It was intended as a comment on how little his ethnicity seemed to get discussed in 2004. After all, Illinois had already elected one black senator and though she had been less than re-electable six years before the electability discussion had already been settled. Also, IIRC, by the time Ryan’s revelations were, er, revealed the Mobama had begun to build and it was looking like less of a horserace.
Illinois’s shape and size should speak toward Obama’s national electability. As his mentor, Paul Simon, once said (paraphrasing), “My downstate home is as close to Atlanta as it is to Chicago.” Blacks are easily elected to statewide office here and do not require all their votes to come from Chicago: Secretary of State Jesse White won all 102 counties in 2002.
It 's certainly interesting to hear Obama tarred as being wishy washy. Does he even come close to what Guiliani has done and will have to do to win the Republican nomination in that sense?
I really don’t see what his race has to do with anything. Folks are, IMHO, putting too much emphasis on that. I think that a black (or hispanic) man could certainly be elected…if he were electable. Look at whats been served up as far as blacks go so far in a presidential race. Obama though…he has real potential IMHO. I dont think his race would enter into it at all. YMMV…
What made Colin Powell “electable”? Light skin, “well-spokenness” (i.e. no hint of ebonics), and conservative politics. Obama’s got the first two, but the last, not so much.
And I don’t see anything in that voting record, or in anything I’ve heard him say, that can be called “wishy washy.” I’d love some documented examples.
I disagree. You are correct that there is a segment of the electorate who would not vote for a black man. But that segment is hard-core Republican, and they would never vote for a Democrat of any color. (At least, that’s the way it is here in the South.)
Moreover, having a black candidate would likely energize black voters, and that could help the Democratic Party not just at the top of the ticket, but all the way down the ballot.
It will be interesting to see how Harold Ford does in the Tennessee Senatorial election. The fact that he has a slim lead in polls speaks volumes about how much the South has changed over the span of a couple of generations. He is holding his own against a pretty strong and popular Republican opponent.
As for Obama not being a Southerner, I don’t see that as being as much of an issue. I believe Southerners feel more comfort with black candidates than they do with white New Englanders. (No offense, New England.) For example, I can guarantee you that in a race between Colin Powell and John Kerry, Powell would sweep the South.
Would Powell run as a Democrat?
For me it would depend upon who wanted to feed the poor guys and who wanted to screw them; or rather, who wanted to screw the poor guys and who wanted to screw the wealthy.
You’re right. I was confusing Obama with Evan Bayh, another talked-about Democrat presidential candidate with a weird name. My apologies to Barack and screw you Evan.
I would love to agree with you. I’d like to think that the US has gotten above all that. I agree that sourthern Republicans wouldn’t vote for a Dem of any color. But I think there is enough residual racism nationwide to make the job much harder for a black person to be elected president. As razor-thin as the differences in party strengths are in the US, even if only 1% of the electorate is bigoted, it could tip the scales for or against someone. I’m sure at some point that color barrier will be broken. But I’m not sure that it is possible now.
Well, that’s not exactly what I said. I said the hard-core racists would never vote for a Democrat. Not that Southern Republicans would never vote for a Democrat.
See, “hard-core racist” and “southern Republican” are not synonymous. Hard-core racists are just a subset.
I don’t know how far down that tiny bit of racism lies that would vote by skin color. It may be non existant and a mere paranoid consideration on my part.
I would certainly not want to risk a Black or fellow Jewish Democratic candidate against a White Republican of Bush style with the Presidency at stake in Little Rock, Skokie or Boston.
I would agree with the others in this thread who say that a senator’s record just works against him in a presidential campagin. I would go further and say if Obama is ever going to run, this would be his one real chance.
If he fails or gets torn up in the primaries, then he would probably get torn up in the primaires in 4 or 8 years anyway. He is never going to have fewer skeletons in the closet. It seems if you are gonna use the senate as a stepping stone to the Oval Office, it is best not to tarry there.
Modern (post 1921) Senators who became President:
Truman: Probably not without Roosevelt, I’d say.
Nixon: Never a more determined man existed. I would have to say he was a special case, a short Senate term, a long time before becoming President.
Kennedy: One term, 'nuff said.
Johnson: Probably not without Kennedy.
A good example that jumps out on preview: I have never heard Evan Bayh’s name outside of this message board. Now I would have to vote against him, considering his record on flag burning legislation.
Interestingly, per a Time magazine article that I saw just a day or two ago, Obama may even take that chance. (He distinctly didn’t rule out the possibility.) I was very surprised, but perhaps he just thinks this is his moment.
No, but he did take it from 49th to 47th in education, 50th to 49th in infant mortality, and, in addition, somehow still managed to rocket the ‘Natural’ state from 48th to 45th in median income. I’ll tell you for sure, he would have had my vote if I was an Arkansas[del]an[/del] Arkansas[del]er[/del] from his state.
