# Baseball June 2009 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 1, 2009, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348 "2009-06-01T13:24:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/101 "2009-06-11T02:45:18Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Rangers and Blue Jays rained out. Ugh, that will be a hard game to make up. I don’t think they’d try to get a doubleheader in tomorrow and I doubt the Blue Jays come back to Dallas this year. They’re in Texas Aug 31 - Sept 2, but no off day. I don’t understand the MLB schedule at all. Toronto and Texas play ten times - seven scheduled in Texas, three in Toronto. Huh? ---
**Author:** ![pricciar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f4b2a3/32.png) [@pricciar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pricciar)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/102 "2009-06-11T02:50:14Z")
[The Curious Case of Raul Ibanez: Steroid Speculation Perhaps Unfair, but Great Start in 2009 Raising Eyebrows](http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2009/06/raul-ibanez-great-start-comes-with-steroid-speculation/) What does everyone think of this article? I know the entire sport is tainted but starting speculation over barely half a season of output is ridiculous. Especially with stupid lines like > [@](#): > > And maybe that training included… > > Well, you know where that one was going, but I’d prefer to leave it as unstated speculation. However, if Ibanez ends up hitting 45-50 homers this year, you can bet that I won’t be the only one raising the question. And judging by my buddy’s message board post this morning, and questions like this in public forums, people already are. I like how his unstated speculation is actually explicitly stated in the title of the blog post. He keeps defending himself by saying he’s not the first to bring it up. Ok, unfounded speculation on message boards came first and you put it out there for even more people to see. Apparently, Ibanez is livid. And, I can see why. Even the guy’s apology was half assed. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/103 "2009-06-11T02:59:43Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > They’re in Texas Aug 31 - Sept 2, but no off day. > > I don’t understand the MLB schedule at all. Toronto and Texas play ten times - seven scheduled in Texas, three in Toronto. Huh? OK, so the Rangers will probably wait to see if both teams are still in the race to decide to make the game up as a regular doubleheader or the despicable day-night doubleheader. I don’t think the Rangers have ever had a day-night doubleheader, but I could be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/104 "2009-06-11T03:02:39Z")
Classy move by the D-backs. They just acknowledged Randy Johnson’s 300 wins. Johnson stood up out of the Giants dugout to tip his cap and waive to the crowd. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/105 "2009-06-11T12:59:15Z")
> [@pricciar](#): > > What does everyone think of this article? The standard defense will be, of course, that since cheating is apparently insanely widespread - Manny, Bonds, McGwire, Palmiero, A-Rod, so on and so forth - that all home run hitters are suspect. Now, accusing Ibanez of juicing based solelyt on the evidence that he has hit a lot of home runs up until early June is irresponsible. Players sometimes just get off to really hot starts. There were weird home run spikes before steroids, and there always will be. Was Davey Johnson using 'roids when he hit 43 homers? Did Hank Aaron juice up when he set a career high in homers at age 37? (And that in a season where he missed a fair number of games.) Having said that, **the article does not accuse Ibanez of using steroids** ; it explores the issue with facts and figures. This line sums it up: > [@](#): > > But I think it’s also true that Raul Ibanez would have a hard time looking baseball fans in the eye and saying they have no right to speculate. Through no fault of his own, but through that of his peers past and present, steroid speculation is now as much a part of baseball as the MLB Network. He’s right. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/106 "2009-06-11T13:24:35Z")
> [@drm](#): > > While I agree that measuring a pitchers success via wins and losses is silly, I’m not sure I see your point. > > When it comes down to it, AJ Burnett is an often injured, slightly above average pitcher. Period. Heck, a 1.29 career WHIP puts him 424th all time. His 110 Adjusted ERA plus puts him the low 300s all time. His 2.22 K/BB puts him at 160th all time. These numbers aren’t in line with his Salary but he plays for the Yankees so who really cares what his salary is, the Yanks probably don’t. > > He’s not an ace and isn’t even a number 2 guy (which I don’t think he is supposed to be) but he’d be a good guy to fill out a rotation somewhere between 3 and 5 depending on the strength of the particular rotation. > > Maybe I’m making your point, maybe I’m not. I can’t be sure. 😛 Well, when i was looking over his stats in an effort to refute **Rysto** ’s argument about wins, i came to pretty much the same conclusion as you: above-average-but-not-great starter. But then i did, in fact, come to the conclusion that this was being too hard on him. As \*\* Hawkeyeop\*\* notes, he’s been a pretty good starter in a division where his team faced the Yankees and Red Sox about 38 times a year, and he pitched in a pretty hitter-friendly ballpark. I still think above-average-but-not-great is probably a reasonable description, but in saying that it’s worth remembering how scarce top-line baseball talent is, and how damn good you have to be in order to be above average in the major leagues, and especially in the AL East. > [@Rysto](#): > > I understand that, but his career stats are actually pretty good, right, especially his WHIP? I think that in the specific case of AJ it’s the best stat that shows how wildly inconsistent he is. But if he’s wildly inconsistent in terms of his pitching performance, surely the best stats to tell us that are the stats that measure how good his actual pitching is, not the stat that tell us whether or not the guys on his team manage to score any runs? I’m don’t have the time right now to go back to his stats and make and argument one way or another about his career consistency, but if he has indeed been inconsistent, it should show up in the stats like WHIP, or ERA+, or K/9, or K/BB, or Ground Ball %, some other combination of stats that actually measure his effectiveness as a pitcher. The Baseball Prospectus book _Baseball Between the Numbers_, in a chapter on pitching, actually discusses the reliability and consistency of various pitching stats, showing that some stats fluctuate wildly from year to year for _all_ pitchers, and thus are very unreliable measures of a pitcher’s quality, while other stats tend to display strong year-to-year reliability. I don’t have the book with me right now, but IIRC WINS was about the worst in terms of consistency for all pitchers (Not just A Burnett). Pitchers’ win totals can fluctuate wildly from year to year without telling us anything much at all about the pitcher’s quality. I think the most reliable stat was fond to be Ground Ball %. Perhaps the best recent illustration of the Wins thing is Roger Clemens’ season with the Astros a few years back. He pitched absolutely lights-out, with an ERA of about 1.8 or something ridiculous, but he won almost no games because Houston were apparently sending Little Leaguers to the plate every time he started for them. **Rack-a-Bones** , i wasn’t trying to imply that the interference call was wrong; i think it was clearly correct, as the replay that i linked clearly shows. Even the fairly partisan Orioles commentators were sure of that. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/107 "2009-06-11T13:46:21Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Ooooh, two home runs! Wow! He’s old (for a player of his type), fat, over the hill and off the juice. You don’t need stats to see that. Oh, I’m sure he’ll come back a bit… he can’t hit .190 all year. His years of being a legitimately good player are behind him. He’ll be out of baseball in a couple of years. You really ought to try watching the game sometime, you know? :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Ichbin\_Dubist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/51bf81/32.png) [@Ichbin\_Dubist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ichbin_Dubist)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/108 "2009-06-11T14:26:03Z")
Stats, know nothing, parents’ basement, blah blah blah. I would not be unprecedented for a fat power-hitter to fall off the cliff in his mid-30s. Mo Vaughan, I’m lookin’ at you. That said, I like Ortiz, and I hope he makes it back. I hope I don’t need to watch every Sox game to have an opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/109 "2009-06-11T14:27:41Z")
> [@mhendo](#): > > But if he’s wildly inconsistent in terms of his pitching performance, surely the best stats to tell us that are the stats that measure how good his actual pitching is, not the stat that tell us whether or not the guys on his team manage to score any runs? And which stat is that? Every pitching stat is an average, so you lose all information about how consistent he is from start to start. ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/110 "2009-06-11T14:31:05Z")
> [@mhendo](#): > > Well, when i was looking over his stats in an effort to refute **Rysto** ’s argument about wins, i came to pretty much the same conclusion as you: above-average-but-not-great starter. But then i did, in fact, come to the conclusion that this was being too hard on him. As \*\* Hawkeyeop\*\* notes, he’s been a pretty good starter in a division where his team faced the Yankees and Red Sox about 38 times a year, and he pitched in a pretty hitter-friendly ballpark. > > I still think above-average-but-not-great is probably a reasonable description, but in saying that it’s worth remembering how scarce top-line baseball talent is, and how damn good you have to be in order to be above average in the major leagues, and especially in the AL East. I see what you’re saying and I agree. The tough thing to get over is the contract, I think and I guess when you take into consideration that the Yanks have, for all intents and purposes, no budget you toss that out and remove it from consideration. It’s hard considering he makes so much but I suppose you have to. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/111 "2009-06-11T14:33:27Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > You… We know your song; you don’t have to keep singing it. Ortiz is over the hill and anyone can see it. Players like Ortiz don’t usually last that long, so why is this a surprise? We could all see it coming. The Red Sox would be much better off cutting him; surely they can find a better hitter somewhere in their system? **Added later:** Actually, looking at Pawtucket’s roster, maybe not. There isn’t a lot of hitting at AAA right now. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/112 "2009-06-11T15:24:36Z")
> [@Rysto](#): > > And which stat is that? Every pitching stat is an average, so you lose all information about how consistent he is from start to start. There are plenty of stats out there, it just a matter of what exactly you are looking for and how complex you want to get. A nice simple one is quality starts. Times that a pitcher has thrown 6+ innings while allowing 3 or less runs. It has flaws too, but does show how often the pitcher at least kept the team in the game. I have to say though I don’t really see the value of consistency. Does winning 15 games in April and 5 in May count less than 10 in each month? Is there anyone who would rather two straight years of 81-81 then one of 91 and one of 71? ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/113 "2009-06-11T15:37:18Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > I have to say though I don’t really see the value of consistency. Does winning 15 games in April and 5 in May count less than 10 in each month? Is there anyone who would rather two straight years of 81-81 then one of 91 and one of 71? I’m talking about consistency from start to start. AJ can flirt with a no-hitter one start and get belted the next(it’s already happened to him this season). Pitching well 1 in every 2 games isn’t particularly useful to any time. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/114 "2009-06-11T15:38:37Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > We know your song; you don’t have to keep singing it. > > Ortiz is over the hill and anyone can see it. Players like Ortiz don’t usually last that long, so why is this a surprise? We could all see it coming. > > The Red Sox would be much better off cutting him; surely they can find a better hitter somewhere in their system? > > **Added later:** Actually, looking at Pawtucket’s roster, maybe not. There isn’t a lot of hitting at AAA right now. They should trade for Ordonez. They may revive him there. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/115 "2009-06-11T15:45:53Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > I have to say though I don’t really see the value of consistency. Does winning 15 games in April and 5 in May count less than 10 in each month? Is there anyone who would rather two straight years of 81-81 then one of 91 and one of 71? Well, there’s a difference between team consistency and player consistency. A pitcher who varies wildly from start to start is concerning because it suggests flaws in his approach or mechanics. Pitching is a skill of extreme repetition with almost no room for error; the slightest change in release point, landing of the front foot, rotation of the shoulders or what have you can mean the difference between an unhittable strike and a 430-foot home run. Pitching is very mechanics-heavy, and a pitcher whose mechanics are off can not only lose effectiveness, but can get injured very easily. And in fact, A.J. Burnett has been injured a lot. He may not exactly be tearing the AL up, but better he stays healthy than he gets hurt and they’re forced to start someone who’s way worse. I think Burnett’s ability is being just a little downplayed here; he’s a well above average pitcher. Saying he’s 424th all-time in adjusted ERA or some other criticism like that seems beside the point to me. Arguing whether he’s a “2” or a “4” starter is also pointless. There’s no such position as a “number 2 starter.” Either you are pitching or you’re not, and it doesn’t matter what order your rotation starts in. Your position in the rotation’s determined by how good your teammates are. If he were still with the Jays he’d be the #2 because he’s not as good as Roy Halladay but he’s better than the various other plug-in solutions they’re forced to start. If he was with Washington he’d be the ace because their ace is someone named John Lannan. Actually, if he was with Washington he might also bat third and play second base. The issue with Burnett is not so much his ability as the fact that he shows the most ability when he’s pitching for a new contract AND that’s the only time he manages to stay healthy all year. He’s also 32, so it’s not like there’s a lot of reason to think he’s going to suddenly find some untapped talent. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/116 "2009-06-11T15:50:42Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > We know your song; you don’t have to keep singing it. We know yours too, and you don’t have to keep \*whining \*it. > [@](#): > > Ortiz is over the hill and anyone can see it. But not done. He’s had a bad slump, while overcoming the effects of his wrist surgery, but that doesn’t last forever. Would you care to discuss the length of time it so often takes guys to get their offense back after hand or wrist injuries? Many have taken a lot longer than Papi, you know. > [@](#): > > Players like Ortiz don’t usually last that long, so why is this a surprise? Now here comes the comparable-player numbers, right? “Players like Ortiz” … > [@](#): > > We could all see it coming. What player has \*ever \*lasted forever? Please. > [@](#): > > The Red Sox would be much better off cutting him; surely they can find a better hitter somewhere in their system? You \*really \*ought to pay more attention to the game. > [@](#): > > **Added later:** Actually, looking at Pawtucket’s roster, maybe not. There isn’t a lot of hitting at AAA right now. Nor is AAA “their system”. The key player development stage is AA ball. AAA is essentially a finishing school, for guys who would already be on the club for a badly-run organization like Toronto’s. Seriously, for those readers who are serious, the best power-hitting prospect in the Boston system is Lars Anderson, now struggling but making his adjustments there. He might be in AAA later this year if he can snap out of it, or maybe not. Josh Reddick and Aaron Bates might beat him, though. Also seriously, if the Sox were to decide to cut Papi (and you really, REALLY don’t know the game if you think that’s a possibility), the replacement would likely come in a trade for other prospects. More realistically, they’d rotate people into the slot for quasi days off, and add someone who can play the field to replace him on the roster. A full-time DH and a 12-man pitching staff severely limits the manager’s options. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/117 "2009-06-11T15:57:45Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > I have to say though I don’t really see the value of consistency. Does winning 15 games in April and 5 in May count less than 10 in each month? Yes, because of the effect on the bullpen. An inconsistent starter doesn’t allow the manager to set up any kind of rotation with the relievers, since they almost all have to be available in case the guy just doesn’t have it that day. That has a ripple effect on other games, and even on the roster construction. It has an effect on the lineup, too - the manager may not feel he can afford to rest a star on days Mr. Hotandcold is pitching, for fear he may need the extra runs. > [@](#): > > Is there anyone who would rather two straight years of 81-81 then one of 91 and one of 71? There are a disturbing number of teams whose managements do think that way instead of building up championship-caliber rosters. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/118 "2009-06-11T15:58:48Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > They should trade for Ordonez. They may revive him there. How would that be an improvement? ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/119 "2009-06-11T16:36:04Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > How would that be an improvement? He is not a zero. He has made some big hits but he is not earning his salary.New York or Boston can afford to dump money on him and he does make game winning hits. He also might be revived with a move. He is up to 279 and has 21 RBIs. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2009, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348/120 "2009-06-11T16:47:32Z")
A team looking to get reliable production out a particular hole in the lineup, to win the Series this year, wouldn’t be interested in that. But that doesn’t explain Boston’s interest in Jeff Francoeur. They must see something in him. Let’s just hope it’s not the same thing they saw in Julio Lugo. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/baseball-june-2009/498348.md?page=7)