# At what point will the Dem field narrow? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 20, 2019, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798 "2019-06-20T13:09:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2019, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/41 "2019-06-28T02:08:29Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > After failing to be noticed much last night, I’d hope that Ryan and Delaney at least would have the sense to call it quits after a few days to think it over. After watching last night, I still can’t tell the difference between Julio Castro and Beto O’Rourke, and I’m not fluent enough in Spanish to know what they (or Cory Booker) was saying. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2019, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/42 "2019-06-28T03:09:58Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > After watching last night, I still can’t tell the difference between Julio Castro and Beto O’Rourke, and I’m not fluent enough in Spanish to know what they (or Cory Booker) was saying. O’Rourke made some grammatical errors. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2019, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/43 "2019-07-06T10:45:31Z")
From the [WaPo](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/05/when-do-struggling-candidates-have-bail-run-another-office/?utm_term=.310e4ec7880f): > [@](#): > > For former Colorado governor John Hickenlooper, who is polling at an average 0.2 percent, the pressure is coming from inside his own campaign to drop out and run for Senate. In Hickenlooper’s case, the calls are coming from inside the house. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2019, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/44 "2019-07-06T10:59:28Z")
Whenever the date is when the DNC announces who did and didn’t make the cutoff for this month’s debate, you’d hope that most of those who didn’t make the cut would have the sense to drop out, since they’ve already raised the bar for the September debate. IOW, if you don’t make the cut for July, you’re almost surely not going to make the cut for September, and are unlikely to do any better later on. And if you haven’t been able to get anyone to pay attention to you via retail politics, and you’re not going to get on TV to get your message across that way, it’s over for you. To keep running, you’d have to really love being ignored by people in Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2019, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/45 "2019-07-06T13:56:54Z")
The obvious top five are Harris, Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. Once you get past Mayor Pete, there aren’t that many with a realistic path. Julian Castro and Cory Booker are probably the candidates with the most potential to move up at some point later in the race. I think Yang, Gabbard, Klobuchar and Gillibrand will have poll numbers just above 1% and for just long enough to be seen and heard, but I don’t think they’re anywhere close to being legit contenders. I suspect most of the others I haven’t named will drop out by the end of the year, with probably half of those dropping out by fall. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2019, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/46 "2019-07-06T14:03:58Z")
And pointing out just for grins, my totally unscientific survey of online comments would have one conclude that the top candidates are Sanders, Gabbard, Yang, and Warren. Wonder why _that_ is? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2019, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/47 "2019-07-06T19:23:05Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The obvious top five are Harris, Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. Once you get past Mayor Pete, there aren’t that many with a realistic path. Julian Castro and Cory Booker are probably the candidates with the most potential to move up at some point later in the race. I think Yang, Gabbard, Klobuchar and Gillibrand will have poll numbers just above 1% and for just long enough to be seen and heard, but I don’t think they’re anywhere close to being legit contenders. I suspect most of the others I haven’t named will drop out by the end of the year, with probably half of those dropping out by fall. Not that he is a serious contender at this point, but I believe Beto’s poll numbers and fundraising are and will be stronger than the last four you listed. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2019, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/48 "2019-07-06T19:44:02Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > Caveat, what I’m talking about here is what the candidates call “suspending my campaign,” not formally quitting and being pressured to give their contributions back. > > Of the 24 (is it 24?) current candidates, you’ll have maybe five drop out by the end of the year because no one knows their name and they can’t raise money. > > The Iowa caucus is Feb.3 and the New Hampshire primary is Feb. 11. Anyone who finishes in the bottom five in both states will probably quit, because no one will care anymore. > > Nevada is Feb. 22 and S. Carolina is Feb. 29. There may be a couple more who drop out then, but just about everyone will hang around for. . . > > **SUPER TUESDAY** Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia primaries, all on March 3. > > There may be one or two optimists who keep on because the Rust Belt states haven’t been heard from yet. But Michigan and Ohio primaries are March 10, and Illinois is March 17, and those will make or break them. > > At that point it will be down to 2-3 real candidates, and others who stay in the campaign because a) they aren’t really running for President, they’re running for exposure or a cause > > b) they think their handful of delegates will matter if the party is deadlocked going into the convention (“spoiler” candidates or the “Anyone but \_\_\_\_” movement; or > > c) for some reason, they still have some money and nothing better to do with their time. Fucking awesome post, **Kent**! ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 10:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/49 "2019-07-07T10:47:37Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Not that he is a serious contender at this point, but I believe Beto’s poll numbers and fundraising are and will be stronger than the last four you listed. Possibly, but people are completely ignoring his campaign. O’Rourke has a small following that most likely comes from Texas or is familiar with his campaign against Ted Cruz, or maybe they just think he looks kinda like RFK and his campaign will eventually catch fire. It won’t. Few candidates have run a more disappointing campaign so far than Beto. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/50 "2019-07-07T19:10:13Z")
In one of our rare moments of agreement, what **asahi** said about Beto. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/51 "2019-07-08T10:44:22Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Possibly, but people are completely ignoring his campaign. O’Rourke has a small following that most likely comes from Texas or is familiar with his campaign against Ted Cruz, or maybe they just think he looks kinda like RFK and his campaign will eventually catch fire. It won’t. Few candidates have run a more disappointing campaign so far than Beto. I likewise agree. I have a few friends who are gaga for Beto but they’re Texas-based. All I hear from them is how he’s definitely the man to take on Trump and that the country isn’t ready for a gay mayor or an African-American woman and how it’s _so unfair_ that everyone is ganging up on Beto. O’Rourke barnstormed his campaign against Cruz but this one feels like he’s doing it under duress. I like the guy but I’m just not feeling it now, and apparently few outside Texas are either. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/52 "2019-07-08T11:19:54Z")
I’ve been running the Google Trends data on Beto and he consistently ranks near the bottom in Search – like for the past month or so. I sometimes had to run the searches in Trends again just to make sure I didn’t mistype. I didn’t. I acknowledge that this method of gauging interest probably requires a hell of a lot more rigor than what I’ve applied, but the way I figure it, it’s probably not a bad method to see which candidates are on people’s minds, for better or worse. From what I can tell, Beto’s campaign is as dead as a doornail. But I wanted to add that I really like Beto - he seems like a swell guy. Just not really presidential candidate material. I could see him holding a lower level cabinet post though. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/53 "2019-07-08T15:37:41Z")
It could be as early as today, according to Twitter, Eric Swalwell has canceled a trip to New Hampshire and is holding a press conference today. > ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/54 "2019-07-08T15:44:19Z")
This onion article is relevant to people dropping out of the race [Bobby Jindal Not Sure He Willing To Put Family Through 2-Month Presidential Campaign](https://politics.theonion.com/bobby-jindal-not-sure-he-willing-to-put-family-through-1819577411) Jindal actually lasted 5 months in the race but quit in Nov 2015 before all the primaries ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/55 "2019-07-08T16:28:29Z")
More on Swalwell. > [@](#): > > NEWS: Eric Swalwell plans to drop out of the presidential race and seek reelection to the House, according to a Capitol Hill source familiar with his intentions. An announcement is expected later today in Swalwell’s district in the East Bay area outside San Francisco. [Link to Tweet](https://twitter.com/markzbarabak/status/1148262537252757506). Tom Steyer may be jumping in, but probably as an independent. > [@](#): > > NEWS - @TomSteyer told his staff last week that he’s jumping into the presidential race after all, and is planning an announcement on Tuesday [Link to Tweet](https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1148054937689083904). ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/56 "2019-07-08T16:53:57Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > More on Swalwell. > > [Link to Tweet](https://twitter.com/markzbarabak/status/1148262537252757506). > > Tom Steyer may be jumping in, but probably as an independent. > > [Link to Tweet](https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1148054937689083904). Candidate: “I’m running for President!” Mal Reynolds: “Well, who in the damn galaxy ain’t?” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/57 "2019-07-08T18:36:19Z")
Had to Google it to see if Swalwell was in one of the debates two weeks ago (he was), or whether he was one of the candidates who was left out entirely. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/58 "2019-07-08T20:35:35Z")
My prediction is that if Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Sanders wins the nomination, a billionaire will follow through on running for president. It’s their way of ensuring that a socialist doesn’t “corrupt” modern gangster capitalism. I don’t know whether Steyer is serious, but I suspect that there is at least one billionaire out there egotistical and self-centered enough to put Trump back in power for 4 more years if democratic socialism becomes a thing. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/59 "2019-07-08T21:34:15Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > My prediction is that if Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Sanders wins the nomination, a billionaire will follow through on running for president. It’s their way of ensuring that a socialist doesn’t “corrupt” modern gangster capitalism. I don’t know whether Steyer is serious, but I suspect that there is at least one billionaire out there egotistical and self-centered enough to put Trump back in power for 4 more years if democratic socialism becomes a thing. All too real a possibility, unfortunately. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2019, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798/60 "2019-07-09T07:40:09Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Had to Google it to see if Swalwell was in one of the debates two weeks ago (he was), or whether he was one of the candidates who was left out entirely. IIRC Swalwell was the one who chose “Joe Biden’s old!” as the hill to die on at the debate. It did not go well for him. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/at-what-point-will-the-dem-field-narrow/835798.md?page=4)