# Average lifespans going up despite obesity/smoking **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 29, 2015, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964 "2015-09-29T17:03:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![smokey78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/82dd89/32.png) [@smokey78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smokey78)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/1 "2015-09-29T17:03:25Z")
When I visited a London a few years ago, something I really noticed bugged the heck out of me…going out in public, nearly everyone was lighting cigarettes. Our family friends sister who lived there took us out touring and I told her about here in America, we got anti-smoking campaigns up the wazoo, and she said she doesn’t noticed those PSA’s in U.K. So I looked up average lifespans right now for U.K. vs United States and they are beating us by 4 years. The obesity rate has gone up everywhere and we still doubled our lifespan from a century ago, If anyone has ever seen Clive Owen’s show , The Knick, that takes place at turn of century his character says , “we are making great strides, now people are living up to 47 years!” So all the medical technology and medicine has surpassed the dangers of obesity and smoking? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/2 "2015-09-29T17:11:11Z")
Only if you have _access_ to that technology. That’s why the UK is beating the US in the lifespan category by 4 years. The UK has the NHS which, for all its flaws, does allow even the most disadvantaged to access basic medical care, and some advanced care. That is not the case in the US where millions of people fall through the cracks. ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/3 "2015-09-29T17:41:25Z")
The old people in the UK today were kids during and after WW2. All the things that are bad for you like fats and sugars were rationed. All the things that are good for you like playing outside were pretty much all there was to do. Even though we may have slipped into bad habits since, that legacy has given us a longer life expectancy. ---
**Author:** ![ElderSign](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eldersign/32/8263_2.png) [@ElderSign](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElderSign)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/4 "2015-09-29T17:45:19Z")
Infant mortality rate skews the average lifespan data that is often mentioned by people. ---
**Author:** ![purplehearingaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7bcc69/32.png) [@purplehearingaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/purplehearingaid)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/5 "2015-09-29T17:54:22Z")
and the quality of healthcare is getting worst in USA especially if you’re poor . I saw this happen when I was health aide in the 90’s , my clients got less time with their health aides and their insurance when cutting back on paying for their meds . Clients had to decide if they should buy their meds or more food. There is I had clients that wanted to be dead they hated being trapped in a useless body . This is good news only if you’re very rich and have great insurance . ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/6 "2015-09-29T18:27:29Z")
> [@smokey78](#): > > So all the medical technology and medicine has surpassed the dangers of obesity and smoking? Well also our understanding of what increases lifespan has changed. [There have been some recent studies that indicate that people slightly overweight actually live longer:](http://healthland.time.com/2013/01/02/being-overweight-is-linked-to-lower-risk-of-mortality/) > [@](#): > > The longest lived among us aren’t necessarily those who are of normal weight, says a new study. > > According to new research this week in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), researchers say that being overweight may lead to a longer life. It’s still being studied, and we still don’t understand everything about health and improving lifespan, and it’s definitely not justification to go out and eat tons of Taco Bell because it will make you live longer. But also just because you see someone who’s fat, doesn’t mean that they’ll die sooner than the skinny person next to them. Also, [smoking rates have gone down a lot in the UK](http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/oct/07/smoking-falls-lowest-level-uk-recording-started-1940s). They might not have the same heavy-handed PSA’s like we do in America, but I’m pretty sure they’ve had health campaigns to try to get people to decrease the amount of smoking. [And smoking doesn’t automatically mean an earlier death](http://www.abc.net.au/health/talkinghealth/factbuster/stories/2011/10/25/3347303.htm): > [@](#): > > Medical experts like Currow are convinced that the only safe strategy is not to smoke at all. > > The good news is that as soon as we stop smoking our body starts recovering. > > Within 12 hours of our final cigarette, blood carbon monoxide levels are much lower, and a year later our risk of coronary heart disease will be half what it was as a smoker. > > If we quit before the age of 35, our life expectancy will be much the same as someone who has never smoked. This is not saying that it’s a good idea to start smoking. Part of the problem with smoking is that it’s hard to do it in moderation, and it’s very hard to quit. But for those that do quit, it doesn’t mean that years will have been taken off their lives. ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/7 "2015-09-29T20:39:17Z")
Point of clarification: Life span does not change. Life expectancy is changing. > **[Life Expectancy Versus Life Span](https://www.news-medical.net/health/Life-Expectancy-Versus-Life-Span.aspx)** > > The terms “life expectancy” and “lifespan” describe two distinctly different things, although people tend to use these terms interchangeably. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Skinley\_Von\_Clipper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@Baron\_Skinley\_Von\_Clipper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Skinley_Von_Clipper)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/8 "2015-09-29T21:07:17Z")
Increase your life expectancy by expecting to live longer. ---
**Author:** ![Surreal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eada6e/32.png) [@Surreal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Surreal)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/9 "2015-09-29T21:36:18Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Only if you have _access_ to that technology. That’s why the UK is beating the US in the lifespan category by 4 years. The UK has the NHS which, for all its flaws, does allow even the most disadvantaged to access basic medical care, and some advanced care. That is not the case in the US where millions of people fall through the cracks. Life expectancy at age 65 for people in the UK is only about 0.5 years greater than life expectancy at age 65 for people in the US: > **[The American exception](https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2013/01/11/the-american-exception)** > > Prospering, but not living as long as others ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/10 "2015-09-29T21:55:05Z")
There’s more to risk factors than obesity and smoking. Demographics are not identical in both places either. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/11 "2015-09-29T22:00:23Z")
> [@smokey78](#): > > Our family friends sister who lived there took us out touring and I told her about here in America, we got anti-smoking campaigns up the wazoo, and she said she doesn’t noticed those PSA’s in U.K. She may not notice them, but [they are certainly there](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v48P45I1B_0). Britons [do smoke about 25% less than Americans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cigarette_consumption_per_capita), but that is largely because of more effective anti-smoking measures like [punitive taxation](http://www.the-tma.org.uk/policy-legislation/taxation/) (it’s a pro-tobacco lobbying group but the numbers are broadly accurate). > [@](#): > > On a typical pack of 20 premium cigarettes the total tax burden of £6.17 accounts for 77% of the recommended retail price (RRP) of £7.98. By comparison, federal plus state and local taxes in the US generally range from $2 to $5, which is much less in both nominal and purchasing power terms. ---
**Author:** ![doubleminus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/5daacb/32.png) [@doubleminus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doubleminus)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/12 "2015-09-29T22:31:14Z")
The US have an utterly dysfunctional health system, not only for poor people but also for the middle and upper-middle class. I often hear horror stories of mistreatment from friends and acquaintances. It is true that if you _know_ what treatment you need, you can get the most advanced care (for a price). There are many people in the US getting worse than 3rd world care. In fact the US is in the 34 place for life expectancy, the same as Columbia, Costa Rica and Cuba (but below Lebanon) ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2015, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/13 "2015-09-29T23:15:19Z")
Smoking rates in the US are about half what they were 50 years ago. They were something like 40-50% of adults back then, and are now closer to 20-25% of adults. Aldo CVD and strokes have gone down while obesity has gone up. About 60% of the deaths from obesity are attributed to vascular disease. Seems like technology is outpacing obesity. [This](https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/files/2014/05/Age-standardised-mortality-rates-in-NZ-graph.jpg)is a new Zealand chart, but rates of vascular disease peaked in 1970 and have been declining since, obesity started exploding around 1980. In the US, life expectancy at 65 is not much different than other OECD nations at about 17-20 years, and is pretty much identical to the UK. Like others have said, it is more deaths among younger people that skew the US’s life expectancy. [http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/8109111ec004.pdf?expires=1443569327&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=0A027B7697D337CAB0F94F01F2CFF1D5](http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/8109111ec004.pdf?expires=1443569327&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=0A027B7697D337CAB0F94F01F2CFF1D5) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/14 "2015-09-30T00:32:33Z")
So summarizing - Smoking rates have decreased _dramatically_ in the U.K. From over half of all of those over 16 in the 40s to the lowest ever recorded there, under 20%. hat is a bigger drop than in the U.S. In parallel with that drop deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) have [dropped dramatically](https://www.bhf.org.uk/~/media/files/publications/research/2012_chd_statistics_compendium.pdf) in all age groups. (See pages 24 and following.) Smoking related CHD killed many from early middle-aged on. No surprise that lung cancer rates have also dropped in the U.K. following decreases in smoking incidence. The impact of the dramatic drop in smoking in the U.K. on life expectancy figures is hard to overstate. Don’t have an article for the U.K. but [in Finland](http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/162/8/764.full) an analysis shows that most of the decrease in CHD death rates was attributable to risk factor reductions and maybe 23% attributable to improved treatments. The dramatic increase in “obesity”, defined as BMI over 30 (a very different public health impact than the minimal increase in “overweight” , BMI 25 to 29.9), in the U.K. is really a recent item, only starting to significantly rise in the last 20 years. It is too early to judge what impact it will have on life expectancy. My WAG is that treatments for obesity related diseases (diabetes and such) will result in the obesity epidemic having minimal impact on life expectancy but significant impact on _healthy life span_ … i.e. obesity won’t kill people much earlier, thanks to improved medical care, but it will result in more spending more of their lives significantly impaired both physically and cognitively. Yes, American life expectancy figures are impacted by the fact that the United States has many more dying young as a result of motor vehicle accidents, [over 3 times as many](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate), and of murders … [4.7 times as many murders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate) than does the U.K. ---
**Author:** ![grude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47774/32.png) [@grude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grude)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/15 "2015-09-30T01:07:06Z")
> [@ElderSign](#): > > Infant mortality rate skews the average lifespan data that is often mentioned by people. This is an amazingly common misperception that even makes it into fiction according to the OP, no one in any time period would been amazed at someone living to 47. Or like when you see people say whoa people in Nigeria die in their thirties?! Infant mortality pulls down the average life expectancy, if you survived into childhood you always had a good change of living until you died of old age related diseases. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/16 "2015-09-30T15:03:21Z")
I just want to point that the correlations between slight overweight and longevity is just that, a correlation. In fact it could go the other way: that healthier people weigh a bit more. This is entirely plausible. My sickest friend weighs about 80 lb, maybe a bit less and her expected life span is low. She has no obvious disease like cancer; she is just always nauseated and can’t eat well. And she needs a valve replacement but the surgeon feels she is too fragile for it. Even the through the veins procedure. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/17 "2015-10-01T02:05:58Z")
Yes, “reverse causation” is a concern, despite efforts to control for it such as by dropping deaths that occur in the first several years of the study. It is also true that “overweight” is a very mixed bag, some of who are very fit with fairly low body fat and a good amount of muscle mass, and some of whom have little muscle mass and more fat mass, most of it in a paunch. BMI over 30 has fairly few who do not have excess body fat. ---
**Author:** ![iljitsch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/77aa72/32.png) [@iljitsch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iljitsch)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/18 "2015-10-01T09:09:00Z")
People who are of normal weight may be “skinny fat”, having little muscle mass but a large amount of fat. People of any weight / fatness may be fit or unfit. Also, subcutaneous fat (directly under the skin) isn’t really problematic until someone gets so heavy that their joints can’t take the stress anymore. Too much visceral fat (between the organs) on the other hand, is associated with all kinds of bad stuff. The bad thing is that excess energy intake is typically stored as visceral fat first, but the good thing is that it’s also the first to go when losing weight and then blood tests quickly head in the right direction even though a person may still have a lot of weight to lose. So someone with a BMI of 30 or maybe even 35 who is active and is losing weight (even if slowly) could be in much better health than someone with a BMI of 24 who is sedentary and gaining weight. And most of us tend to be gaining weight throughout our lives… ---
**Author:** ![upend](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b3f665/32.png) [@upend](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/upend)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/19 "2015-10-01T09:59:59Z")
Agree with the people above that we have a wider healthcare reach in the UK. For the 2 points that the OP mentions smoking figures are given on Wiki here; [Tobacco consumption by country - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cigarette_consumption_per_capita) US is 51st in world with 1028 cigarettes/capita/year UK is 73rd with 750 found some slightly old stats for Obesity on the BBC > **[BBC NEWS | Health | Obesity: in statistics](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7151813.stm)** > > Obesity is a problem almost everywhere in the world - with experts worried that people who are overweight are also more likely to suffer other health problems like heart disease. United States 32.2% United Kingdom 24.2% many more factors for the overall rise in life expectancy but that might give an clue why the UK has a higher expectancy than the US ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964/20 "2015-10-01T13:01:06Z")
smokey78, before you claim that something is going up, try to look up the statistics for it first. The fact that you notice something by casual observation doesn’t prove anything. Smoking has been going down in the U.S. and the U.K. since the 1970’s. Obesity has been going up somewhat in recent years, but obesity has less effect on life expectancy than you think. Many other causes of death have been going down slowly in both countries. Basically, in every first-world country life expectancy has been going up slowly for the past century and a half. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/average-lifespans-going-up-despite-obesity-smoking/732964.md?page=2)