Democrats will split into two parties to fill the void. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/31 "2016-03-01T12:12:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > A range of 25%-40% is certainly Democrats winning, but it is not a reliable voting bloc in the way African-Americans, or even Jews, are. When latinos go wobbly, like they often do in Texas and Florida, Republicans win. African-Americans NEVER go wobbly. > > That depends on the experience of kids growing up under Obama and Clinton governance. If they still don’t have jobs and are crushed by student loan debt… The range of wobbly is just different. 7 to 15% in a large segment with now reliable turnout is a range just as significant as 25 to 40% in a less large less reliable turnout group. And honestly I am not so sure about your point on youth. Fact of the matter that the Millennials identify more often as Independents who happen to always vote D than as Democrats so they are potentially winnable. But not if they always perceive the GOP as working against the things they care about. They are not evangelical, they are not movement conservatives, they are often highly educated, and they overall are not big fans of Trump’s sort of branding. ---
**Author:** ![SmartAlecCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SmartAlecCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAlecCat)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/32 "2016-03-01T12:33:38Z")
> [@The\_Tooth](#): > > They’ll vote for Republicans? > > Great googly-moogly, why? Because gays and their agenda. (Equal rights) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/33 "2016-03-01T14:40:26Z")
No matter what happens, I guarantee that when the dust settles, we will have one party on each side of the abortion debate, and one party on each side of the gun debate. Those two are just too contentious to settle in our lifetimes, with a large number of people on each side who consider it a very important issue. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/34 "2016-03-01T14:44:23Z")
With the gun debate it’s actually more that one faction of one party is on one side, and one party plus the other half of the other party are on the other. Gun control is strictly a liberal cause these days, and not even one they are all that committed to. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/35 "2016-03-01T14:46:41Z")
The first question is whether the Republican Party remains in one piece, or whether the fissure between Trump and anybody-but-Trump causes a new Wig Party to coalesce around The Donald. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/36 "2016-03-01T14:52:26Z")
Nah. We have a two party system. What Trump will simply do is cause a realignment. The REpublican Party will become more like the nationalist parties of Europe. Which means the party will become more liberal on economic issues and more Big Government in general, because that’s what poor whites want. As has been pointed out many times by Tea Party critics, poor and elderly white folks like their Medicare and food stamps. But what happens to the Democratic Party? Well, a lot of those college educated Republicans would probably bolt. If every action causes an equal and opposite reaction in politics, then the Democrats would become a more libertarian party. Not a small government party by any means, since the Democrats will still be the party of poor minorities, but the party would lurch even further into being a Wall Street-friendly party as almost all well educated, well off Americans would then be Democrats. So basically a liberal/libertarian party with big government instincts, constrained by the realities trying to tax their well off yuppie base. Actually, it could be argued that 100% of the change in both parties since the advent of the Tea Party movement has already been in that direction. Democrats won’t talk about raising taxes on people until they are above like $400K a year in income, and Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee, recognizing the changes in the GOP base’s demographics, promise to protect SS and Medicare. The real interesting issue will be if socially moderate Republican officeholders will finally just ditch the GOP for the Democrats. Plus Republicans who take a pro-life stance but don’t really care much about the issue. Could the Paul Ryans and Rand Pauls of the party bolt? They should. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2016, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/37 "2016-03-02T19:16:48Z")
I’m agreeing with most of what you say here. But reading it for the first time it really has an [Alice goes through the looking glass] feel. It takes a couple readings to really appreciate. Which is a comment on how topsy-turvy things are now, not a comment that you’ve been doing whatever drugs Lewis Carroll enjoyed. I’m reminded of the how the Earth’s magnetic poles shift every few million years. Things seem eternally stable, then they go crazy for a comparatively brief interval, then they settle down ass-backwards from the way they were. All of us older than about 30 were raised with the idea of the Rs & the Ds and Right and Left being eternal unalterable features of the political landscape. They were Forces of Nature. Now we’re all watching that change, and change quickly. Some of us are catching on early and some of us are in denial. Once things enter the chaos-o-sphere there’s almost no predicting how the pieces re-align. Might be opposite to before; might be just 30 degrees off before. No way to predict. We’ll have to wait and see. ---
**Author:** ![escaped](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/848f3c/32.png) [@escaped](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/escaped)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2016, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/38 "2016-03-02T21:01:54Z")
They(repubilcans) will becomr emore libertarian. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2016, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/39 "2016-03-02T21:17:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Three terms by the same party in power\> demographics. Also, demographics aren’t set in stone. Birth rates change, society changes, immigration changes. Some think that Latinos are just today’s Irish and Italians. The only demographic the Democrats can absolutely rely on is African-Americans. Latinos have been quite unreliable, having a tendency to either not show up, or to vote more Republican than desired. Not every election is going to go like 2012. If you remember the Republican establishment after 2016 agreed with you and recommended that they advocate policies more appealing to Latinos. How did that work out? Trump started by bashing them and got the base. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2016, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411/40 "2016-03-02T21:19:18Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But, Trump won’t **lose** because he’s not conservative enough. Nor will he lose because he is too conservative. He will lose because he is a person impossible for the majority to take seriously as a presidential prospect, whatever his politics. Hey, you’re talking reality here, but this thread is about Republicans. After they mostly give lip service to supporting Trump, they can’t be able to say that they lost because he was a wack job. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/assume-the-gop-loses-in-november-where-from-here/747411.md?page=3)