# Bachmann announces she's running **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 14, 2011, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382 "2011-06-14T01:22:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/321 "2011-07-04T14:15:46Z")
> [@Typo\_Knig](#): > > I have seen too many idiots elected to the White House to wish seeing any idiot nominated, even by the other party. What if the idiot wins? I am not sure the republic can take another dumb president. We have more than enough problems with smart presidents doing dumb things. Well, I’ll answer you first since you made a valid argument. I agree, this is why I think we should try to find the best GOP candidate we can. I’m personally not thrilled with any of the possibilities. The guys who might have done a good job like Mitch Daniels opted out. Pawlenty would be good, but man, he is running such a terrible campaign I’m having second thoughts. The sad thing is, I live in IL, which means that it will probably be the only state Obama wins even if he takes a Carter-like Shelacking. So my only chance to have any influence on the process is to pick the best candidate possible in the primary. ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/322 "2011-07-04T14:18:02Z")
> [@amanset](#): > > Did we ever get a cite for that and/or a description of what a “real job” is? I gave up a few pages back as it seemed cleasr to me that answers weren’t going to be given, just the same uncited “statistics” thrown our way again and again. Was like trying to discuss with a particularly poorly designed/coded student AI project. I gave a VERY CLEAR ANSWER. A real job is one where you are held to a standard, and if you don’t meet that standard, you don’t have a job. 20% of graduates who are functionally illiterate is not a standard. Getting paid $100,000 to sit in a rubber room for years because you molested a student but can’t be fired is not a real job. ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/323 "2011-07-04T14:20:05Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > You’re right about that assessment of their real chances, but you’re not seeing that this discussion is really about making fun of Republicans - for allowing either of those two fools to be considered actual plausible nominees for Leader of the Free World. > > And your preference among them, Rick Perry, is a secessionist! If he gets in the spotlight, you’ll certainly hear more about that. Oh, I hope we do. We might even hear what he ACTUALLY said and not the way you fellows characterize it. “We’ve got a great union. There’s absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that. But Texas is a very unique place, and we’re a pretty independent lot to boot.” Read more: [http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/04/15/governor-says-texans-want-secede-union-probably-wont#ixzz1R98GEBjg](http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/04/15/governor-says-texans-want-secede-union-probably-wont#ixzz1R98GEBjg) Sounds to me like he was arguing AGAINST secession to me. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/324 "2011-07-04T14:28:18Z")
He clearly was presenting it as a real possibility if current conditions continue. Is that something you want to defend? ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/325 "2011-07-04T14:34:55Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > He clearly was presenting it as a real possibility if current conditions continue. > > Is that something you want to defend? I think he was expressing the frustration with Washington everyone was feeling. (did the 2010 elections not happen in your universe?) There are some things about Perry I don’t like. His stands on Abortion (really not the government’s business) and gay marriage (a distraction from fixing the real problems.) But running as the “anti-Washington” candidate. I don’t think anyone ever lost an election doing that. It’s why four of the last six presidents have been governors. We want someone to come in from the outside and clean the mess up. ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/326 "2011-07-04T14:46:35Z")
> [@amanset](#): > > Did we ever get a cite for that and/or a description of what a “real job” is? I gave up a few pages back as it seemed cleasr to me that answers weren’t going to be given, just the same uncited “statistics” thrown our way again and again. Was like trying to discuss with a particularly poorly designed/coded student AI project. He did provide a link to some statistics having to do with functional literacy, though some posters dug a little deeper and found the situation was a bit different than what RR was purporting. Don’t remember exactly what conclusion they came to, but if you go back a page or two (or three), you’d be able to see what they said. ---
**Author:** ![amanset](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/327 "2011-07-04T15:12:46Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > I gave a VERY CLEAR ANSWER. > > A real job is one where you are held to a standard, and if you don’t meet that standard, you don’t have a job. > > 20% of graduates who are functionally illiterate is not a standard. > > Getting paid $100,000 to sit in a rubber room for years because you molested a student but can’t be fired is not a real job. And we established (by, you know, looking for evidence of people getting sacked) that bad teachers can actually get fired. Are there many unemployed teachers? Maybe they have to hang on to bad ones as there is no one to replace them, possibly due to idiots like you declaring that it isn’t a “real job” and pouring scorn on them? And teachers earn 100k now? According to my very, very brief research not a single state has an average over 60k. [http://teacherportal.com/teacher-salaries-by-state](http://teacherportal.com/teacher-salaries-by-state) Do you actually look anything up before you open your gob? ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/328 "2011-07-04T15:22:12Z")
> [@amanset](#): > > And we established (by, you know, looking for evidence of people getting sacked) that bad teachers can actually get fired. > > Are there many unemployed teachers? Maybe they have to hang on to bad ones as there is no one to replace them, possibly due to idiots like you declaring that it isn’t a “real job” and pouring scorn on them? > > And teachers earn 100k now? According to my very, very brief research not a single state has an average over 60k. > > [http://teacherportal.com/teacher-salaries-by-state](http://teacherportal.com/teacher-salaries-by-state) > > Do you actually look anything up before you open your gob? I started a thread on “Great Debates” about this and found TWO cases where teachers were making close to $100K after being caught molesting students, and the administration was unable to fire them. Now, I don’t want to get bogged down on this subject because this is really supposed to be a thread about Bachmann. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/329 "2011-07-04T16:00:34Z")
Bachmann and Assoc. universities staff attended Regeant Univ. Argosy U. Bethel Univ. Walden U. Asuza Pacific U. Adler And a couple from U of Wisconsin. A strange group, don’t you think? ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/330 "2011-07-04T16:23:47Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The paper I just linked to is actual research using measured DATA from the economy, not simply a report of the results obtained by running an economic model against a bunch of assumptions. There have been a half-dozen of these papers published recently, and I didn’t find one that showed the kind of effects on the economy that the CBO’s model predicted. Since you made a direct response to my criticism I’ll respond once and then quit from hijacking this thread any further. My cite is your own paper. > [@](#): > > Congressional Budget Office (2010) estimates that the employment increase “attributable to the ARRA” was in the range of 500 to 900 thousand in 2009 and is in the range of 1.3 to 3.3 million for 2010. Their ranges are computed based on both government spending as well as tax cut incentives in the Act. To construct these numbers (in their Table 1), they divide the total spending of the ARRA into its components and then apply low and high output multipliers. These multipliers were delivered from previous studies. > > The Council of Economic Advisors (2010) measures the employment increase due to the Act in two different ways. First, using a multiplier approach similar to the Congressional Budget Office, the CEA estimates that the Act had the effect of increasing employment by 2.5 million workers (Table 4). Second, the CEA estimates a vector autoregression which includes employment from 1990:Q1 to 2007:Q4. Based on those parameter estimates, they forecast gross domestic product for the period after the Act’s implementation. They then interpret the vector autoregression’s forecast error for employment from 2009:Q2 to 2010:Q2 as being due to the policy. According to these estimates (Table 5), at the end of 2010:Q2, the Act had increased employment by 3.6 million workers. > > Blinder and Zandi (2010) find that the employment increase due to the ARRA (including both spending and tax cuts) was 2.7 million jobs. Their estimate is based on the Moody Analytics model of the U.S. economy, which is a statistical model that includes restrictions based upon standard Keynesian assumptions. > > Wilson (2011) estimates the job effects of the Recovery Act using state-level variation in a manner similar to ours. He instruments for endogenity using two cost estimates for the ARRA that existed prior to the Act’s passage. He considers the effect on employment at different horizons following the ARRA’s implementation. For employment through October 2010, he find [sic] that there were 800 thousand additional jobs because of the stimulus. This is close to our “best case” scenario for the ARRA described in the previous section. > > While Wilson’s above number is relatively small compared to other studies, he does find larger employment effects at a more short-run horizon. When evaluating the employment growth through February rather than October of 2010, Wilson finds that the Act saved/created 2.3 million jobs. > > Feyrer and Sacerdote (2011) conduct both a cross-sectional and time series analysis to estimate the employment effects of the ARRA. Based on state-level data, their cross-section estimate implies that the Act created/saved 1.9 million jobs, while their time series estimate implies that the Act created/saved approximately 845 thousand jobs. > > [cut and paste garbled some of the words with weird characters, and I hope that I’ve made all the appropriate corrections] I can’t understand how you could have not found studies that supported the CBO’s estimates when your own cite lays them out in a neat row. The only real outlier is, of course, that Conley and Dupor paper, which was designed from the beginning with the sole purpose of refuting the CBO. Nothing else can explain the use of the lowest possible confidence internal allowable in a published paper. They gloss over the natural result of producing error bars so huge that no legitimate conclusion could be drawn from the data. The proper abstract would be “we found no support in either direction” but that wouldn’t have gotten them any attention. Bachmann (who?) did propose a stimulus alternative in 2009, [according to her site](http://michelebachmann.townhall.com/blog/g/26383b56-cf6e-4254-b2b7-df479801793d), but the abstract takeaway listed nothing but tax cuts and the link to a fuller explanation no longer works. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/331 "2011-07-04T18:55:16Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > I think he was expressing the frustration with Washington everyone was feeling. (did the 2010 elections not happen in your universe?) So _that’s_ what “dissolving the union” means? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2011, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/332 "2011-07-04T21:55:21Z")
Sam, I could see how you missed in in post 300. So, I’ll repeat it here. Yep, and you missed this part of the paper: “It is important to note that we do not have enough precision in our estimates to conclude that number of jobs lost/destroyed was (probably) greater than the number created/saved. Our estimates are consistent with there being a net positive (but not large) number of jobs saved/created. We leave completing an evaluation of crowding explanations for future research.” Read the conclusion, which is full of “more research needed.” Maybe you can find where the authors make a solid case for the AARP “crowding out” private sector jobs. I mean, their biggest arguement was that (paraphrase) State Employees are better educated and “would” have found private sector jobs had their State jobs not been saved by the Fed government spending…" I couldn’t find anything better than that in the paper, and I would like to read their analysis if it’s in there. ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2011, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/333 "2011-07-05T00:05:56Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > Maybe you can find where the authors make a solid case for the AARP “crowding out” private sector jobs. I mean, their biggest arguement was that (paraphrase) State Employees are better educated and “would” have found private sector jobs had their State jobs not been saved by the Fed government spending…" I couldn’t find anything better than that in the paper, and I would like to read their analysis if it’s in there. So would I. Do you think that any private enterprise really wants to hire lazy government workers? ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2011, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/334 "2011-07-05T00:14:54Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Since you made a direct response to my criticism I’ll respond once and then quit from hijacking this thread any further. > > My cite is your own paper. > I can’t understand how you could have not found studies that supported the CBO’s estimates when your own cite lays them out in a neat row. I’ve picked up the argument in [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=614997). Join me there if you’d like. But very quickly: Those other studies listed are also just the results of the same kinds of Keynesian models used by the CBO. The CBO didn’t cite them as evidence of what actually happened, but to show that their choice of models was reasonable, and that the output of their model was roughly in line with other models. The various papers listed vary primarily in the assumptions chosen for their models and forecasts. They’re not based on actual measured results. Actual empirical evidence determines if the models themselves are correct, and that’s what we’re looking at now. And it’s not looking good for the models. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2011, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/335 "2011-07-05T02:23:10Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > The biggest threat- AGAIN- is that if unemployment doesn’t come down, Obama is toast, regardless of who the Republicans run. Which is why I’d like to see more potential runners who aren’t from the cheerleading faction of the Republican party. It’d be nice to have a woman become president, but not just _any_ woman. Certainly neither of the ones who are now in the spotlight. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2011, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/336 "2011-07-07T23:23:54Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > So would I. > > Do you think that any private enterprise really wants to hire lazy government workers? I can not believe there are people still bigoted enough to believe such a neanderthalish meme. A lot of government workers are dedicated, hard working employees. You are insulting them all. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Knig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@Typo\_Knig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Knig)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2011, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/337 "2011-07-08T00:42:17Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > I can not believe there are people still bigoted enough to believe such a neanderthalish meme. A lot of government workers are dedicated, hard working employees. You are insulting them all. I left my office at 7 tonight. At least 2 guvies were still there. I’m pretty sure they both were at 8:00 AM meetings today. I would be surprised if they did not have 8 AM meetings tomorrow. Myth != Data. ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2011, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/338 "2011-07-08T10:35:31Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > I can not believe there are people still bigoted enough to believe such a neanderthalish meme. A lot of government workers are dedicated, hard working employees. You are insulting them all. Funny, I’ve never encountered them. Usually when I have to go to the DMV or any other government agency, it’s usually an excercise in frustration as an unnecessary exchange that should only take five minutes usually ends up taking hours. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2011, 11:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/339 "2011-07-08T11:07:10Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > Funny, I’ve never encountered them. > > Usually when I have to go to the DMV or any other government agency, it’s usually an excercise in frustration as an unnecessary exchange that should only take five minutes usually ends up taking hours. Maybe it’s you? The last time I went to the DMV it took five minutes and they were very pleasant and efficient. Then I went across the parking lot to a different building to register for an absentee ballot, which also took no time at all. And on the occasions I go to the Embassy here they’re very easy to deal with (apart from the security staff who are Professionally Difficult). Usually if there’s a holdup or problem it’s because a member of the public is causing it. ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2011, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382/340 "2011-07-08T11:13:52Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Maybe it’s you? The last time I went to the DMV it took five minutes and they were very pleasant and efficient. Then I went across the parking lot to a different building to register for an absentee ballot, which also took no time at all. And on the occasions I go to the Embassy here they’re very easy to deal with (apart from the security staff who are Professionally Difficult). Usually if there’s a holdup or problem it’s because a member of the public is causing it. Well, why I am sure you are grateful for the benevolence of your government overlords, I find the whole thing an imposition, really. I’ve worked in both the government and the private sector. When it comes to efficiency, there’s simply no comparison. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bachmann-announces-shes-running/585382.md?page=18)