# Australian Federal election 2nd July 2016 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 30, 2016, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832 "2016-06-30T23:11:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Melisande](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dec6dc/32.png) [@Melisande](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melisande)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2016, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/61 "2016-07-04T13:47:21Z")
> [@Blake](#): > > 😃 > They’ll get my vote. > > Why would this happen? If I am currently running as the “No Kids On My Lawn” party, how would I benefit from not running? Sure, I could make an agreement with the “No Loud Parties After 8PM” party that they would take up the cudgel for me, but that wouldn’t be legally binding and, more important, wouldn’t achieve any more than if we both just reached the agreement and both ran and traded preferences. > > These parties have such a small primary vote that it’s not like splitting the vote has a significant impact on their chance of success. They only get in on preferences anyway. The “real” minor parties like Family First or or One Nation, where a split vote might conceivably make a difference, would never benefit from merging with each other anyway, since their voting success lies in being both recognisable and distinct. > > The major parties have “shaken out” because they know that running, for example, a DLP and ALP candidate or a Lib and a Nat in the same seat has a measurable impact on their chance of winning. Where two parties are competing, either natural selection has eliminated one or they have agreed to cooperate. There doesn’t seem to be any mechanism that will produce the same result with the minor parties since they are unlikely to get elected except through preferences anyway. Parties don’t have preferences any more. Micro parties combine to become minor parties, and maybe get some votes. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2016, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/62 "2016-07-04T22:28:10Z")
It is at times line this, when executive government has been in “caretaker” mode for 8 weeks (and arguably before that) and with the prospect of a further 2 weeks for the count to be finalised and possible another fortnight or more haggling over who gets how many seats on the Treasury benches, that you appreciate the foresight of Australia’s Founding Fathers in using the Westminister conventions and not following the USA model. > [@](#): > > **The Commonwealth guidelines as to when the caretaker conventions begin** : > … at the time the House of Representatives is dissolved. > … until the election result is clear or, if there is a change of government, until the new government is appointed. We can continue in this mode within well established conventions essentially without limit, maintaining the capability to get on with the nuts & bolts of government while being able to respond to any “crisis”, with due consultation without without any threat of shutdown nor the necessity for High Court intervention (as was the case with SCOTUS) to terminate due electoral process. ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2016, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/63 "2016-07-05T00:27:40Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > In terms of chosing the smaller evil, I’ll take the random chancers and micro-parties over Hansen, **Hinch** , Lambie and Palmer. …speaking of people running for Federal Parliament when what they’re really on about are state issues. The Spouse and I were thrashing out the minutae of the Senate voting system last night, and actually his analysis convinced me that some of the microparties might be better off (in game theory terms) staying as microparties rather than banding together with another party. Say, for instance, the Animal Justice Party got the Greens to put veganism on the agenda, and decided to shut up shop and join them, in return for number 2 spot on the ticket. Right now in NSW the Greens have .96% of a quota on first preferences, which means (I think?) that if everybody or nearly everybody who voted for them did the standard thing and put 1 for their first person, 2 for their second, then as soon as round one of redistributions happens, the second Green gets knocked out immediately. The AJP person basically only gets an advantage from being second on the Greens ticket (rather than where he is where the vagaries of the preference system might randomly push him over the line) if he can guarantee to bring more than .4%'s worth of a quota of supporters with him, enabling him to hang on until the flow of Greens preferences lifts his boat up above the microparties (and gives him as much of a chance as anyone of getting the final fairly-random spot) Basically, number 2 on a ticket (or more generally, number however-many-quotas-your-party-expects + 1) is an extraordinarily vulnerable position, even compared to microparty status. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2016, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/64 "2016-07-05T01:39:21Z")
I think that’s on the money The AJP candidate probably won’t get knocked out in the first round of redistributions . They get eliminated one at a time and there will be 151-12=139 rounds. The #2 spot is only worth a squirt of dingo droppings if the Greens can poll at least 1.4 quotas. If they were looking that strong they wouldn’t offer a winnable spot to another party. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2016, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/65 "2016-07-05T02:22:36Z")
Couple of points: If the Animal Justice Party get the Greens to put veganism on the agenda, then it doesn’t matter if the ex-AJP bloke who is now no. 2 on the Green ticket gets elected. Even if only one Green is elected, there’s still a Senator with a platform including a commitment to the promotion of veganism, which is a win if you’re a Animal Justice activist. Secondly, under the new rules it doesn’t matter how many rounds of counting there are; the AJP vote will not grow in each round unless some voters decided to preference the AJP either above or below the line, and they won’t get elected unless _enough_ voters do that to allow them eventually to accumulate a quota of votes. Since the voter no longer have to fill out all the boxes, regardless of whether you vote above or below the line, this means that the AJP as a separate party is toast, electorally, unless they campaign hard enough to persuade people to put a number in an AJP box, rather than leaving it blank. This has to be a campaign that appeals directly to voters; you can’t do it by preference deals any more. Therefore, if you want to advance the cause of veganism, running a separate ticket as the AJP is unlikely to be your optimal strategy. You’re better off trying to influence the Green party (or, theoretically, another party) to adopt a pro-vegan platform, and to commit what support and/or organisation you have to supporting the Green campaign. This remains true unless you think your single issue is so popular, or your candidate has such personal brand recognition, that you can attract enough lower preferences from individual voters eventually to accumulate a quote of votes. And for the great majority of the micro-parties that is not the case. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2016, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/66 "2016-07-05T06:49:54Z")
I think there could still be value in running as your own party at least once, so that you have something to sell that other party. If you want to convince the Green party to adopt a pro-vegan platform, being able to say that X voters considered it their first priority might help to convince them. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2016, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/67 "2016-07-05T07:50:30Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > I think there could still be value in running as your own party at least once, so that you have something to sell that other party. If you want to convince the Green party to adopt a pro-vegan platform, being able to say that X voters considered it their first priority might help to convince them. Possibly, although the success of this strategy depends on running as a single-issue party/candidate _and doing surprisingly well_. Otherwise all you acheive is to confirm existing impressions as to how important voters find this issue or, worse, demonstrate that they find it less important than is already supposed. ---
**Author:** ![Cazzle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cazzle/32/75_2.png) [@Cazzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cazzle)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2016, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/68 "2016-07-05T13:08:15Z")
Oh God. My mum piped up today to say she voted for Hanson and Hinch, which lead to discovering she’s a climate change sceptic. I think our votes are cancelling each other out. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2016, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/69 "2016-07-05T22:36:41Z")
'It is a far, far better thing that you have done … ---
**Author:** ![Martini\_Enfield](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/martini_enfield/32/11123_2.png) [@Martini\_Enfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martini_Enfield)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2016, 9:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/70 "2016-07-06T09:08:33Z")
I am astounded at Pauline Hanson getting voted back in, I really am. I know everybody’s racist uncle seems to live in Queensland, but even by Queensland’s standards I am surprised at this result. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2016, 9:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/71 "2016-07-06T09:26:32Z")
I am incapable of taking Pauline Hanson seriously. The tone of her voice makes everything she says sound like she’s whining. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2016, 9:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/72 "2016-07-06T09:47:08Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > I am incapable of taking Pauline Hanson seriously. The tone of her voice makes everything she says sound like she’s whining. Everything she says is whining, pretty much. But it’s serious whining. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2016, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/73 "2016-07-10T06:29:31Z")
Well after 8 days that completes the formalities; LAB leader Bill Shorten has conceded defeat LIB leader Malcolm Turnbull has claimed victory Current HoR count is: LIB/NAT 74 predicted 76 LAB 66 predicted 69 Other 5 ---
**Author:** ![Martini\_Enfield](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/martini_enfield/32/11123_2.png) [@Martini\_Enfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martini_Enfield)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2016, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/74 "2016-07-10T06:32:39Z")
So business as usual, then? That means it’s time for Brandy & Cigars in the study, I believe. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2016, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/75 "2016-07-10T12:02:30Z")
Am unsure as to what you believe, but business as usual it won’t be. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2016, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/76 "2016-07-10T20:53:49Z")
> [@Martini\_Enfield](#): > > I am astounded at Pauline Hanson getting voted back in, I really am. I know everybody’s racist uncle seems to live in Queensland, but even by Queensland’s standards I am surprised at this result. Lower percentage to get in the Senate in a double dissolution. That’s one reason I think Turnbull’s plan to use a DD to clear out the cross benches was not so clever. > [@penultima\_thule](#): > > Well after 8 days that completes the formalities; > LAB leader Bill Shorten has conceded defeat > LIB leader Malcolm Turnbull has claimed victory > > Current HoR count is: > LIB/NAT 74 predicted 76 > LAB 66 predicted 69 > Other 5 Well. Amazingly, the great stupid plan has sort of half worked. I mean, surely the Senate won’t come close to a majority, but Turnbull may have pulled out a bare squeaker of a majority! Oh, who am I kidding? That’s half. That’s not actually a majority. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2016, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/77 "2016-07-10T22:35:29Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > Lower percentage to get in the Senate in a double dissolution. That’s one reason I think Turnbull’s plan to use a DD to clear out the cross benches was not so clever. > . I’ll go out on a limb and say the LIB strategists were fully aware that the quota to win a Senate spot (=1/13th) was lower than at a usual half-Senate election (=1/7th). :smack: While the Senate vote is still to be counted (and the final preference allocation may not be til August) the strategy to reduce the impact of microparties would seem to have worked. And will be more so at future half-Senate elections which previously were the engine driving the micro’s representation. We aren’t going to see the last spot in every state won by somebody whose primary vote was 0.5% or less. Yes, there will be more crossbench Senators than since Federation but Hinch polled 6% in Vic, Hanson polled 9% in Qld, Xenephon got 22% in SA. While it’s a profound worry that that there were that many people who’d give their primary Senate vote to a Hinch and/or Hanson, that’s in the same region as the Greens. ---
**Author:** ![Martini\_Enfield](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/martini_enfield/32/11123_2.png) [@Martini\_Enfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martini_Enfield)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2016, 9:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/78 "2016-07-12T09:54:53Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > Am unsure as to what you believe, but business as usual it won’t be. I mean I don’t think it actually matters who’s in charge since there’s not a great deal of practical difference between the two main parties anymore, IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2016, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832/79 "2016-07-18T11:58:09Z")
The last electorate of the 2016 Federal election to be declared is Herbert, based around Townsville in northern Queensland. It has been won for Labor by 8 votes. An automatic recount (occurs with margins less than 100) will now take place. As it stands: LIB 76 LAB 69 IND 5 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/australian-federal-election-2nd-july-2016/758832.md?page=3)