# Asteroid mining?! Can this be profitable?! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 26, 2012, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070 "2012-04-26T22:40:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![prashanth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/439d5e/32.png) [@prashanth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/prashanth)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/21 "2012-04-27T05:42:35Z")
> [@runcible\_spoon](#): > > Delicious? I meant Drilling 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Blake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a9a28c/32.png) [@Blake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blake)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/22 "2012-04-27T06:19:38Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Isn’t there a big asteroid made of gold out there? I don’t know where I heard this Dr. Who. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/23 "2012-04-27T07:10:11Z")
Doctor Whom? ---
**Author:** ![Lynn\_Bodoni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e47c2d/32.png) [@Lynn\_Bodoni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lynn_Bodoni)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 10:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/24 "2012-04-27T10:54:43Z")
> [@Otara](#): > > And in the 15th Century with the technology available, it was true. And even more true for the Vikings who came before. And we cant hope for the equivalent of America to be found in between to save our bacon like it did for Columbus. > > Im not saying it will never ever be worth doing, or ever profitable. But right now, absent some concrete data, my bets on the above with the current effort inside meaningful time frames. I hope Im wrong, it was certainly a childhood dream to see real space travel happen in my lifetime. > > Otara It’s unlikely that we’ll find undiscovered land out there. However, we really don’t know what IS out there, and we won’t know unless we look. It’s like educating a group of children. You don’t know whether or not any individual child will grow up to be the next Einstein, or the next Hitler. But you need to do a lot of educating in order to see some results. You can’t just pick a few kids to educate for a better future, you need to educate a lot of them. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/25 "2012-04-27T11:40:54Z")
I would be more optimistic if they had first decided humanity needs more platinum etc.; tried to think of a way to get it; and settled on asteroid-mining as the best way. But almost certainly that’s not how their reasoning went. Most likely, they first decided it would be really cool to have a business venture in outer space and decided that asteroid-mining would be the best way to accomplish this. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/26 "2012-04-27T11:43:15Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > Doctor Whom? [Don’t be that guy](http://hijinksensue.com/2012/04/26/dont-be-that-guy/)! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/27 "2012-04-27T13:10:46Z")
> [@Askance](#): > > I’m not sure if [this New Scientist article is viewable by non-subscribers](http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21428611.000-rich-seams-of-earths-secret-moons.html?full=true), but it says in part: > > > [@](#): > > > > The reason for the renewed interest is the steady rise in the price of gold and other base metals during the past decade. Gold is a “base metal” now?! **That’s** progress! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/28 "2012-04-27T13:28:54Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Isn’t there a big asteroid made of gold out there? I don’t know where I heard this, but that could make it worthwhile. Uncle Scrooge thought so: [http://pages.adateintimecollectibles.com/11804/PictPage/3923695835.html](http://pages.adateintimecollectibles.com/11804/PictPage/3923695835.html) So did Jules Verne: > **[The Chase of the Golden Meteor by Jules Verne](https://www.fantasticfiction.com/v/jules-verne/chase-of-golden-meteor.htm)** > > The Chase of the Golden Meteor by Jules Verne - book cover, description. Although, as Verne pointed out, the addition of that much gold to the world’s economy would depress the price severely, making it _not_ worthwhile. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/29 "2012-04-27T13:45:24Z")
> [@XT](#): > > It wasn’t really profitable to send expeditions to the new world for quite a while either, but eventually they worked out. That’s a terrible analogy, as the new world was conveniently equipped with essentials such as water, air and food, unlike space. Nor did the ships need to be launched out of a deep gravity well. > [@TriPolar](#): > > [From Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining#Economics): > > > [@](#): > > > > In 1997 it was speculated that a relatively small metallic asteroid with a diameter of 1.6 km (0.99 mi) contains more than $ 20 trillion USD worth of industrial and precious metals. > > I think for $20 trillion dollars we could drag an asteroid into earth orbit, then drop it on Texas. What is the mass of a one mile asteroid? How much fuel would be required to move it? For comparison, the total of all payloads sent into orbit since the dawn of the space age is roughly equivalent to a load of a single large container ship. Asteroid mining will only become viable if we ever reach the point where we become very active in space, and it becomes more cost and energy efficient than launching material from Earth. We are a very long way from this. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/30 "2012-04-27T14:32:05Z")
To bring it home to the Dope, one of our alumni thinks this could actually work. And he’s got some qualifications to speak on this matter. Phil Plait, the Bad Astronomer. [http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/04/24/breaking-private-company-does-indeed-plan-to-mine-asteroids-and-i-think-they-can-do-it/](http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/04/24/breaking-private-company-does-indeed-plan-to-mine-asteroids-and-i-think-they-can-do-it/) ---
**Author:** ![BMalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@BMalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BMalion)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/31 "2012-04-27T14:41:18Z")
I’m all for it. Learning how to mine and move big space-rocks can only come in handy if we discover one on a collision course with Earth. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/32 "2012-04-27T14:41:22Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Wait a tick, doesn’t the act of bringing such quantities of the metal to the earth could cause prices to drop so fast as to possibly cause a catastrophe for the markets of those metals? > > IIRC some sci-fi tales in the past made this “twist” at the end, but that is fiction; in reality, how much more metal brought in could cause bad results for earth’s economy? Well, what happened to Spain’s economy during the beginning of the colonial period was runaway inflation. There was a lot of coin around, the kings were spending it in their European dreams, suddenly the same _real de vellón_ which used to buy you three pairs of shoes didn’t even pay for one. But this was in a country where gold and silver _were_ the coin, I don’t know how would it translate in a modern economy. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/33 "2012-04-27T14:44:28Z")
> [@Alka\_Seltzer](#): > > What is the mass of a one mile asteroid? How much fuel would be required to move it? For comparison, the total of all payloads sent into orbit since the dawn of the space age is roughly equivalent to a load of a single large container ship. > > Asteroid mining will only become viable if we ever reach the point where we become very active in space, and it becomes more cost and energy efficient than launching material from Earth. We are a very long way from this. That’s just thinking inside the box. You have to factor in the advantage of taking care of the Texas problem. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/34 "2012-04-27T14:56:00Z")
> [@CalMeacham](#): > > Uncle Scrooge thought so: > > [http://pages.adateintimecollectibles.com/11804/PictPage/3923695835.html](http://pages.adateintimecollectibles.com/11804/PictPage/3923695835.html) That’s it! That’s where I first heard of the gold asteroid! But there does seem to be a lot of precious metal out there. It’s interesting to consider the precious metals because we have a limited supply of those on earth while demand continues to increase. I’m not sure what the economic impact would be in that case. It would certainly decrease the value of gold if we brought a lot back from space cheaply. But if we’re in an overall shortage it may not collapse the market. OTOH we still have plenty of readily accessible iron and nickel left, so getting those materials back to earth would cause a huge market impact. But using iron and nickel in space still presents the huge problem of finding oxygen to turn it into steel. I guess you could go to Mars where huge amounts of oxygen are bound up in iron oxides. You could make steel on Mars, but then you have the problem of getting off Mars to use elsewhere unless the idea is to build there. Anyway, if we limited all exploration to endeavors that guaranteed a profit, we’d still be cracking rocks in the Great Rift Valley. There are still a lot of problems to solve in space exploration and exploitation, but solving those problems is the real profit, whether it produces an easy monetary return or not. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/35 "2012-04-27T15:02:16Z")
> [@Otara](#): > > And in the 15th Century with the technology available, it was true. And even more true for the Vikings who came before. And we cant hope for the equivalent of America to be found in between to save our bacon like it did for Columbus. Actually, in the 15th century, it was very profitable. For fishermen. It’s well established that the cod fishermen of the coasts of England and Spain (Breton, Basques) were well aware of Newfoundland and kept it secret. [http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic37-4-520.pdf](http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic37-4-520.pdf) This may well prove to be an equivalent. Read Phil’s article, it breaks it down by stages very well. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/36 "2012-04-27T15:18:46Z")
> [@CalMeacham](#): > > Although, as Verne pointed out, the addition of that much gold to the world’s economy would depress the price severely, making it _not_ worthwhile. Well, you couldn’t naively take the current gold price and multiply it by how much you find, but that’s not the same thing as whether it is worthwhile. If I found the world’s biggest oil field tomorrow in my back garden, the world price for oil would plummet but my field would still be incredibly valuable. Furthermore, I’m not obligated to sell everything I have immediately. The existence of my field would certainly have a big effect but by playing a long-term game I could help edge prices back up. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/37 "2012-04-27T15:33:06Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > If I found the world’s biggest oil field tomorrow in my back garden, the world price for oil would plummet but my field would still be incredibly valuable. I think a better analogy would be if you discovered that a common plant in your back garden produced lots of oil very inexpensively. Because it’s not just the large sudden supply which would cause prices to crash. It’s also the knowledge that oil can be obtained very inexpensively. The problem would be more acute with precious metals, since a lot of their market value stems from peoples’ belief that they are rare. I mean, suppose it were known for a fact that in 20 years, the market would be flooded with hundreds of tons of cheap gold. What would happen to gold prices today? Pretty clearly they would drop dramatically. > [@](#): > > The existence of my field would certainly have a big effect but by playing a long-term game I could help edge prices back up. Sure, if nobody else discovered backyard oil. If it turns out that asteroid mining is profitable, you can bet that there will be a gold rush, so to speak. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/38 "2012-04-27T16:04:29Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > I think a better analogy would be if you discovered that a common plant in your back garden produced lots of oil very inexpensively. > > Because it’s not just the large sudden supply which would cause prices to crash. It’s also the knowledge that oil can be obtained very inexpensively. True, but would that scenario play out immediately the first time anyone sources precious metals from space? I would say you’d need at least two successful projects before the bottom drops out of those markets completely and permanently. IOW, it could still be very profitable for the first venture or two. And taking the longer term view, if we could routinely mine precious metals then the world economy would become much bigger. There would be lots of projects and devices which would become feasible which are not feasible now – we’d be able to do more and own more (I mention this because it seems that many people view things like this through the lens of zero-sum) ---
**Author:** ![Smeghead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Smeghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smeghead)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/39 "2012-04-27T16:13:57Z")
I think this is a very encouraging development, though I’m skeptical as to whether it will ever result in a single actual space mission beyond perhaps shooting off a few unmanned probes. It has long seemed self-evident to me that humanity’s future must include expansion into space, and I find it sad that that attitude is now treated with scorn and cynicism. The solutions to so many of our problems are out there, waiting for us to come get them - nearly unlimited energy, for starters. Yes, the obstacles are massive. Yes, it will be expensive and difficult and dangerous to make that leap. But, really, we cannot remained tied to this planet for all that much longer. We need to make this step. Governments aren’t willing to make serious effort toward it any more. I’m just glad that someone is at least making noises about it. ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2012, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070/40 "2012-04-27T16:15:50Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Sure, if nobody else discovered backyard oil. If it turns out that asteroid mining is profitable, you can bet that there will be a gold rush, so to speak. Space gold may one day get cheaper than earth gold. But I can’t imagine it one day becoming dirt ass cheaper any day soon and that most likely it would not happen over night even if it did eventually happen. Space travel and exploration at small fraction of today’s cost is still gonna be pricey. Don’t get me wrong. I am all for it and I think we need to start trying this stuff out and one day it will be worth doing. But I think worrying about dirt cheap space gold collapsing the economy is about as important as worrying that warp drives will cause environment damage to the fabric of space. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asteroid-mining-can-this-be-profitable/620070.md?page=3)