…something they were able to do because they are a government insurer and as such it is impossible for them to become insolvent.
What’s all this utter nonsense about age being the only rating factor? I gave you the seven universally used rating factors along with a number of other often or occasionally used ones. For the record:
[quote]
by me in my very first post in this thread:
[li]cover (i.e. third party, comprehensive)[/li][li]type of use (i.e. business/social only/commuting)[/li][li]driver’s age[/li][li]make and model of car (or groups that contain similar risk)[/li][li]age of vehicle (new cars tend to do more miles and are repaired more often)[/li][li]past experience (i.e. a no claims discount or bonus malus)[/li][li]location (as a proxy for where car may be driven)[/li]plus:
[li]other drivers (if car is driven by spouse)[/li][li]further data on driver (driving convictions, driving experience)[/li][li]further data on car (engine modifications)[/li][li]voluntary excess (willingness to have a higher excess may indicate a more cautious driver)[/li][li]sex (women tend to do less miles than men)[/li][li]low milage (collectors who use cars in limited fashion)[/li][li]occupation (some professions attract careful risk-averse people)[/li][/quote]
It is via all of these rating factors that we attempt to identify the risk factor.
Experience is taken care of via a no claims discount (NCD). You want “fair”? Try this on for size: the data actually suggests that you shouldn’t get a full NCD until you have ten consecutive years of claim free driving and that even after that time NCD shouldn’t be more than about 40% (this statistic is straight from the UK Institute of Actuaries core reading for their General Insurance exam). And yet you routinely are offered 60% or even 70% NCD after just 5 years. This means that personal driver experience is actually currently being used even more than is theoretically justified!.
Frequency of claim varies a lot by age, but is basically
about 30% in the age group we’re talking about. In other words about 1 claim every three years for the average driver. How do you expect an insurance company to know what you personally are like as a driver based on such little data? They do their best with an NCD and give very attractive terms for this.
But age also helps to define the risk - and it does so very successfully.
Here’s another point for you collecting them: if you took away an insurer’s right to age discriminate, insurance premiums would be forced up across the board even on top of that due to the “averaging” of rates. Why? Because you would be enormously increasing the vulnerability of the insurer to insolvency by increasing the volatility of profit on each contract. This is something I’ve already mentioned. In order to safeguard their solvency, insurers would have to increase the volatility part of the insurance premium. Your insurance would therefore go up even more.
This whole argument is ridiculous. On one side we have a trillion dollar industry that spends millions researching the best ways to define risks. Extremely qualified people, experts in statistics, analyse millions of points of data in search of the best way of predicting the claims for any given individual. This process is entirely scientific - there is no room for racism, sexism or any other ism. Twenty years of increasing computer power has lead at this point in time to identifying seven major rating factors, of which age is one. The search continues.
On the other side we have a bunch of Jo Publics who don’t understand statistics, have never studied insurance and give the matter a little thought once a year when they wonder why their premium is higher than Miss Daisy’s driver. They claim that charging more to younger people is “unfair” but when asked why have no answer other than the following:[list=1][li]it just is[/li][li]we don’t discriminate by race, so why should we by age (aargh!)[/li][li]age isn’t the only indicator of risk[/li][li]some people are better drivers than others - why should they face higher premiums just because the bad drivers claim more?[/list=1]To which I say (again)[list=1]No it isn’t - unfair is asking older people to subsidise younger drivers.[/li][li]race cannot be used as a rating factor. And anyway, there is no evidence that it would be a decent rating factor even if we could use it. Which we can’t.[/li][li]No shit, Sherlock. But it is one bloody good one. Any more you got, we’ll try 'em. Along with the myriad-and-one rating factors we already use on top of age.[/li][li]This is my whole point! Insurers attempt to identify each person’s risk as best they can - they don’t know you from Adam and so they have to do the best they can with the tools at their disposal. Age is one such tool. What, exacly, do you want them to do? Ask you how good you are? They already offer you a hefty NCD if you show that you can keep your nose clean.[/list=1][/li]
Now it’s suggested that we use “driving experience” as a rating factor. Actually not a bad idea from a layman, that. But do you think that we never thought of it? Here are the problems with it:
[li]Driving experience really means the number of miles you’ve driven and under what conditions, it doesn’t mean the number of years[/li][li]Years driving experience simply isn’t anywhere near as good as age at predicting risk. This is because age correlates with more than just experience. I’ve alerady said this twice, but it bears repeating: younger drivers are also more likely to drive at night, more likely to drive in dense urban traffic and more likely to drive fast. These are all risk factors that mere driving experience doesn’t predict.[/li][li]Difference in “years driving experience” actually becomes insignificant after about 5 years. As such, we can identify lesser risk from 0 to 5 years but after that it’s almost irrelevant. Most insurers do actually put a premium on for less than 5 year’s experience.[/li][li]Years driving experience is quite closely correlated with age anyway. As such it isn’t an independent rating factor. I don’t want to get bogged down into a statistical lecture about independence here, but basically it’s not a good idea to use very related factors. Since age is far superior, years experience gets tossed into the dustbin.[/li]
Next?
pan