# Astronomer accurately predicts Tokyo earthquake
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/astronomer-accurately-predicts-tokyo-earthquake/204065
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Created:** [September 26, 2003, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/astronomer-accurately-predicts-tokyo-earthquake/204065 "2003-09-26T23:18:31Z")
**Posts on this page:** 5
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@SkyBum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SkyBum)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2003, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/astronomer-accurately-predicts-tokyo-earthquake/204065/1 "2003-09-26T23:18:31Z")
I found this to be incredibly interesting.
From [this CNN report on 9/15](http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/09/15/japan.earthquake.ap/)
> [@](#):
>
> Astronomer tips major Tokyo quake
>
> Monday, September 15, 2003 Posted: 0527 GMT ( 1:27 PM HKT)
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> TOKYO, Japan (AP) – A Japanese researcher is causing a stir in Tokyo with a prediction based on his study of radio waves that a major destructive earthquake is highly likely to hit the city this week.
Followed by [this story](http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A4395-2003Sep26?language=printer), from the AP, released today.
> [@](#):
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> Strong Earthquake Injures 300 in Japan
>
> By GARY SCHAEFER
> The Associated Press
> Friday, September 26, 2003; 9:47 AM
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> TOKYO - The world’s most powerful earthquake in 2 1/2 years injured more than 300 people and knocked out power in northern Japan, but experts said it was lucky things weren’t far worse. The quake was centered deep under the ocean, and the region it shook was well prepared.
I suppose he could have just made an extremely lucky educated guess, but on the other hand, he may be onto something revolutionary in the field of earthquake prediction.
> [@](#):
>
> His theory: as pressure builds in the Earth’s crust before an earthquake, tiny cracks and magma movements can affect charged particles in the atmosphere, and the resulting electromagnetic changes can be picked up by radio receivers.
Heh, perhaps this agency…
> [@](#):
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> Yukio Misumi, a spokesman for the Central Meteorological Agency, said he was familiar with Kushida’s prediction but added that the agency was not doing anything in particular in response to it.
>
> “Our stance is that we are prepared for a magnitude-8 quake in Japan,” he said. “But presently, there is no scientific method or technology that would allow us to predict where or when a magnitude-7 might occur. We can’t predict earthquakes.”
…would benefit from changing their belief that they know everything, to a more realistic view that they understand very little. A closed mind is a dangerous thing.
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### Author:  [@Manduck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Manduck)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/astronomer-accurately-predicts-tokyo-earthquake/204065/2 "2003-09-27T00:49:54Z")
Considering that the quake did not hit Tokyo, and did not happen in the week of September 15 (as he predicted) I don’t think you can say he called this one.
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### Author:  [@The\_Man\_With\_The\_Golden\_Gun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Man_With_The_Golden_Gun)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/astronomer-accurately-predicts-tokyo-earthquake/204065/3 "2003-09-27T01:19:51Z")
He predicted Japan would have an earthquake? What next? Violence in the Middle East?
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### Author:  [@manhattan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/manhattan)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/astronomer-accurately-predicts-tokyo-earthquake/204065/4 "2003-09-27T01:26:47Z")
Oh, come on guys, be fair. Getting a big one like this within a week and a few hundred miles in the absence of volcanic activity would be a pretty stunning advance in earthquake prediction.
If. If his results are reproducible and reliable. I’d be curious to see the 8-level quakes he predicted which didn’t happen, for one. After a market crash, there are always people who “predicted” it; it usually turns out that they “predicted” 12 of the last two crashes.
But let’s see what else there is to say on this, hmm?
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### Author:  [@SkyBum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SkyBum)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/astronomer-accurately-predicts-tokyo-earthquake/204065/5 "2003-09-27T02:44:12Z")
I’m with **Manhattan** on this one.
Scientists have been trying to figure out how to predict a tremblor for some time now, with very little in the way of concrete results to show for their efforts. When I see someone come very close with a prediction while using a novel and presumably untried approach, I can’t help but sit up and take notice.
If your definition of accurate is narrowing it down to a city block and time of day then no, he did not predict it by any stretch of the imagination. However, given the current state of the art of earthquake prediction, I would have to say that he nailed it quite well. You have to admit that even a loose margin of accuracy in this field could prove to be very useful.
Unfortunately, the naysayers always jump to the forefront clamoring to discredit someone like this and often can hamper any advancement of the science.
He may very well have just been lucky. He may also be on to something meaningful that can be fine tuned and used to save lives. At least give the man the benefit of a doubt until he either proves his ideas to have merit or shows his methodology to be inaccurate.
Sheesh! It never ceases to amaze me how quick people are to discount evolving science as flat out quackery. Just look at history, it’s rife with examples. Many of the pioneers who made great advances to our understanding of science were laughed at and persecuted, only to be later vindicated by further study. Some were driven completely out of their fields and riduculed by the world at large. Let’s not forget, the world is round. Unfortunately, there were many who vehemently stood in the way of allowing this quackball theory to become accepted.
I’m afraid it’s human nature, and it will always stand in the way of progress. Not much has changed. Have you not noticed how quick the scientific community is to form a pile-on in reaction to new methods and ideas? Many times, rightfully so. But in many, many cases, they were wrong and simply fighting to cling to their incorrect belief system. Sometimes I think the scientific community is it’s own worst enemy.
At any rate, if this guy has merit, it will be observable over time. It not, he will prove his own self wrong (no help from the peanut gallery needed). Just wait it out and see. Why are there not more attitudes of “Hmmm…could very well be. I sure hope it pans out, guess we’ll have to wait and see.” I simply suggest that an open mind to any subject can facilitate progress. A closed mind simply has nothing to offer. No sense to make up your own minds so abruptly (unless of course you enjoy your closed minds just the way they are).