# Axis Strategy Victory Scenario in WWII - Possible? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 13, 2015, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729 "2015-01-13T17:51:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/61 "2015-01-15T01:12:29Z")
> [@Wallaby](#): > > I have read that various Military Academies have studied Operation Sea Lion under various conditions - even when they posit that neither the RAF or the Royal Navy exist AT ALL, Germany could not have mounted a successful invasion. They just could not support large enough supply lines across the channel, even with no opposition. They had no way of getting large equipment like tanks or guns across. Even at best, they could probably land 5-10,000 men per day - on a beach, with bugger all supplies. > > All wargames scenarios ended the same way - a small group of German diehards holding out approximately one quarter of the way to London. About 3-4 weeks. Yea, this seems kind of obvious when you consider that it took the UK and US two years to build up the forces and infrastructure for an invasion going the other way, with naval and air dominance, with most of the German army at the time occupied on the other side of Europe fighting the Russians and the people in the territory being invaded sympathetic to the invaders. And progress in the Normandy campaign was still much slower then planned. It seems ridiculous to think the Germans would have a chance launching a similar invasion more or less on the fly, to hostile territory without control of the Channel and against an undivided British army. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/62 "2015-01-15T06:35:02Z")
Addressing the other major Axis power, Japan could have won if it had avoided bombing Pearl Harbor - or, if it did, then made sure to knock out the American carriers (wait for them to be in port) and all oil supplies - and avoided invading China. Instead, Japan should have let the Communists and Nationalists fight each other as long as possible, constantly propping up the weaker side, to keep China divided and weak. Japan overextended itself. It should have limited itself to Taiwan, the Philippines and some of Southeast Asia. Japan should also have put maximum effort towards developing a nuclear weapon. And built nonflammable houses. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/63 "2015-01-15T07:47:29Z")
> [@Wallaby](#): > > I have read that various Military Academies have studied Operation Sea Lion under various conditions - even when they posit that neither the RAF or the Royal Navy exist AT ALL, Germany could not have mounted a successful invasion. They just could not support large enough supply lines across the channel, even with no opposition. They had no way of getting large equipment like tanks or guns across. Even at best, they could probably land 5-10,000 men per day - on a beach, with bugger all supplies. > > All wargames scenarios ended the same way - a small group of German diehards holding out approximately one quarter of the way to London. About 3-4 weeks. My stock answer to this, when its posted somewhere. Sea Lion was a political operation, that had gone past its due date. Churchill ended up being the PM and not who the Germans figured would be PM. Sea Lion was the threat of an invasion, rather than an actual invasion, so that it would have been better to sue for peace and avoid a supposed repeat of WW1 and the casualties that GB took. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/64 "2015-01-15T16:46:17Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Addressing the other major Axis power, Japan could have won if it had avoided bombing Pearl Harbor - or, if it did, then made sure to knock out the American carriers (wait for them to be in port) and all oil supplies - and avoided invading China. There is no rational way Japan wins once it attacks Pearl Harbor–the US industrial output eventually crushes Japan no matter how many carriers are sunk. The only possible argument that could be made would be if Japan was able to shock-and-awe the US to the point of immediate capitulation. Once the US decided to fight it was over. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/65 "2015-01-15T18:48:50Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Addressing the other major Axis power, Japan could have won if it had avoided bombing Pearl Harbor - or, if it did, then made sure to knock out the American carriers (wait for them to be in port) and all oil supplies - and avoided invading China. Instead, Japan should have let the Communists and Nationalists fight each other as long as possible, constantly propping up the weaker side, to keep China divided and weak. > > Japan overextended itself. It should have limited itself to Taiwan, the Philippines and some of Southeast Asia. This may well have worked. We have run many wargames and altho much depends on how US politics reacts (certainly much lend lease aid, etc would come from the USA) it could well work. Also the Imperial Japanese attacking the USSR, even as a feint may cause Stalin to not recall those fresh divisions (with unpurged veteran officers) for the relief of Moscow, etc. This might have allowed the Nazis to get further. That may have caused Stalin to collapse or the government to collapse. Stalin was on the verge of collapse several times. One historian posited that having the Nazis drive into the Middle East instead of Greece & Yugoslavia may have worked. Yes, there are tactics that would have caused the Nazis to not have have \* lost\* the Battle of Britain. But as long as Churchill was PM, they never could have _won_ the Battle of Britain. The Luftwaffe could have gotten air superiority, yes, maybe. An invasion would have been a monumental failure. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/66 "2015-01-16T00:54:42Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Addressing the other major Axis power, Japan could have won if it had avoided bombing Pearl Harbor - or, if it did, then made sure to knock out the American carriers (wait for them to be in port) and all oil supplies - and avoided invading China. Invading China came _first_, triggering the US sanctions that let the militaristic factions win power and commit Japan to war. If they don’t invade China in the first place there is no Pacific War at all, no reason for one. > [@](#): > > Japan overextended itself. It should have limited itself to Taiwan, the Philippines and some of Southeast Asia. You don’t think invading the Philippines puts Japan at war with the US anyway? And, that perimeter does not get them what they went to war to get - rubber (Malaya) and oil (Indonesia). > [@](#): > > Japan should also have put maximum effort towards developing a nuclear weapon. And built nonflammable houses. Not sure which of those is the less feasible. Where do they get the uranium from? If the Germans couldn’t do it in 5 years the Japanese certainly couldn’t do it in 4. Out of what material do they rebuild, say, 20 million houses, and where do they get it? And most importantly: what historical allocation of resources do they do without in order to devote effort to those things? ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/67 "2015-01-16T04:11:11Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Once Hitler lost the Battle of Britain, it was only a matter of time. Britain would have developed the atomic bomb first and that would have been that. So, to win, Hitler had to win the Battle of Britain. Then he would have had to invade and conquer the whole UK well before Pearl Harbour - in enough time to put diplomatic pressure on America to ease up on Japan and thus to obviate the need for the attack on Pearl Harbour. Britain (alone) would have never developed the atomic bomb. They didnt have the money, the resources or the scientists. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/68 "2015-01-16T22:24:01Z")
I am reading this thread a whole different way. Most people are assuming the central question is how could the Axis have “won”, i.e. militarily defeated the Allies. To me, the Axis “winning” means “surviving as viable political entities”. The answer is completely dependent on the time at which both Germany and Japan began began making better choices. Many people would say that time passed once Germany launched the invasion of the Soviet Union. I would tend to agree with this, with one proviso. There are claims (I don’t know whether they’ve been authoritatively confirmed or debunked) that The Soviets tried to do a peace treaty afterwords – specifically to give up the Ukraine in exchange for cessation of hostilities. Supposedly, when the offer came, Hitler bushed it aside, thinking he would be taking Moscow in another few weeks anyway. If the stories are true, Hitler’s biggest mistake was not taking the offer. As for Japan, it might have got the oil it needed by attacking British and Dutch forces in the West Pacific and leaving the US alone. I think that after Pearl Harbor, they were doomed. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/69 "2015-01-16T23:16:08Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Britain (alone) would have never developed the atomic bomb. They didnt have the money, the resources or the scientists. We certainly had the scientists and the physical resources, and while America threw the kitchen sink at the task, Britons tend to do their best work in sheds. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/70 "2015-01-16T23:18:40Z")
Did the British have their own uranium and plutonium? I’m sure they could have handled everything else. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/71 "2015-01-16T23:33:48Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > We certainly had the scientists and the physical resources, and while America threw the kitchen sink at the task, Britons tend to do their best work in sheds. I disagree. It would have taken decades for purely British scientists to develop the bomb, if at all. The British didnt have the cash to devote to the project, didnt have testing facilities, and it took the British until 1952 to develop an independent bomb even with all the info discovered during the Manhattan Project. And, of course, during the war, there would have been no place for the British to test a bomb. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/72 "2015-01-16T23:45:02Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > And, of course, during the war, there would have been no place for the British to test a bomb. There’s several completely tasteless jokes that can be made here.😛 ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/73 "2015-01-16T23:50:46Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > I disagree. It would have taken decades for purely British scientists to develop the bomb, if at all. The British didnt have the cash to devote to the project, didnt have testing facilities, and it took the British until 1952 to develop an independent bomb even with all the info discovered during the Manhattan Project. Things are prioritised differently in peace-time, and we had the disastrous post-war Labour government to boot. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/74 "2015-01-17T00:26:32Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > … > > And, of course, during the war, there would have been no place for the British to test a bomb. Paris? ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/75 "2015-01-17T08:50:07Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > And, of course, during the war, there would have been no place for the British to test a bomb. The one thing that Britain was not short of was open territory in far flung places. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/76 "2015-01-17T12:15:35Z")
I’ve always thought the notion that Allied victory was inevitable to be far too simplistic. (Let’s ignore the especially facile assumption that U.S. would surely have developed atomic weapons first and therewith won the war.) First, Hitler’s decision to invade Russia was a severe mistake. He underestimated the strength of Stalin’s military. Avoiding that mistake would have had a huge effect. Second, the Allies enjoyed great luck. The Battle of Midway was a very close thing. If _either_ their codes were secure _or_ they had better reconaissance during the Battle, Japan would have won that Battle and set back the American cause hugely. Decryption of Enigma codes was hugely important to Britain, and hardly a sure thing. Without it, German U-boats would have continued to destroy Allied shipping, Rommel’s Afrika Corps would have been properly supplied, etc. Even the success of the Normandy landings was not a sure thing. > [@chargerrich](#): > > I was always under the impression that due to resource availability (men, oil, arms, GNP) that the Axis had something close to zero percent in terms of probable outright victory (i.e. Allies surrendering not negotiated peace) regardless of any tactical or strategic factors outside of a Russian/German alliance or the US never entering the war. Germany had the resources of Scandinavia, and most of Europe available. They could have sought resources in Southwest Asia by allying either with Russia or Turkey. > [@Quartz](#): > > Once Hitler lost the Battle of Britain, it was only a matter of time. [Documentaries like this one](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdIhVpuwjto) make the claim that Hitler was winning the Battle of Britain until he switched from targeting RAF bases to targeting London. This he did, supposedly, in anger after Churchill bombed Berlin. > [@YogSosoth](#): > > Was there anyone in the world not already sided with one of the Axis or Allies that could have come into the war and made a difference and helped the Axis win? Turkey (to project power toward the Middle East) and Spain (to close the Straits of Gibraltar) were important neutrals Hitler tried unsuccessfully to woo. > [@Stringbean](#): > > Hitler could have had Britain. He had 150,000 British troops cornered on the western coast of France … More than 300,000 troops escaped from Dunkirk, one of the most amazing stories of the War. Had a substantial number of these been taken prisoner, Britain would have been demoralised. It’s argued that the combination of U.S., Russia, and the British Empire was too strong not to win. Perhaps, but with better decisions (or luck) Hitler could have avoided or delayed war with Russia, and led Britain to sue for peace. How could even an alliance of the U.S. and U.S.S.R. have defeated the Axis if Britain were neutral? ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/77 "2015-01-17T14:13:29Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Second, the Allies enjoyed great luck. The Battle of Midway was a very close thing. If _either_ their codes were secure I don’t consider this ‘luck’. A lot of effort was made to crack those codes. If the US had any luck, they made it themselves. Japanese doctrinal arrogance was a lot of the US’s ‘luck’. > [@](#): > > _or_ they had better reconaissance during the Battle, Japan would have won that Battle and set back the American cause hugely. Good reconnaissance is not a fixture of ‘luck’ and knowing the Americans were there wouldn’t have ensured Japanese victory. In fact, even had they completely sunk the US fleet they weren’t capturing Midway. Not with what they brought. The Japanese fleet had more than their share of ‘luck’ in that battle as well. There were points where they could have lost even more than they lost or lost it earlier. Furthermore, a total Japanese victory at Midway would have just delayed the inevitable. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/78 "2015-01-17T14:35:28Z")
If Germany had treated the local population of USSR less harshly they could perhaps had won over substantial numbers. At the greatest extend Germany had control over 80% of the USSA population. Also Stalin did sue for peace with Germany in 1941 and was willing to part with Ukraine. If Germany had accepted at that time things might have looked a lot different. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/79 "2015-01-17T19:19:23Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > First, Hitler’s decision to invade Russia was a severe mistake. He underestimated the strength of Stalin’s military. Avoiding that mistake would have had a huge effect. > > Second, the Allies enjoyed great luck. The Battle of Midway was a very close thing. If _either_ their codes were secure _or_ they had better reconaissance during the Battle, Japan would have won that Battle and set back the American cause hugely. All it would have done is ensured that the 4 survivors of Kido Butai in question would have been present to be sunk for real during the Battle of the Philippine Sea 2 years later, after all of those Essex class CVs come off the slips. Attrition of their flight groups would still have proceeded apace in the interval, greatly reducing their effectiveness. Maybe the ending of the war gets delayed by 6 months or so. [I was perusing the chapter in [Shattered Sword](http://www.amazon.com/Shattered-Sword-Untold-Battle-Midway/dp/1574889249/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1421521919&sr=1-1&keywords=Shattered+Sword) which discussed just this topic the other day.] > [@](#): > > Decryption of Enigma codes was hugely important to Britain, and hardly a sure thing. Without it, German U-boats would have continued to destroy Allied shipping, Rommel’s Afrika Corps would have been properly supplied, etc. The Kriegsmarine would still have to deal with airborne radar & the closing of the Atlantic Gap + numerous escort carriers, as well as improved AS tactics by the surface escorts. Theirs was an obsolete technology, and the XXI’s would have arrived far too late in any event. There were severe issues with the Italian merchant marine even before the RN started sinking them left and right, which is why Rommel and Co. could only have a relatively small amount of troops down there, often waiting several months for the supplies to build back up. Rommel was operating on a limited timeline, which was destined to end when the Torch landings came along to totally compromise his rear. I don’t think there was much more that he could have done that he didn’t do, until that transpired. I used to like reading alternate history, until I realized that most of the counterfactuals that I encountered often are completely arbitrary (i.e. pulled out of the author’s nether regions) and highly unlikely to have happened during the timeline in question. There was a huge amount of inertia on the Allied side that, while it had taken quite a while to get going, was going to be very very difficult for the Axis to stem once it did. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729/80 "2015-01-17T21:17:29Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Second, the Allies enjoyed great luck. The Battle of Midway was a very close thing. If _either_ their codes were secure _or_ they had better reconaissance during the Battle, Japan would have won that Battle and set back the American cause hugely. A complete loss for the US at Midway would have been a relatively short-term blow. The manufacturing capacity of the US was so far above Japan’s that Japan really had no hope. Read through some of the stats [on this page at CombinedFleet.com](http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm). During the war Japan produced 17 carriers of all kinds (including smaller “escort” carriers). The US produced 141. In 1944 the US built more aircraft (96,318) than Japan did for the entire war (76,320; total US production for the war was 324,750). The page later discusses a theoretical outcome if Japan had completely won the Battle of Midway. By July 1 1943 (~ 1 year after Midway) the US has more carriers than Japan and on Jan 1 1944 it’s a decisive advantage. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/axis-strategy-victory-scenario-in-wwii-possible/709729.md?page=5)