On a kickoff the kicker has more room to run up before the kick, and doesn’t have 11 huge dudes running toward him trying to block the kick.
The Detroit Lions-Minnesota Vikings game this past Sunday illustrated this situation. Detroit was leading 24-21 with 1:14 left in the game. The were facing 4th and 4 from the Vikings’ 36 yard line. Minnesota was out of time outs. Detroit had three choices:
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Go for it. Detroit had converted several 4th downs so far (I think 4 out of 6, though the last one got stuffed). If they make it, they can run out the clock. If not, Minnesota takes over at line of scrimmage, most probably the 36.
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Punt, hoping to pin the Vikings deep. At worst, you’re forcing the Vikings to drive 80 yards for the win, 40 for the tie.
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Kick a 54-yard field goal. The kicker had already missed from 48 yards. If converted, it forces the Vikings to score a touchdown to win, so a field goal won’t tie. Missing said field goal would give the Vikings excellent field position at their own 44-yard line.
Detroit went for the field goal and missed. Three plays later, the Vikings scored on a blown coverage and won the game 28-24.
Much criticism of the coach ensued.
Justifiably so. With that amount of time left, and the Vikings with no timeouts, it’s absolutely about what field position you will be giving to the Vikings.
Giving them a bonus of 25-ish yards, when you miss the field goal, is poor strategy, and the fact that the Lions’ kicker, Austin Siebert, is only 2 out of 6 in his NFL career from 50+ (with a long of 53) would indicate, to me, that the kick was going to be a low-percentage play.
I have no idea if the stats back me up, but I’ve long thought that if you’re up 3 near the end of the game, kicking another field goal is the worst idea. Once the other teams knows they need a touchdown to win, they play lot more aggressively as opposed to going for the field goal and overtime.
Yeah, I posted something about this in the Week 3 thread. A few years ago, the end of the Super Bowl was a similar situation, where Green Bay kicked a late field goal to go up 6, and did hold on to win. At that time, I read some analysis that teams with the ball down 3 late actually win less often than teams with the ball down 6.
So you would have punted? Try for the coffin corner. I believe the Lions’ punter, Jack Fox, is highly regarded.
Yup, I likely would have punted. Going for it, and failing, on 4th and 4 is nearly as bad as the missed field goal.
Punters rarely try for the coffin corner anymore; when they’re trying for a short punt, hoping to pin the opponent deep in their end of the field, they now use a technique called a “drop punt,” adapted from Australian football. In a drop punt, the punter makes a high punt in the center of the field, which doesn’t “turn over” as it reaches the top of its arc. When done correctly, it’ll land in play, before the goal line, and will give the punter’s teammates enough time to get under it, and down the punt.
This is one of those yes-but-no things. Perhaps teams win less often when leading by 6, but no team or head coach in their right mind is ever going to choose a 3-point lead over a 6-point one.