# August 2020 Swing State Confidence Pool **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 24, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907 "2020-08-24T18:14:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/1 "2020-08-24T18:14:35Z")
Consider these 15 swing states/districts: Arizona Florida Georgia Iowa Maine Maine CD-02 Michigan Minnesota Nebraska CD-02 New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Texas Wisconsin For each of these choose whether the will go D or R in the 2020 presidential election, and then assign a confidence value from 1 to 15 to each. Each confidence value must be used exactly once. Points in the amount of the confidence value will be awarded for correct guesses and incorrect guesses will earn zero points i.e. assign 15 points to the race where you are most confident of the outcome and 1 point to the race where you are least confident. The total number of points earned will be used to rank entries from best to worst. My entry (subject to change, see below) looks like this… | Race | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 3 | | Florida | D | 2 | | Georgia | R | 6 | | Iowa | R | 10 | | Maine | D | 15 | | Maine CD-02 | R | 9 | | Michigan | D | 11 | | Minnesota | D | 12 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D | 4 | | New Hampshire | D | 14 | | North Carolina | R | 1 | | Ohio | R | 5 | | Pennsylvania | D | 8 | | Texas | R | 13 | | Wisconsin | D | 7 | Entries will be accepted until August 31, 11:59:59 PM CDT. To enter, just post in this thread. Entires can be updated by posting again before the deadline. Most recent pre-deadline post will be the official entry. Per board rules there is no prize, monetary or otherwise, for winning this competition. [May thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693) [June thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840) [July thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/915865) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2020, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/2 "2020-08-24T18:56:02Z")
My entry (very optimistic, on purpose): | Race | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 7 | | Florida | D | 9 | | Georgia | D | 4 | | Iowa | R | 2 | | Maine | D | 14 | | Maine CD-02 | D | 3 | | Michigan | D | 15 | | Minnesota | D | 12 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D | 8 | | New Hampshire | D | 13 | | North Carolina | D | 6 | | Ohio | D | 5 | | Pennsylvania | D | 10 | | Texas | R | 1 | | Wisconsin | D | 11 | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2020, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/3 "2020-08-24T19:05:58Z")
I like your optimism. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2020, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/4 "2020-08-24T19:34:17Z")
| Race | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 2 | | Florida | D | 7 | | Georgia | R | 12 | | Iowa | R | 8 | | Maine | D | 15 | | Maine CD-02 | R | 6 | | Michigan | D | 14 | | Minnesota | D | 10 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D | 3 | | New Hampshire | D | 13 | | North Carolina | R | 1 | | Ohio | R | 4 | | Pennsylvania | D | 11 | | Texas | R | 5 | | Wisconsin | D | 9 | Partially based on my prediction, but also some betting strategy. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/5 "2020-08-25T11:54:19Z")
I’ll do it soon. I’d like to point out that I was bearish on North Carolina (from a Dem-hopeful perspective) going all the way back to May. I knew the polls there would revert to the mean (I.e., slightly pro-Trump), and indeed they have. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/6 "2020-08-25T14:58:59Z")
| Race | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 9 | | Florida | D | 7 | | Georgia | R | 4 | | Iowa | D | 2 | | Maine | D | 12 | | Maine CD-02 | D | 5 | | Michigan | D | 15 | | Minnesota | D | 14 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D | 3 | | New Hampshire | D | 13 | | North Carolina | D | 8 | | Ohio | D | 1 | | Pennsylvania | D | 11 | | Texas | R | 6 | | Wisconsin | D | 10 | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/7 "2020-08-25T18:52:33Z")
Here are all the entries from previous months in one place if anyone is curious. | Name | Lance\_Turbo | septimus | JKellyMap | BobLibDem | Fretful\_Porpentine | FlikTheBlue | Lance\_Turbo | JKellyMap | Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | TroutMan | BobLibDem | Munch | ShadowFacts | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | Lance\_Turbo | JKellyMap | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Month | May | May | May | May | May | May | June | June | June | June | June | June | June | June | July | July | July | | Arizona | D 4 | D 2 | R 1 | D 2 | D 2 | D 2 | D 7 | D 2 | D 2 | D 6 | D 9 | R 2 | D 5 | D 2 | D 6 | D 5 | D 5 | | Florida | R 1 | R 6 | R 3 | D 3 | D 1 | R 10 | D 5 | D 3 | R 1 | D 2 | D 5 | R 4 | R 3 | R 12 | D 7 | D 1 | D 3 | | Georgia | R 7 | R 8 | R 11 | R 4 | R 11 | R 15 | R 1 | R 13 | R 13 | R 8 | R 2 | R 3 | R 14 | R 13 | R 1 | R 7 | R 10 | | Iowa | R 11 | R 11 | R 12 | R 8 | R 6 | R 11 | R 3 | R 11 | D 8 | R 12 | R 3 | R 7 | R 8 | R 6 | R 3 | R 10 | R 6 | | Maine | D 15 | D 15 | D 14 | D 7 | D 13 | D 9 | D 15 | D 15 | D 12 | D 15 | D 8 | D 11 | D 12 | D 11 | D 15 | D 14 | D 11 | | Maine CD-02 | R 12 | R 13 | R 6 | D 6 | D 3 | R 1 | R 8 | R 5 | D 3 | R 7 | D 7 | D 8 | D 6 | D 7 | R 5 | R 2 | D 7 | | Michigan | D 8 | D 7 | D 4 | D 12 | D 8 | D 5 | D 12 | D 6 | D 7 | D 9 | D 14 | D 13 | D 7 | D 9 | D 12 | D 6 | D 14 | | Minnesota | D 14 | D 12 | D 7 | D 15 | D 12 | D 7 | D 14 | D 9 | D 14 | D 11 | D 15 | D 6 | D 13 | D 14 | D 14 | D 12 | D 15 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D 5 | D 5 | D 5 | R 1 | R 7 | R 13 | D 10 | D 4 | R 4 | R 3 | R 6 | D 1 | R 10 | R 8 | D 11 | D 8 | R 9 | | New Hampshire | D 10 | D 10 | D 10 | D 10 | D 15 | D 8 | D 13 | D 12 | D 15 | D 10 | D 10 | D 14 | D 1 | D 10 | D 13 | D 13 | D 13 | | North Carolina | R 2 | R 4 | R 9 | D 5 | R 4 | R 4 | D 4 | R 8 | D 5 | D 1 | D 4 | D 5 | R 9 | D 1 | D 4 | R 3 | D 2 | | Ohio | R 9 | R 9 | R 8 | R 11 | R 10 | R 12 | R 2 | R 10 | R 6 | R 14 | D 1 | R 10 | R 2 | R 4 | R 2 | R 11 | R 1 | | Pennsylvania | D 6 | D 3 | D 13 | D 14 | D 9 | D 6 | D 11 | D 7 | D 11 | D 4 | D 12 | D 12 | D 4 | D 5 | D 10 | D 9 | D 12 | | Texas | R 13 | R 14 | R 15 | R 13 | R 14 | R 14 | R 6 | R 14 | R 10 | R 13 | R 13 | R 9 | R 15 | R 15 | R 8 | R 15 | R 4 | | Wisconsin | D 3 | R 1 | D 2 | D 9 | R 5 | R 3 | D 9 | D 1 | D 9 | D 5 | D 11 | D 15 | D 6 | D 3 | D 9 | D 4 | D 8 | ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/8 "2020-08-26T11:38:06Z")
Here it is: AZ D 4 FL R 2 GA R 6 IA R 13 ME D 14 ME-02 D 1 MI D 10 MN D 5 NE-02 D 9 NH D 12 NC R 7 OH R 11 PA D 8 TX R 15 WI D 3 ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2020, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/9 "2020-08-31T02:58:36Z")
Arizona: R 2 Florida: R 1 Georgia: R 10 Iowa: R 11 Maine: D 14 Maine CD-02: D 13 Michigan: D 12 Minnesota: D 3 Nebraska CD-02: R 8 New Hampshire: D 15 North Carolina: R 4 Ohio: R 9 Pennsylvania: D 5 Texas: R 7 Wisconsin: D 6 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2020, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/10 "2020-08-31T17:10:03Z")
Thanks for the entry **Kolak\_of\_Twilo**. About twelve hours remains to get one in. Here’s my final update… | Race | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 2 | | Florida | D | 1 | | Georgia | R | 11 | | Iowa | R | 13 | | Maine | D | 15 | | Maine CD-02 | R | 12 | | Michigan | D | 8 | | Minnesota | D | 7 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D | 4 | | New Hampshire | D | 10 | | North Carolina | R | 5 | | Ohio | R | 9 | | Pennsylvania | D | 6 | | Texas | R | 14 | | Wisconsin | D | 3 | ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2020, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/11 "2020-08-31T20:47:03Z")
Excellent 538 article on Minnesota’s past, present, and future as a swing state. > **[Why Minnesota Could Be The Next Midwestern State To Go Red](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/)** > > This is the third in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states. In the fabled “blue wall” — the collection of… ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2020, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907/12 "2020-11-13T19:54:38Z")
Results of August contest. | Name | Month | Score | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | JKellyMap | August | 113 | 13 | 2 | | Lance\_Turbo | August | 108 | 13 | 2 | | eschrodinger | August | 101 | 13 | 2 | | iiandyiiii | August | 97 | 11 | 4 | | BobLibDem | August | 93 | 9 | 6 | | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | August | 87 | 11 | 4 |