# Barack Obama: the accidental candidate? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 23, 2008, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985 "2008-08-23T01:57:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/1 "2008-08-23T01:57:01Z")
When Barack Obama entered this campaign back in 2007, most people firmly believed that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee in 2008. Some people didn’t like that because they didn’t like her, others of us didn’t like it because, while we like her just fine, we knew there were lots of people who didn’t like her, but it was nonetheless looking like she had the nomination sewn up. I’m guessing that Obama entered the campaign to become known at a national level, and perhaps to get a shot at the VP slot if the Democrats won, thereby positioning himself for a serious run for the White House in 2012 or 2016 depending on whether the Republicans or the Democrats won this year. Then something very strange happened. Obama started winning caucuses and primaries, and where he wasn’t winning, he was coming in a pretty close second. Suddenly he finds himself with donations and volunteers out the wazoo, and very fortunately, he has the organizational skills to deal with them. And voila! A serious candidacy is born. But I really don’t think he expected this when he started out. Do you think I’m nuts? (Mods, this may belong in IMHO) ---
**Author:** ![zoo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/71c47a/32.png) [@zoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoo)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/2 "2008-08-23T02:02:06Z")
I believe Obama entered the race with a serious plan to win the nomination and it worked! The volunteers and donations started to explode back around Sept. 2007 ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/3 "2008-08-23T02:15:24Z")
You may well be right. I wasn’t following it closely at all at that time. All I knew was that I was afraid that if it was HRC, she’d mobilize the Republican base against her and lose, even though I liked her just fine as a candidate for myself. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/4 "2008-08-23T02:33:53Z")
I think Obama felt he had a chance of winning the nomination (and the general election). He seems to have had a plan rather than just “winging” it. Now if Ron Paul was the Republican nominee, I think he’d be surprised. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/5 "2008-08-23T03:03:36Z")
Well, I will say that if so, I’m somewhat surprised. Yes, it’s a ripe time for Obama in some ways, what with Bush’s low ratings and the ability Obama had to ride the Change wave, but with only two years in a national level post, he really was leaving himself open to the lack of experience thing. ETA: It’s fortunate for him that he has the gravitas to overcome what might be far more doubt about a lesser man. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/6 "2008-08-23T03:06:32Z")
People don’t make a serious run for the presidency unless they actually believe they can win. Note I didn’t say “unless they can win.” Belief runs strong in politicians. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/7 "2008-08-23T03:30:24Z")
The Democratic Party has a disproportionate number of black people and they voted disproportionately for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/8 "2008-08-23T03:48:40Z")
Successful, driven people generally do not enter competitions that they don’t believe they can win. He did his research and knew he had a pretty good shot. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/9 "2008-08-23T03:55:03Z")
[QUOTE=Magiver] The Democratic Party has a disproportionate number of black people and they voted disproportionately for Obama. [/QUOTE] 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/10 "2008-08-23T04:02:13Z")
The person most surprised was Hillary. By the time she realized what was happening it was too late. If she took Obama seriously before Iowa she would have won. I think Obama knew that his strategy rested on Hillary not noticing what he was doing. Anyone would have been surprised to win over the Clintons, but Obama was the only other candidate that had a plan that could possibly work. Seventeen million people voting for Obama was no accident. I think the mainstream media was just to stupid grasp anything this complex. Hillary = big name = winner, is all they were capable of. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/11 "2008-08-23T04:03:41Z")
Heck, isn’t it a common trope that Bill Clinton started running for president the day he shook JFK’s hand? I’ve no doubt Obama’s had his eyes on the prize for several years now. At most, he may be mildly surprised that events came together to give him a credible shot in 2008 instead of having to wait for 2012 or 2016. ---
**Author:** ![descamisado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e480ec/32.png) [@descamisado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/descamisado)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/12 "2008-08-23T04:07:09Z")
[QUOTE=Lakai] Seventeen million people voting for Obama was no accident. I think the mainstream media was just to stupid grasp anything this complex. Hillary = big name = winner, is all they were capable of. [/QUOTE] I didn’t know there were seventeen million Negros (sic) in the United States. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/13 "2008-08-23T04:27:30Z")
Actually, there are (according to Wiki) 39,151,870 African Americans in the USA. Presumably at least 17,000,000 were able to vote, but of course may voted for Clinton, and many Caucasions voted for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![descamisado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e480ec/32.png) [@descamisado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/descamisado)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/14 "2008-08-23T04:31:06Z")
[QUOTE=Oy!] Actually, there are (according to Wiki) 39,151,870 African Americans in the USA. Presumably at least 17,000,000 were able to vote, but of course may voted for Clinton, and many Caucasions voted for Obama. [/QUOTE] Your population statistic is, of course, pretty much correct, as is your point (which I badly mishandled) about who voted for whom. I think Obama saw a window of opportunity and made a sincere run for the White House. If it was all about positioning, I think his leadership, promise, intelligence and statesmanlike presence would still have gotten him there eventually. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/15 "2008-08-23T04:32:40Z")
[QUOTE=Bryan Ekers] At most, he may be mildly surprised that events came together to give him a credible shot in 2008 instead of having to wait for 2012 or 2016. [/QUOTE] I know I was, but I’m not complaining. It was one of life’s inevitabilities. Guys, the kid has Presidential Timber stamped on his forehead. We in Illinois knew it at least from 2004. It might’ve taken the rest of the country, and Canada ;), longer to figure it out but not as long as I expected. I thought he wouldn’t run until 2012 and I think he didn’t either until 2007. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/16 "2008-08-23T04:48:01Z")
[QUOTE=Oy!] But I really don’t think he expected this when he started out. Do you think I’m nuts? [/QUOTE] You are not nuts: lots of long-shot politicians run for President. But I believe that you are wrong. Obama has generate buzz for quite a while: [check out this 2004 New Yorker article](http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2004/05/31/040531fa_fact1?currentPage=all). After reading that, I predicted to a friend of mine that he would be President (though I anticipated a ~2016 run). And no, I’ve made no similar calls for other candidates. I add emphasis: > [@The New Yorker Magazine](#): > > …But Barack managed to make those people who disagreed with him feel comfortable with the disagreement.” > > This is a regular theme with Obama: **supporters who disagree with him.** The two big Chicago daily papers both endorsed him enthusiastically in the primary, even though they disagreed with him on major issues—his opposition to the war in Iraq and, in the case of the Tribune, his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement. > > This seems to be a pattern in Illinois. Paul Simon was the most respected political figure in the state for decades. He was a liberal Democrat who came from a conservative downstate region where his name remains political gold. The universal explanation for Simon’s near-universal popularity is “integrity,” and this spring I heard the word a lot from people discussing Obama. It refers to consistency and incorruptibility, but also to a refusal to resort to smear politics. The cultural and political distance between Chicago’s South Side and southern Illinois is vast—Cairo is closer to Little Rock than it is to Chicago, “and not just geographically,” as Obama likes to say. Voters in such disparate places will never agree on affirmative action, gun control, or many other issues that Obama has taken clear positions on. And yet, in a state with a population that is only fifteen per cent African-American, he needs to campaign hard downstate, far from his base, making his pitch on economic issues and personal appeal. > > Obama’s ease in front of predominantly white crowds—or, for that matter, all-white crowds—is a source of wonderment in Illinois. I’ve seen it, and it looks so effortless that it doesn’t seem remarkable. The sight of big white corn farmers proudly wearing big blue “obama” buttons and lining up to shake his hand is, I must say, slightly more striking. Obama is the finest orator of the past two or three generations. He combines the smarts of a policy wonk with the temperament of a deal-cutter. During the smear season it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that Barack Obama is truly an extraordinary man. Incidentally, it was Daschle who persuaded Obama to run in 2008, noting that windows of opportunity don’t always last forever. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/17 "2008-08-23T04:50:59Z")
[QUOTE=Oy!] Actually, there are (according to Wiki) 39,151,870 African Americans in the USA. Presumably at least 17,000,000 were able to vote, but of course may voted for Clinton, and many Caucasions voted for Obama. [/QUOTE] 16,408,000 registered voters in 2004 to be [exact.](http://www.fairvote2020.org/2008/02/african-american-voter-registration.html) ---
**Author:** ![Zoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a4c791/32.png) [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/18 "2008-08-23T05:19:09Z")
I am reminded of the film _Guess Who’s Coming To Dinner_. White parents are confronted with their daughter’s engagement to an African-American. All of his background is impeccable. The parents have to face the fact that the only possible objection that they can have is because of his race. I hear people talk about “a lack of experience.” I think about JFK’s lack of experience and Clinton’s too. If the choice is between “a few years experience in Congress” and “firmly entrenched in the politics of Washington,” I’ll take the first. I can understand why conservatives or Republicans don’t support Obama, but I am skeptical about those Democratis who can’t support this particular candidate. Where is he blemished? ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/19 "2008-08-23T13:44:37Z")
I don’t think he’s blemished in the least. I just think he _might_ have started this run more with the intention of introducing himself at a national level with an eye to actual election in 2012 or 2016, and found it to go better than expected. The only down side about this is, if he loses this year, that’s probably it. Even though if he does lose it’s most likely the lack of experience that will take him down, I don’t see him running again. He’ll become the youngest “elder stateman” on record. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2008, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985/20 "2008-08-23T14:40:36Z")
I entered his campaign seriously with money and resources in Oct. 07’. From what I gather he set his side of the chess board very early on to out play Clinton. I’d say he planned on this outcome from the beginning. I don’t think he entered to get recognized I think he saw a hole and shot right through it. Think of it like when Road Runner is racing down the highway, and all you see is moving feel and a dust cloud…then coyote turns around and looks just in time to see Road Runner flashing past him…which causes him to spin round, and round like a dradle. Clinton was the coyote, and Obama is still the road runner. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-the-accidental-candidate/460985.md?page=2)