At what point will the Global Warming Debate be resolved?

This is the most reprehensible idiocy, suggesting to ignore the problem not in spite that it’s serious, but because it’s serious. :smack:

No one knows for sure when the “tipping point” will be reached; moreover there may be multiple tipping points: Recovery might be possible from major deforestation, but not if there’s significant losses to the Northern ice caps.

(BTW, as I’ve speculated before, I think cooling agents, e.g. sulphates, will be deployed in the atmosphere mid-century; ocean acidity will be a bigger long-term concern.)

No argument. My point was merely that all too often, the events that change the mainstream opinion aren’t actually good examples.

Why did the public want to invade Iraq after 9/11?

Sorry, wrong thread! That was for rhetoric purposes only.

Hierarchy of Global Warming Denial:

When in ten more years the disastrous consquences of GW have not happened.

Since the disasters are predicted more than 10 years from now, wouldn’t that be a bit premature?

In any case, I like this plan. Let’s wait until the disasters happens, and then wish we’d done something. Good plan! Great risk management. And thanks for the disasters.

Debates aren’t won or lost in any meaningful sense, they just happen.

In this case, there was a debate between people on the side of global climate change, and morons who believed in some kind of steady climate state despite absolutely zero evidence of such a thing. But that wasn’t a debate between reasoning sides.

The only real debate has been about how the climate will change. It obviously will, and does, because we have a history of global climate change. And anyone who doubts that humans affect that change are equally foolish because we’ve seen the effects on the environment in so many ways already.

But what that change will be is a real debate because it’s all forecasting, based on measuring with limited tools.

IMHO, climatologists who have legitimate arguments on either side of this issue should stop using their cherry picked data to make forecasts and do a better job explaining the science behind their forecasting. I’ve seen tons of datapoints that tell me nothing, but very little thoughtful explanation of what datapoints would be useful, and how they would be arrived at. Now I’m not looking very hard, but when it comes to meaningful results here, public opinion must be consolidated, and the public has little to work with. I think the vast majority of people know that the climate is changing, but they don’t know if there is a reasonable way to predict what the change will be, how fast it will happen, what the effects will be, or if anything can be done about it. And, IMHO, I don’t think science has figured those things out either. A preponderous of scientific opinions that the earth will get warmer with disastrous results someday, and maybe we can invent a technology to prevent that isn’t the kind of useful information that will get people to change their minds or act.

There are two (general) aspects that are perpetuating so-called “debate.” First, there is tremendous money in obfuscation. Short of a technological revolution in non-carbon energy sources, the funding of non-science will continue to make rational discussion impossible.

Second, personal pride perpetuates ignorance. People’s political alignment and past statements by and large calcify their stance and they refuse to see or irrationally refute evidence to the contrary. Hahahah… yes, good one there, you’re right that this can technically be said of both sides. Whatever. The point remains that the overwhelming evidence supporting the fundamentals–evidence that is based on science–cannot stand up to some people’s inherent desire to bury their heads and hold their view in the face of losing an argument.

Though some of the second cohort change their mind on their own, the only hope is ensuring solid science education in lower and middle schools (a solid grasp of 10th grade Earth Science is all that’s really necessary to understand and follow the debate; the lack of such basic education is a fundamental weakness of our country). It is up to time to replace emotional-based opinions with science-based decision making.

So without an amazing breakthrough and without mass scientific awakening, I daresay the “debate” will continue on for at least a generation.
On the pragmatic side, I think I either started a Pit thread or wanted to on my own caving. A year or so ago (or longer?) I began shifting my policy work’s emphasis from mitigation to adaptation. I no longer believe the world will pull its head out of its ass long enough to do anything more than temper new emissions by some token amount (again, barring an unforeseen event or advance). Hence my advocating that resources be directed more to adaptation.

I think it’s simpler still. It’ll be resolved when the economic cost to the deniers is higher (for whatever reason) for denying it than for fixing it. The “debate” has long since boiled down to science on one side and money on the other. When the effects become bad enough that it costs more to ignore it, the money will switch sides and the obfuscation will stop.

Until then, money is far more powerful than science for swaying public opinion, which has allowed it to dominate even from a postion of factual weakness.

Could you point to a nice, unbiased source that compares total funding of pro and against?

You’ve got to be fucking kidding me.

oops never mind

So that means no quote and only feel-good phrases?

How to compare them? Does grant money for scientific research go into the “pro” column? It’s mostly propaganda money in the “against” column. See here:

See also here:

BTW the Frontline documentary also touched on the funding.

As usual, some do think that ignoring what cites already posted say would make them look as having a good argument.

OK, hypothetically-what would happen if global temperatures begin to decline? And not for a few years- suppose a trend begins, and continues for decades? Would this be attributed to “climate change”-or would the fundamental hypothesis be questioned?

As the discussions on Geo-engineering show, a wished for temperature decline ignores the other evil twin of AGW: ocean acidification, reducing emissions is important not just for global temperature reasons. As reported before, the trend is not going down, and even a latest paper reports how unnatural the current warming trend looks.

The old chestnut of a point here from skeptics is to report that of course climate has changed in the past, but that line of discussion is made usually forgetting that the reasons for the current change are not what the scientists report that caused climate changed in the past.

The natural trend for the last 8000 years was for a very gradual cooling, the warming happening right now can not be explained with natural forces detected now.

Now, if a cooling trend happens for decades of course there will be a need to figure out what natural forces are causing that downward trend, but the problem is that the possible mechanisms reported by skeptics for this to take place have failed many times to keep it going down. The best the natural forces have been doing is to make an upward going escalator.

Real science is honest: everyone would say, “Okay, we didn’t expect that…” And then they’d do all that is humanly possible to find out why.

Science discards hypotheses all the time. We’ve lived through some of the more profound examples of this. The discovery that ulcers were caused by a virus: this went from total rejection to total acceptance in about ten years. Same with plate tectonics: everybody laughed…at first.

So, yeah, sure: if the curves suddenly reversed, the science would have to be re-figured. There are still a few people who suggest that anti-matter may have anti-gravity properties; when somebody finally accumulates a couple grams of anti-matter, and it floats to the top of its containment field (one hopes non-catastrophically!) all the world’s Einsteinians will have to say, “Doggone! We were wrong!”

(“We wuz robbed!”)

In a sense, your question seems to presume dishonesty on the part of the world’s scientists. “If they were shown wrong, would they admit it?” Hell yes, they would. That’s what science is!

That’s what bugs me most about the skeptics’ insistence that the pro-AGW side is motivated by money. If a climatologist could prove that humans aren’t causing climate change, he/she would instantly be one of the most well-known scientists in the world and would be able to retire to their own private island.

So, a quick tally makes it 250 million dollars for about 100 institution in ten years for a grand total of 250,000 per institution per year, not exactly the Manhattan Project.
“An inconvenient Truth” made 50 mill.
NOAA’s budget is over 5 billion a year.
C’mon

What bugs ME is the warmists insistence that septics can only be motivated by oil money, evil , or ignorance.

Septics, heh. What we “warmists” see is world temperatures by year plotted on a graph showing a consistent upward trend, and what we hear is, “No it’s not there.” “The data has been faked.” “1998 was the peak and it’s been cooler since then.” All these observations are based on ignorance, willful or genuine, so what do you suggest that we insist is motivating you?