# Based on new Pew Typology: Yes, the Tea Party movement, etc., is generationally time-limited
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [May 24, 2011, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033 "2011-05-24T17:14:37Z")
**Posts on this page:** 13
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/1 "2011-05-24T17:14:37Z")
A question I posed in [this 2009 thread,](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=579317) based partly on the 2005 version of the Pew Political Typology. The [makes the picture even clearer.
> [@](#):
>
> The most visible shift in the political landscape since Pew Research’s previous political typology in early 2005 is the emergence of a single bloc of across-the-board conservatives. The long-standing divide between economic, pro-business conservatives and social conservatives has blurred. Today, **Staunch Conservatives** take extremely conservative positions on nearly all issues – on the size and role of government, on economics, foreign policy, social issues and moral concerns. Most agree with the Tea Party and even more very strongly disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance. A second core group of Republicans – **Main Street Republicans** – also is conservative, but less consistently so.
Typology group profiles on [url=[http://people-press.org/2011/05/04/typology-group-profiles/](http://people-press.org/2011/05/04/typology-group-profiles/)]this page.](]2011 version[/url) The Staunch Conservatives – 9% of adult population, 10% of registered voters –
> [@](#):
>
> **Basic Description:** This extremely partisan Republican group is strongly conservative on economic and social policy and favors an assertive foreign policy. They are highly engaged in politics, most (72%) agree with the Tea Party, 54% regularly watch Fox News, and nearly half (47%) believe that President Obama was born outside the U.S.
>
> **Defining values:** Extremely critical of the federal government and supportive of sharply limited government. Pro-business and strongly opposed to environmental regulation. Believe that military strength is the best way to ensure peace. Highly religious; most say homosexuality should be discouraged by society.
>
> **Who they are:** More than nine-in-ten (92%) non-Hispanic white and 56% male. The oldest of the groups (61% ages 50 and older). Married (79%), Protestant (72%, including 43% white evangelical), and financially comfortable (70% say paying the bills is not a problem).
>
> **Lifestyle notes:** Many are gun owners (57%) and regular churchgoers (57% attend weekly or more often), and fully 81% are homeowners. More watch Glenn Beck (23%) and listen to Rush Limbaugh (21%) than any other group
– are the Tea Party’s base. Presumably the Tea Party, with its anti-tax, starve-the-beast rhetoric, also gets some support from the Libertarians (meaning, not the Libertarian Party, but a socially liberal Republican-leaning typology group, 9% of population, 10% of voters); but the Staunch Conservatives are their base — in fact, they’re really the base of the whole of post-Goldwater movement conservatism.
Andy they are also the **oldest** typology group – see [the page on demographics and news sources.](http://people-press.org/2011/05/04/section-3-demographics-and-news-sources/) 28% of them are over 65, 33% are 50-64. I contend that this is a generational-culture thing, not a stage-of-life thing – that is, the Staunch Conservatives, as they die off, will not be replaced by comparable numbers of Staunch Conservatives from younger generations, because younger generations, whatever social environment they were raised in, simply do not share their world-view. The Staunch Conservatives will leave the GOP to the Main Street Republicans or some equivalent, eventually. And that will shift the political center-of-gravity in America perceptibly leftward. (Not dramatically leftward – the Staunch Conservatives have no analogue on the LW side, not in America. The nearest equivalent would be the Solid Liberals, but not even they are what Europeans would call “leftist”.)
Although the study does not address this directly, I would speculate that the Staunch Conservative group also encompasses America’s remaining hardcore white racists. At any rate, it is the only group that gives a highly unfavorable rating to **Michelle** Obama.
The **youngest** typology group, BTW, is the Post Moderns – 13% of adult population, 14% of registered voters –
> [@](#):
>
> **Basic Description:** Well-educated and financially comfortable. Post-Moderns are supportive of many aspects of government though they take conservative positions on questions about racial policy and the social safety net. Very liberal on social issues. Post-Moderns were strong supporters of Barack Obama in 2008, but turned out at far lower rates in 2010.
>
> **Defining values:** Strongly supportive of regulation and environmental protection. Favor the use of diplomacy rather than military force to ensure peace. Generally positive about immigrants and their contributions to society.
>
> **Who they are:** The youngest of the typology groups (32% under age 30); a majority are non-Hispanic white (70%) and have at least some college experience (71%). Nearly a third (31%) are unaffiliated with any religious tradition. Half live in either the Northeast (25%) or the West (25%). A majority (58%) lives in the suburbs.
>
> **Lifestyle notes:** 63% use social networking. One-in-five (20%) regularly listen to NPR, 14% regularly watch The Daily Show, 10% read the New York Times. 31% trade stocks and 53% have a passport.
Their strikingly commonsensical world-view would seem to be the, or at least a, wave of the future.
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### Author:  [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/2 "2011-05-24T17:23:44Z")
All movements are generationally time limited. And you’re making the assumption that these “Post Moderns” will stay “Post Moderns” as they age. The Pew Political typology is one way to categorize what the political spectrum is now. It’s less useful in determining future trends.
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### Author:  [@Acid\_Lamp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acid_Lamp)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/3 "2011-05-24T17:26:39Z")
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. We won’t see meaningful change in this country until the entire WWII generation has died off. So another election cycle or so of total craziness, and then they will have no choice but to focus on the emerging retirees, who are far more likely to be physically active and socially more liberal. This will cause an inevitable shift to the center from the right, and likely drive the left farther as gen x’ers, millenials, and whatever we are calling today’s teens come of age and enter the workforce and politics. We are already seeing a little bit of that with extremely young (compared to previous generations) people being elected to local positions. That’s a good thing for society overall. Policy determines the future, and that belongs to younger folks, not the seniors who had their time already.
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### Author:  [@Acid\_Lamp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acid_Lamp)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/4 "2011-05-24T17:31:27Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#):
>
> All movements are generationally time limited. And you’re making the assumption that these “Post Moderns” will stay “Post Moderns” as they age. The Pew Political typology is one way to categorize what the political spectrum is now. It’s less useful in determining future trends.
True, but most people do not undergo a radical shift in social ideologies as they age. It’s more common to shift fiscal perspective, but that will simply mean that the current far right will have to drop the religious nuts if they want to play at all in the future. I may not like the Dem fiscal platform, but I’ll be damned if I’ll vote in someone from the right who wants to inhibit civil liberties, strip funding from education and libraries, teach veiled or outright religious program in public schools, and favors cuts for the wealthy who don’t need them.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/5 "2011-05-24T17:45:02Z")
> [@Acid\_Lamp](#):
>
> True, but most people do not undergo a radical shift in social ideologies as they age.
Actually, [this study](http://ourgeneration.org/2008/03/10/washington-post-older-people-arent-rigid-in-beliefs/) suggests people grow more **liberal** as they age.
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### Author:  [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/6 "2011-05-24T17:54:44Z")
> [@Acid\_Lamp](#):
>
> I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. We won’t see meaningful change in this country until the entire WWII generation has died off.
My thought exactly. I love my parents, but the Baby Boomers have gotta go. 😛
Eventually only people who were born after the Civil Rights Movement will be alive, and then things will get really interesting.
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### Author:  [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/7 "2011-05-24T18:08:19Z")
We do need the WW2 and much of the Boomer generation to die off before we implement the complete realm of social changes we need (equal rights for homosexuals, drug reform). The Teabaggers, despite their protestations, are deeply socially conservative in a way that those born later are not.
On the other hand, the fiscal policy issues probably won’t change too much in the big picture, since, unlike social questions, it’s more of a zero-sum game. It’s just the actors and roles that will change a bit. You’ll always have people wanting to limit government (except those programs that personally benefit them, of course,) and those trying to use government to help their friends, along with a couple of fiscally sane people thrown in for a change of pace.
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### Author:  [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/8 "2011-05-24T18:15:09Z")
There are a couple reasons why these typologies don’t seem to be so hot:
[ol]
[li]The group of registered voters are very demographically different from the people who actually vote.[/li][li]Voting occurs at the state level, and there’s going to be significant variation from state to state.[/li][/ol]
Anything that doesn’t take into account these facts is bad for making predictions.
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### Author:  [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Deal_Democrat)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/9 "2011-05-24T18:18:38Z")
The Tea Party movement may be generationally time-limited. Unfortunately, during the Great Depression it can do a lot of harm by standing in the way of efforts by the government to reduce the unemployment rate, and help the unemployed.
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### Author:  [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/10 "2011-05-24T18:34:48Z")
> [@Bosstone](#):
>
> My thought exactly. I love my parents, but the Baby Boomers have gotta go. 😛
>
> Eventually only people who were born after the Civil Rights Movement will be alive, and then things will get really interesting.
The WWII generation is not the Boomers. The Boomers are their selfish children (I wonder how they got that way :rolleyes:). After their enormous contribution to winning the Big One, they set out to rob their grandchildren of a future by racking up debts to pay for their retirements, medical care, political goals, and covering up inconvenient societal problems. They certainly have to go, and they are rapidly. The Boomers are going to live well off the unfunded largesse of their parents, while their children pay the bills. I was born in 1956 at the end of the major part of the Boom. My friends of similar age agree that we will be the last to locusts to reach the field. Oh, goodie :rolleyes:
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### Author:  [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/11 "2011-05-24T18:49:12Z")
That has been my belief, as the tea party dies off and is replaced by millennials, you will see political changes all across the US. However it will take a decade or so before the effects are really seen.
I don’t know if millennials will keep up their more left wing politics. But in 2004 they gave Kerry about a 10-11 point margin. By 2006 they gave dems a 22 point margin. By 2008 it was about a 33 point margin. I think in 2010 it shrunk back to about 20 points.
But if 5% of the electorate that gives conservatives a 30 point margin dies and is replaced by 5% who give liberals a 30 point margin, that will have big effects in swing states and close races.
I have no idea though if latinos or millennials will keep margins in favor of left of center political ideals and voting habits. If so, the next 20 years should be interesting for how the country changes.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [May 24, 2011, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/12 "2011-05-24T19:00:34Z")
[quote=“ultrafilter, post:8, topic:583033”]
There are a couple reasons why these typologies don’t seem to be so hot:
[list=1]
[li]The group of registered voters are very demographically different from the people who actually vote.[/li][/quote]
1. Cite?
2. How?
3. Why? . . . Sorry. Why, Opal?
> [@ultrafilter](#):
>
> [li]Voting occurs at the state level, and there’s going to be significant variation from state to state.[/li]
> Anything that doesn’t take into account these facts is bad for making predictions.
See [this page,](http://people-press.org/2011/05/04/section-3-demographics-and-news-sources/) scroll down to second section, “Where They Live.”
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [May 25, 2011, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/based-on-new-pew-typology-yes-the-tea-party-movement-etc-is-generationally-time-limited/583033/13 "2011-05-25T13:43:03Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#):
>
> That has been my belief, as the tea party dies off and is replaced by millennials, you will see political changes all across the US. However it will take a decade or so before the effects are really seen.
Maybe sooner than that – it all depends on whether the Tea Party, which was largely responsible for the GOP wins in 2010, can sustain its momentum, its “intensity advantage”. If not . . .
> [@](#):
>
> While Republicans trail the Democrats in party affiliation, they enjoy advantages in other areas: The two core GOP groups are more homogenous – demographically and ideologically – than are the three core Democratic groups. And socioeconomic differences are more apparent on the left: Nearly half of Solid Liberals (49%) are college graduates, compared with 27% of New Coalition Democrats and just 13% of Hard-Pressed Democrats.
>
> The GOP still enjoys an intensity advantage, which proved to be a crucial factor in the Republicans’ victories in the 2010 midterm elections. For example, the GOP’s core groups – Staunch Conservatives and Main Street Republicans – express strongly negative opinions about last year’s health care legislation, while reactions among the Democratic groups are more mixed. Even Solid Liberals offer only tepid support for the bill – 43% say it will have a mostly positive impact on the nation’s health care, while somewhat more (51%) say it will have a mixed effect.
>
> However, maintaining solid support among the GOP-oriented groups in the center of the typology represents a formidable challenge for Republicans. The cross-pressured Disaffecteds highlight this challenge. They were an important part of the GOP coalition in 2010, but were lackluster supporters of John McCain two years earlier.
>
> Like the core GOP groups, most Disaffecteds (73%) view government as nearly always wasteful and inefficient. At the same time, a solid majority of Disaffecteds (61%) say the government should do more to help needy Americans even if that means going deeper into debt.
>
> Libertarians, the other Republican-leaning group, overwhelmingly oppose expanding aid for the poor if it means increasing the nation’s debt. Yet on immigration and homosexuality, Libertarians’ views differ markedly from those of the core Republican groups. Fully 71% of Libertarians say homosexuality should be accepted by society; nearly as many Staunch Conservatives (68%) say it should be discouraged.
American post-Goldwater movement conservatism was always a coalition of social-cultural paleocons (with wings emphasizing religious and racial issues respectively), foreign-policy-hawk neocons, and economic libertarians. It was always unstable. Being out of power always forces a party’s or movement’s factions to close ranks, but the divisions remain visible.