Say that you eat 500 units of food a day. With your inactive lifestyle, your energy usage is only equivalent to 250 units of food. The amount by which you are overeating is 250 units.
Let’s say that when you exercise, you use 4 times as much energy as when you’re being lazy or asleep. If you exercise for 1 hour a day, then that increases your daily energy usage from 250 to (250 - (250 / 24) + 4*(250 / 24) = ) 281.25. The amount by which you are overeating is 218.75.
Alternately, you cut back on your portion size by half, so that you are only eating 250 units of food a day, while still living an inactive lifestyle. You are no longer overeating.
Obviously, in the above case, exercise isn’t nearly as useful as cutting back on diet.
On the other hand, if you work on a farm, plowing, picking fruit, hacking down stalks, etc. then that’s equivalent to exercising for 10 hours a day. So your energy needs per day go up to (250 - 10*(250/24) + 410(250/24) = ) 562.5 units of food. In this case, you’d be losing weight if you retained you 500 food unit diet.
In this case, exercise is everything you need and more.
Assuming that you’re an average office drone, it’s more likely that you portion sizes are too large than that you need to exercise more. Exercise is good for your overall health, but when you’re sitting on your butt or asleep 23 hours of the day, it just doesn’t add up to very much.
Calorie guidelines are mostly useless. They’re probably based on your average 20 year old in the military, back in the 50s. Someone who isn’t doing a bunch of physical labor or who is less than 16 or older than 30 probably has widely different burn rates and a metabolism.
If you’re fighting a pooch, then adding an hour of exercise to your day may well be enough. If you’re overweight, you probably need to shrink your portion sizes. It doesn’t matter that you only eat 2000 calories a day. That’s clearly not how many calories per day your body burns.