Even more of a reason to bat him higher in the lineup.
People always say that, but I’m not at all sure it’s true.
Yes, speed has its uses - and it’s hard to teach - but less than one might think.
I’ve usually favored LaRussa’s argument that one needs to put good hitters and baserunners through the lineup to maintain pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense. Focusing on placing top hitters and speedsters at the top of the lineup may get a marginal advantage but there may also be a marginal disadvantage for a team should the drop off in hitting talent be significant after the #4 spot in the lineup. The opponents need to bear down and then can let up and cruise for an inning wherein the thread is significantly lessened.
Or here’s an analogy. Which would you rather have? A player who hits .400 before the all star break and .200 after or a play who hits .300 the entire season? Both are .300 hitters but the consistent one contributes more to winning games over the long haul than the non-consistent one.
Neat discussion in this thread. I’ve learned a lot.
I agree with your first point about speed. Has it been shown how many extra runs a significant stolen base threat adds by his stealing? Moreover, with SB attempts as low as they are, even with Outcome Joe, I’m not sure his basestealling makes that much of a difference. ‘That much of a difference’ being defined as his difference in RAR or WAR, whether he steals 10 bases a season at 80 percent, or 40. Did it even significantly increase WAR/RAR for someone like Rickey Henderson?
As to LaRussa’s theory, I’m curious whether there’s evidence to support it. I like the idea of second-order effects like a pitcher fatiguing faster because he can’t mentally take an inning off anymore, but I don’t know if it significantly exists. Even if it does, I don’t like the idea of degrading the heart of a lineup, as I think that really lowers the chance of a multi run inning, and lowers the chances of it more than they’d be raised by facing a more fatigued pitcher.
If we believe Marilyn vos Savant’s statement (and she probably got it from James, but she’s where I read it first.), that ‘in most cases, the winning baseball team scores more runs in one inning than the other team does all game,’ then a rational team should do everything it can to ensure that big inning.
For you final example, I’d rather have the hot/cold player. I can always replace him during his cold streak. As the Astros eventually did with, e.g., Evan Gattis Evan Gattis 2018 Batting Splits | Baseball-Reference.com
Where his May 2018 was: .281/.342/.609, with 6 HR, yet his final numbers were: .226/.284/.452. And he helped them win quite a few games in May and June, yet played all of 34 games after July 31.
Not much. Roughly speaking you add one run for every five steals and subtract a run for every two caught stealing. That’s VERY rough but close enough, and obviously the situation matters a lot. Joe is adding maybe 5-6 runs a year with basestealing.
That said, a fast runner adds additional runs with good baserunning, assuming they’re not stupid. Joe’s speed, overall, could be worth ten runs or so. That’s a fair amount, worth about one full win a year.
Where Joe should hit in the lineup depends who his teammates are, of course. He might be the best leadoff hitter his team has. If his team has Rickey Henderson, he should probably bat second, but maybe his team also has Tim Raines and he should bat fifth.