# Aug. 2007 - Who did you think the nominees would be? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 17, 2015, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040 "2015-08-17T03:42:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2015, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/1 "2015-08-17T03:42:12Z")
I remember that I thought Hillary would hold out and win the Democratic nomination. [She was polling 12-15 points over Obama with Gore and Edwards still hitting noticeable numbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_2008_presidential_candidates). I thought she would be the establishment candidate but when the primaries started I began to realize she wasn’t. It’s making me wonder again now, what has Hillary ever done for the Democratic Party? I’m not sure who I thought would take the Republican race, but I didn’t think it would be McCain. [Giuliani was around 30% with Thompson and Romney also in double digits.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_2008_presidential_candidates) I knew Giuliani couldn’t hold up, I probably thought Romney was most likely to pull it off. When the primaries started McCain pulled ahead. The conventional wisdom was that it was McCain’s turn. But I think they felt bad about not supporting him against Bush, especially after the way Bush turned out. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2015, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/2 "2015-08-17T20:04:33Z")
I thought right from the start that Obama was more likely than Clinton. I wasn’t sure he’d win, since there’s always the possibility of a dark horse (and Obama’s horse was pretty dark to begin with), but Clinton never seemed inevitable to me. On the republican side, I expected Giuliani to do a lot better than he actually did. A campaign of “noun, verb, 9-11” wasn’t actually unreasonable, given that he really did do a good job of keeping his head on 9-11. I think what sunk him wasn’t his harping on 9-11, but on his forgetting that it ever happened. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2015, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/3 "2015-08-17T21:52:13Z")
Given my 2007, I wasn’t paying much attention beyond my side of the aisle. ISTR thinking McCain would get it but he’s who I supported so it may have just been wishful thinking. I wasn’t paying enough attention to the other side to come close to making a prediction. I honestly couldn’t have told you anything about Obama beyond relatively junior congress critter seeking the Democratic nomination through most of the year. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2015, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/4 "2015-08-17T22:10:16Z")
I don’t really remember. Yeah, so just ignore this post. I guess that’s after Giuliani was out? Because I think I was imagining him as the nominee a year before that. But by that time, um, I was probably rooting for Obama or one of the other Anyone But Clinton candidates, so, yeah, I was probably half-expecting him to take it on the Dem side. [del]And if not Rudy, I don’t know. At some point I probably expected Rmoney to have a better than usual chance, as he eventually was the Hillary Clinton in that race (the one everyone was trying to be the alternative to) but maybe not that far out.[/del] No, wait, that was 2011. No, McCain was clearly the best choice for the Pubs, and the best liked, but they had no chance in 2008 anyway. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2015, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/5 "2015-08-17T22:54:54Z")
Clinton and McCain, but not with certainty. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2015, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/6 "2015-08-17T23:23:46Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I thought right from the start that Obama was more likely than Clinton. I wasn’t sure he’d win, since there’s always the possibility of a dark horse (and Obama’s horse was pretty dark to begin with), but Clinton never seemed inevitable to me. I wish I had been that optimistic at the time. I did see something in Obama but didn’t have faith in the American people. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/7 "2015-08-18T01:31:14Z")
I can’t find August, but [here’s](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9266243&postcount=9)my “slightly fanciful” December 2007 prediction: > [@Richard Parker](#): > > My slightly fanciful predictions: > > Dems: The combination of the longest primary season ever, the celebrity status of Obama, and the fact that those favoring electability are already behind Hillary and unlikely to believe a black man is electable mean that Obama actually gets less of a boost from his victories in Iowa and New Hampshire than history would dictate. It’s enough to win him NH and SC, but not NV. For the first time in a long time (ever?), states after the first four actually matter. Hillary takes some big ones (Florida), but Obama does well enough in the non-winner-take-all states (NY, for example) to remain competitive after Feb. 5. Edwards, a fighter, is alive until Feb. 5 because of his second place in Iowa and strong showing in Nevada and South Carolina. In a brokered convention Edwards ends up giving his delegates to Obama. Obama wins. > > Pubs: Huckabee holds on to his recent lead in Iowa, but only just barely as the momentum shifts against him now that he is thrust into the spotlight. Even with the boost from Iowa, he does particularly poorly in NH. Romney takes NH with Giuliani second. South Carolina is a total clusterfuck, but Romney takes it and Huckabee takes second. McCain is out, throwing his support to no one. Huckabee and Romney’s increased national exposure does not treat them well. Giuliani, still alive as the ultimate comeback kid, crushes everyone on Feb. 5 and has incredible momentum thereafter. Giuliani wins. > > Giuliani’s victory leads to much talk of a religious right third party, but it never materializes. Obama’s experience issue turns out not to matter very much compared to Giuliani’s highest office as mayor. Obama’s drug use and Giuliani’s adultery lead neither man to raise character as a significant issue, though outside groups try unsuccessfully to do so. On the issues, with abortion and global warming effectively neutralized, the general election focuses on immigration, Iraq, and health care. Despite the apparently limited success of the surge in reducing violence, the lack of any political progress makes voters lean toward Obama on Iraq, but not strongly. Immigration mobilizes Rudy’s base, but the Supreme Court’s gun control decision in August (which limits itself to DC) highlight’s Rudy’s position and dampens his support among hard-core conservatives. In the end, the result comes down to how much voters think Obama’s health care plan will cost, and whether they are willing to pay for it in taxes. They are. Obama wins. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/8 "2015-08-18T01:57:49Z")
Here’s another bonus from the archives… **Measure for Measure** predicted Obama in [June 2006](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=7476024&postcount=3), though not quite in the right election! > [@Measure for Measure](#): > > Thirteen year forecast: > > John McCain will be elected President and pledge to continue the sound money policies of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who was just appointed by GW Bush in early 2006. > > McCain will disappoint liberals. Nationally, he will have a spell of wild popularity, followed by mere popularity. When he is merely popular, pundits will opine how interesting and surprising that is, though it will be neither. McCain will be in office for two terms. Donald L. Kohn will be Bernanke’s successor No he won’t, he will be a little old and long-time Fed officers rarely reach the pinnacle of the Fed. > > The country will grow tired of congressional Republicans, notwithstanding tiresome comparisons of McCain with Eisenhower. Barak Obama will be elected President and maintain the sound money policies of his predecessor. > > During this period, the US will not win the World Cup. Core inflation will remain below 5%. Target inflation levels may rise after a few years (from 1-2% to 2-3%) as they are probably too low now, but don’t count on it. Fed Chairman like to appear hawkish. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/9 "2015-08-18T11:56:03Z")
I predicted McCain vs. Obama correctly, but was sure McCain was going to beat him. I thought Giuliani had a good shot, but his strategy of waiting until Florida to compete was just a terrible decision. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/10 "2015-08-18T12:05:15Z")
Like most people, I thought it would be Hillary v the 9/11 ghoul. I was so impressed by Obama’s 2004 keynote that I said here’s the first black president but I didn’t think he’d be ready in 2008. Giuliani thought he could coast in by the magic of 9/11 and ran possibly the worst primary campaign in history. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/11 "2015-08-18T12:14:58Z")
I wouldn’t call it the worst, since there were no major gaffes or scandals. The worst strategy ever, to be sure, but he didn’t stumble the way Rick Perry or Ed Muskie did. I always felt Rudy should have run again in 2012. His only real mistake was to skip the first four states. All it takes to rectify that is to not skip the first four states next time. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/12 "2015-08-18T12:37:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > All it takes to rectify that is to not skip the first four states next time. That 9/11 and 9/11 gain 9/11 the 9/11 ability 9/11 to 9/11 make 9/11 a 9/11 speech 9/11 without 9/11 patting 9/11 himself 9/11 on 9/11 the 9/11 back 9/11 for 9/11 happening 9/11 to 9/11 be 9/11 the 9/11 mayor 9/11 during 9/11 a 9/11 terrorist 9/11 attack. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/13 "2015-08-18T13:42:27Z")
My gf had been following Obama for some time and felt it was important for the country that he receive the nomination. She put her money where her mouth was and made a donation that made me question her sanity. Right up to election night I was afraid she’d end up dissapointed. I correctly predicted McCain. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/14 "2015-08-18T17:38:26Z")
I didn’t pay much attention to the Democratic side, but I did tend to assume Hillary would take it on the assumption that voters were less biased against white women than black men. (Though, admittedly, I don’t think such biases are as big a deal as many people around these boards assume. I wasn’t shocked that Obama took it from her.) On my Republican side… in August of 2007, there really was no doubt for me that it was going to be McCain. I think around that time I still preferred Huckabee, but I didn’t really think he’d get it. I never saw Giuliani as a serious candidate. It was a subtle marketing campaign for Giuliani Partners security consulting services. I simply can’t see it in any other light. From a less subjective point of view: he’d already lost one campaign to Hillary Clinton (for NY Senator), why play that out again on a national stage? ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/15 "2015-08-18T21:35:47Z")
I didn’t predict a Republican candidate, but I didn’t think it would be McCain. This is what I said about him: > [@](#): > > I think McCain is done. Too old, no natural constituency. He’s pissed off the right with his support of illegal immigration, and pissed off the left with his support of the war. He’s put himself in a corner I don’t think he can get out of. And you know, that still seems like a reasonable analysis. So I’m not sure what the hell happened. He won by default as the other candidates blundered or flamed out? The establishment poured all of its effort into him as the least-bad option? For the Democrats: > [@](#): > > On the Democrat side, you’ve got to go with either Hillary or Obama at this time. Hillary is a triangulating, professional politician who has a huge organization of professionals around her. She knows how to work her ass off. Obama has the ‘it’ factor. He’s a great speaker, he’s a fresh face, and he’s smart. > … > As of today, my best guess would be that Hillary wins the nomination and goes on to be the next President. But the error bars I’d put around that estimate are huge. Six months from now, the race could look completely different. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/16 "2015-08-18T22:21:58Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I didn’t predict a Republican candidate, but I didn’t think it would be McCain. This is what I said about him: > > > [@](#): > > > > I think McCain is done. Too old, no natural constituency. He’s pissed off the right with his support of illegal immigration, and pissed off the left with his support of the war. He’s put himself in a corner I don’t think he can get out of. > > And you know, that still seems like a reasonable analysis. So I’m not sure what the hell happened. He won by default as the other candidates blundered or flamed out? The establishment poured all of its effort into him as the least-bad option? I’m really having trouble remembering much about the 2008 Republican nomination contest. It looks like Romney was the only actual credible contender, but I can’t remember how strong his campaign was or what I even thought about him at the time. Seems similar to Bush’s position now: he’s not a great candidate, but no one else is really in a position to take it either, so… default. On the Democratic side, I clearly remember believing it was going to be Hillary’s, and this Obama fellow would make a great 2016 candidate. > [@adaher](#): > > I predicted McCain vs. Obama correctly, but was sure McCain was going to beat him. Consider me shocked that you thought McCain would beat Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/17 "2015-08-18T23:01:29Z")
I thought Clinton and McCain, with McCain having a decent shot, right up until the moment he picked Palin as a running mate. I knew he was toast at that moment, regardless of who got the Dem nod. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2015, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/18 "2015-08-18T23:42:58Z")
Wasn’t paying attention too much, but I knew it would be Obama. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/19 "2015-08-19T01:21:58Z")
I knew right away when he declared, that Obama was going to win the nomination and the election. Now I may well have backtracked on that certainty by August 2007, but I’m too lazy to dig up my posts from that time. McCain, though - I thought McCain was dead in the water by August 2007. I’m sure I thought someone else would get the nomination, but I wasn’t sure who. I remember being sure that Huckabee would have stood a better chance if he’d simply skipped NH after winning Iowa, and spent that week in a state he might’ve been able to win. ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040/20 "2015-08-19T03:38:02Z")
Those of you saying McCain–are you sure? Summer of '07 was a very difficult time for the senator. He ran out of money and had to “restructure” his campaign, laying people off and cutting expenses to the bone. His poll numbers were very low…I don’t recall all of the details, but there were plenty of articles pretty much writing him off at that point. I don’t remember who I thought would be the Republican nominee at that moment, but it would not have been McCain. On the Dem side, I thought for a long while it would be Edwards…the one I liked least of the three, but I believed at the time that he was eminently electable in. Other primaries and general election and would be the likely nominee. Ha! Shows how much I knew. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aug-2007-who-did-you-think-the-nominees-would-be/728040.md?page=2)