# Attempting to stop Hispanic population growth = electoral doom for GOP **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 24, 2010, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350 "2010-06-24T13:57:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2010, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/61 "2010-06-30T19:34:42Z")
> [@Huerta88](#): > > I don’t even know what that means. Are you under the impression that civilians can sue PDs for ineffective enforcement of the law? > > Because . . . no, they can’t. [Here’s a cite.](http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/04/22/20100422arizona-immigration-bill-police-impact.html) > [@](#): > > The bill also would allow Arizonans to sue agencies if they don’t believe an agency is complying with the law. This has been covered everywhere. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2010, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/62 "2010-07-01T15:20:04Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Oh, I understand it very well. No you don’t. You thought that people had to carry their passport with them as proof of their legal right to be here. If you had read the law, then you would have understood that a valid driver’s license is all that is required. Conspiracy theories do not equal understanding. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![theR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/977dab/32.png) [@theR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/theR)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2010, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/63 "2010-07-01T19:12:10Z")
> [@Wilbo523](#): > > No you don’t. You thought that people had to carry their passport with them as proof of their legal right to be here. If you had read the law, then you would have understood that a valid driver’s license is all that is required. > > Conspiracy theories do not equal understanding. :rolleyes: You’re wrong. There is a big difference between a valid Arizona driver’s license, which is one of the acceptable forms of identification, and “a valid driver’s license”, which is what you stated. The following is also listed: “If the entity requires proof of legal presence in the United States before issuance, any valid United States federal, state or local government issued identification.” That makes no sense to me, though. Proof of legal presence before issuance is not the same as proof of legal presence all the way through expiration, and I’m also not sure how they police will keep track of which state licenses meet the requirement and which won’t. But the bottom line is that I don’t believe my driver’s license would be accepted, nor would the ones from a number of other states. ---
**Author:** ![theR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/977dab/32.png) [@theR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/theR)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2010, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/64 "2010-07-01T19:19:13Z")
> [@theR](#): > > You’re wrong. There is a big difference between a valid Arizona driver’s license, which is one of the acceptable forms of identification, and “a valid driver’s license”, which is what you stated. The following is also listed: > > “If the entity requires proof of legal presence in the United States before issuance, any valid United States federal, state or local government issued identification.” > > That makes no sense to me, though. Proof of legal presence before issuance is not the same as proof of legal presence all the way through expiration, and I’m also not sure how they police will keep track of which state licenses meet the requirement and which won’t. > > But the bottom line is that I don’t believe my driver’s license would be accepted, nor would the ones from a number of other states. Actually, after looking it up I may be wrong and my state may require proof of lawful status. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2010, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/65 "2010-07-02T05:09:30Z")
You really can’t predict the future, but my understanding is hispanics have always been pretty much 2-1 in favor of the dems going back to Reagan. Then Bush won some over but still lost them about 3-2, so he lost them 55 to 40 rather than the 62 to 35 that was lost to the GOP before and after Bush. [![](https://electoral-vote.com/evp2010/Images/Nonwhite-vote.jpg) ](https://electoral-vote.com/evp2010/Images/Nonwhite-vote.jpg) But who knows what will happen. Hopefully the GOP alienates hispanics for a long time with their xenophobic platforms and hostility to the working class. But it is hard to tell. Even so, it matters where the hispanic vote is. A hispanic presence in new mexico, nevada, arizona, texas & colorado will be big for house, senate & presidential elections. But growth in California won’t make a difference since Cali is already a blue state. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2010, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/66 "2010-07-02T05:18:19Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > The GOP will become whiter as everyone nonwhite moves away from it, certainly; but the white American population will not necessarily become more Republican. As pointed out in post #27, the GOP’s base is increasingly the white working class and lower-middle class, which is a **shrinking** sector of the white population. The professional class is leaving the GOP due to their attitudes about religion, science, women, governing, etc. So that is going to take a large number of whites with it. People with advanced degrees and professional careers generally won’t stomach Sarah Palin, creationism, the rapture, climate change denial, xenophobia, mindless slogans instead of competent governance, etc. The concept of the GOP doing well with white voters is more geographic anyway. In the deep south the GOP wins 90% of the white vote. In new england they win 35%. So if anything I assume whites will leave the GOP (outside the south) as they move further into tea bag territory. I don’t see the south switching to the dems anytime soon, but the GOP will likely lose more and more in the midwest and southwest as non-whites grow and as younger whites end up repulsed by the current GOP. ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2010, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/67 "2010-07-02T13:16:48Z")
For those interested in data, now’s a great time for me to shill for [New Faces, New Voices](http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9158.html), written by the excellent political scientist Mike Alvarez and my lovely and talented former colleague Melissa Abrajano. > [@](#): > > Making up 14.2 percent of the American population, Hispanics are now the largest minority group in the United States. Clearly, securing the Hispanic vote is more important to political parties than ever before. Yet, despite the current size of the Hispanic population, is there a clear Hispanic politics? Who are Hispanic voters? What are their political preferences and attitudes, and why? The first comprehensive study of Hispanic voters in the United States, New Faces, New Voices paints a complex portrait of this diverse and growing population. > > Examining race, politics, and comparative political behavior, Marisa Abrajano and R. Michael Alvarez counter the preconceived notion of Hispanic voters as one homogenous group. The authors discuss the concept of Hispanic political identity, taking into account the ethnic, generational, and linguistic distinctions within the Hispanic population. They compare Hispanic registration, turnout, and participation to those of non-Hispanics, consider the socioeconomic factors contributing to Hispanics’ levels of political knowledge, determine what segment of the Hispanic population votes in federal elections, and explore the prospects for political relationships among Hispanics and non-Hispanics. Finally, the authors look at Hispanic opinions on social and economic issues, factoring in whether these attitudes are affected by generational status and ethnicity. It’s brand new. ---
**Author:** ![Susanann](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7ab992/32.png) [@Susanann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Susanann)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2010, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/68 "2010-07-03T19:48:43Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > My position: You can’t win Hispanic votes through anti-immigration (even if the word “illegal” is stuck in there) legislation. And you can’t realistically halt the growth of the Hispanic population through legislation. Hispanics will never vote Republican. The only chance Republicans will ever have is to stop all future immigration immediately, and then also to deport all illegals in this country. Unless they do those 2 things straight-away, the Republican Party will become extinct rather quickly. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2010, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/69 "2010-07-03T20:10:30Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > For the GOP to stay competitive, they need to do something about one or both of these trends. They either need to curb the growth of the Hispanic population, or they need to convert the growing population into a more equitable split between the parties. You’re missing the third option: allow increased immigration from Northern Europe. Especially with Britain going down the tubes, Germans getting worried about Europe, and Poles looking for a better deal. ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Girl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7bcc69/32.png) [@Mighty\_Girl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Girl)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2010, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/70 "2010-07-04T05:47:23Z")
What makes you think Europeans are going to become Republicans? Is it because they are (generally) white? If so, I got news for you, Democrats are to the right of European tastes already. ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/71 "2010-07-05T09:59:49Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > :rolleyes: Haven’t you learned by now that VDARE is not a cite? Actually, these things stand on the substantive arguments, not name calling. Sailer’s analysis of electoral trends & family formation are cited by the likes of Andrew Gelman professor of statistics at Columbia University. His arguments may offend you Brain Glutton, but I’d like to see you argue with his numbers. Similarly, economist Ed Rubenstein’s articles on vdare are worth checking out in terms of the labour market & immigration. > [@](#): > > As veteran truth-teller Thomas Sowell pointed out recently, “Phony arguments and phony words are the norm in discussions of immigration policy.” And no myth has become more entrenched in the media than that California demonstrates that cracking down on illegal immigration would be political suicide for Republicans. > > For example, reporter Dan Balz proclaimed in the Washington Post following the Senate’s April 6 immigration “compromise” (i.e., surrender), “GOP officials point to California as the example they hope to avoid. Twelve years ago, then-Gov. Pete Wilson (R) pushed an anti-immigration ballot measure that sought to deny state assistance to undocumented immigrants. The initiative passed and helped Wilson win reelection, but it triggered a surge of new Democratic Latino voters in subsequent elections that have left Republicans deep in the minority in the state.” > > This conventional wisdom is actually a bizarrely demonological distortion of the history of America’s largest, most visible state. Instead of one man somehow permanently warping the political destiny of 37 million people, California’s shift from the Republican to the Democratic column reflects tectonic demographic shifts, largely driven by immigration, that are spreading nationwide, and thus demand honest study. [http://www.amconmag.com/article/2006/may/08/00009/](http://www.amconmag.com/article/2006/may/08/00009/) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/72 "2010-07-05T13:30:36Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > You’re missing the third option: allow increased immigration from Northern Europe. Especially with Britain going down the tubes, Germans getting worried about Europe, and Poles looking for a better deal. I really doubt we’re going to see much increased immigration pressure from Europe. More importantly, the [quota system](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_Act_of_1924) designed to keep America white [was abolished in 1965.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_Act_of_1965) At this point it would be politically impossible (as it should be) to enact an immigration policy that favors Europeans over Third Worlders. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/73 "2010-07-05T14:23:31Z")
> [@Susanann](#): > > Hispanics will never vote Republican And Massachussetts’ US Senate seat was 100% safe Democrat. The thing is the GOP knows that when it comes to the “values” platform, they could really stand to make huge gains among the Latino population; but the question is if this would be at the expense of having to back open borders or of alienating their White base. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/74 "2010-07-05T14:36:03Z")
Missed Edit Window: Which (open borders, alienating the White base) are NOT really their only choices to please the Latino population, but they know the extreme factions would get it simplified into those terms. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/75 "2010-07-05T14:36:16Z")
> [@Mighty\_Girl](#): > > What makes you think Europeans are going to become Republicans? They might; they might not. But they’re more likely to than Hispanics. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350/76 "2010-07-05T14:39:36Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I really doubt we’re going to see much increased immigration pressure from Europe. More importantly, the [quota system](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_Act_of_1924) designed to keep America white [was abolished in 1965.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_Act_of_1965) At this point it would be politically impossible (as it should be) to enact an immigration policy that favors Europeans over Third Worlders. Never mind that. Have you looked at how hard it is for someone from northern Europe to immigrate at all? And if you’re from Britain, you can plain forget it unless you’re sent by your company. What happened to ‘Send me your…’? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/attempting-to-stop-hispanic-population-growth-electoral-doom-for-gop/544350.md?page=3)