# Beijing Makes Trump $1 Trillion Offer To Seal China Trade Deal; Dow Jones Rises **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 18, 2019, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003 "2019-01-18T20:34:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/1 "2019-01-18T20:34:37Z")
After putting the pressure on China about the trade deficit in the form of tariffs, instead of just talking about like past Presidents have, China’s economy tanked. Recently China has an offer to buy 1 trillion dollars of USA made goods over the next six years, which could bring the trade deficit down near even. While the details are fuzzy, if half of this comes true, what type of Credit should President Trump get? IMO, this could be his best achievement as President. > **[China offers 6-year import boost in trade talks with US: Sources](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/china-to-offer-path-to-eliminate-trade-imbalance-with-us-report.html)** > > China has offered a six-year boost in imports during its ongoing talks with the U.S., officials familiar with the matter told CNBC. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/2 "2019-01-18T20:39:07Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > IMO, this could be his best achievement as President. > > ] He better hurry. Clock is ticking. ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/3 "2019-01-18T20:42:54Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > He better hurry. Clock is ticking. I wasn’t talking about 2020, I meant to date. Trump’s USA negotiation tactics worked, and USA citizens and business will be better because of it. A trillion dollars is a lot of money. Do you think this impeding deal is his best results as President, leaving out of course two supreme court appointed justices, and tax cuts? I say yes. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/4 "2019-01-18T20:43:35Z")
I don’t understand why China wouldn’t just hope for Trump’s defeat in 2020 (presumably, whichever D or R replaces him would be more China-friendly than Trump) instead of potentially giving him six more years. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/5 "2019-01-18T20:45:14Z")
The Dow has been on a gradual climb since Jan. 3. Now you explain why it’s down 2500 in the past year. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/6 "2019-01-18T20:45:46Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > I wasn’t talking about 2020, … I doubt that Procrustus was, either. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/7 "2019-01-18T20:47:49Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > I wasn’t talking about 2020, I meant to date. Trump’s USA negotiation tactics worked, and USA citizens and business will be better because of it. A trillion dollars is a lot of money. > > Do you think this impeding deal is his best results as President, leaving out of course two supreme court appointed justices, and tax cuts? > > I say yes. I meant “his days are numbered” given the news of the last 24 hours. As for the actual trade deal, I don’t know enough to comment or care enough to learn. (although, of course, I’m skeptical) I do know that Trump could bring us a generation of peace and prosperity (hypothetically) and I would still regard him as a great embarrassment and deplorable human. He needs to go. ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/8 "2019-01-18T20:56:30Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > The Dow has been on a gradual climb since Jan. 3. Now you explain why it’s down 2500 in the past year. Coach, The Federal reserve board had interest rates at historic lows from March 2009 .15% to December 2015 .15% Lending out money at this rate for that many years was unprecedented. Since then the Federal Reserve rates have gone up significantly to 2.40 %. Increased rates combined with the uncertainty of the trade war with China made the market decline. I suspect the decline is temporary, and the Dow will increase significantly soon. The dow itself is up 1,762 points since Dec 21, 2018. It could reach an all time high sometime in 2019. > **[Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart](https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart)** > > Shows the daily level of the federal funds rate back to 1954. The fed funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight, on an uncollateralized... Do you think this is Trump’s best result or not? ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/9 "2019-01-18T20:57:53Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I meant “his days are numbered” given the news of the last 24 hours. > > As for the actual trade deal, I don’t know enough to comment or care enough to learn. (although, of course, I’m skeptical) > > I do know that Trump could bring us a generation of peace and prosperity (hypothetically) and I would still regard him as a great embarrassment and deplorable human. He needs to go. I must have missed the news. Why are Trump’s days numbered? What facts have come out? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/10 "2019-01-18T21:09:39Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > The dow itself is up 1,762 points since Dec 21, 2018. It could reach an all time high sometime in 2019. Thank you for providing this fantastic example of cherry picking a data point in order to make a series of numbers prove a point for you. How about if I posted the following: “The dow itself is down 1,200 points since Dec 3, 2018. It could dip to a year low sometime in 2019.” This statement is just as true as yours. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/11 "2019-01-18T21:09:40Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > Coach, > > The Federal reserve board had interest rates at historic lows from March 2009 .15% to December 2015 .15% Lending out money at this rate for that many years was unprecedented. > > \*\*Since then the Federal Reserve rates have gone up significantly to 2.40 %. \*\* Increased rates combined with the uncertainty of the trade war with China made the market decline. > > I suspect the decline is temporary, and the Dow will increase significantly soon. The dow itself is **up 1,762 points since Dec 21, 2018.** It could reach an all time high sometime in 2019. > > [Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends](https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart) > > Do you think this is Trump’s best result or not? The Dow continued to climb after Trump took office despite that, continuing the rise seen through Obama’s two terms. Explain why the Dow dropped so far that a 1700+ rise still leaves it 2500 down if Trump is such a fucking genius. Looks to me like the trade war the Orange Lummox started is the cause. He negotiates like a drunken amoeba. He can’t be trusted to keep his word. ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/12 "2019-01-18T21:16:14Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > The Dow continued to climb after Trump took office despite that, continuing the rise seen through Obama’s two terms. Explain why the Dow dropped so far that a 1700+ rise still leaves it 2500 down if Trump is such a fucking genius. > > Looks to me like the trade war the Orange Lummox started is the cause. He negotiates like a drunken amoeba. He can’t be trusted to keep his word. I already explained it. Interest rates went up and there was uncertainly with China on trade. I can see you don’t like the guy. Odd when the Dow was up some say Trump has nothing to do with it, but as soon as it dropped they jumped on him. Now its going back up again. If you have money to invest, now is a good time. Based on what China is willing to do, Trump did a good job. Just admit it, it won’t give you shin splints coach. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/13 "2019-01-18T21:18:58Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > I can see you don’t like the guy. Odd when the Dow was up some say Trump has nothing to do with it, but as soon as it dropped then jumped on him. Now its going back up again. You are doing the exact same thing but in the other direction. ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/14 "2019-01-18T21:19:36Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Thank you for providing this fantastic example of cherry picking a data point in order to make a series of numbers prove a point for you. > > How about if I posted the following: “The dow itself is down 1,200 points since Dec 3, 2018. It could dip to a year low sometime in 2019.” > > This statement is just as true as yours. Or if the interest rates were where Obama had them, there is no telling how high the Dow would be now. Trump did not get an 800 billion stimulus package, did he? Come back to this thread at the end of the year and we’ll see if Trump has it as a historic high. Your retort then will be what? I take it you don’t want to talk about unemployment. Why is it that some are anti Trump, even if what he does makes the USA economy better? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/15 "2019-01-18T21:19:48Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > What facts have come out? Pretty funny that you demand facts for all the corruption that surrounds Trump and his band of incompetent criminals; but you engage in rife speculation about what U.S.-China trade will be in six years. But, I will say that this could be on par with Trump’s success in saving those 1,100 jobs at that Carrier plant in Indiana. Do you agree? ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/16 "2019-01-18T21:19:48Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > While the details are fuzzy, if half of this comes true, what type of Credit should President Trump get? It would depend on the details which, as you say, are fuzzy. What exactly are they doing to try to increase import from the US? And in exchange for what? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/17 "2019-01-18T21:22:00Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > I already explained it. Interest rates went up and there was uncertainly with China on trade. > > I can see you don’t like the guy. Odd when the Dow was up some say Trump has nothing to do with it, but as soon as it dropped then jumped on him. Now its going back up again. > > If you have money to invest, now is a good time. Based on what China is willing to do, Trump did a good job. Just admit it, it won’t give you shin splints coach. Again, that is based on a promise that Trump has to keep. > [@](#): > > China pegged its proposal to buy more U.S. goods through 2024 to President Donald Trump’s hopes of being re-elected in 2020, the sources told CNBC. > [@](#): > > On Thursday the market jumped on a Wall Street Journal report that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had presented the idea of lowering U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. However, a Treasury Department spokesperson working with the U.S. trade negotiations teams told CNBC that “neither Secretary Mnuchin nor Ambassador Lighthizer have made any recommendations to anyone with respect to tariffs or other parts of the negotiation with China.” Too many ifs to declare with confidence what China is doing it or will. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/18 "2019-01-18T21:23:55Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > You are doing the exact same thing but in the other direction. As did Trump himself. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/19 "2019-01-18T21:25:21Z")
The actual source of the reporting from Bloomberg, which I’m unable to link to due to Bloomberg’s stupid single page app design, is, as you say, light on details. > [@](#): > > The offer, made during talks in Beijing earlier this month, was met with skepticism by U.S. negotiators who nonetheless asked the Chinese to do even better, demanding that the imbalance be cleared in the next two years, the people said. Economists who’ve studied the trade relationship argue it would be hard to eliminate the gap, which they say is sustained in large part by U.S. demand for Chinese products So it’s not clear how this would actually work, and it doesn’t seem like our negotiators are inclined to accept it anyway. It continues… > [@](#): > > It’s not the first time China has made an offer to reduce the deficit as a way of trying to break the deadlock between the sides which has darkened the global economic outlook and roiled financial markets since last year. In May, Trump scrapped a framework for a deal negotiated by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that would have seen China “significantly” increase purchases of U.S. goods. > [@](#): > > There’s no clear sign that such an offer would now have a greater chance of success or even if it’s practically feasible. > > … > > The offer implies raising the annual import total from $155 billion to around $200 billion in 2019 and in increasing steps thereafter, reaching an annual total of about $600 billion by 2024, one of the people said. It’s not clear to me how China intends to increase imports as much as they’re supposedly promising by 2024, which (as I understand it) are going to be driven by consumer demand. And since the bulk of this $1T increase won’t happen until the end of this 6 year period, it makes sense why Trump might not be too keen on it. In short, let’s not start counting our chickens just yet. Trump has done some major damage to the US economy with this stupid trade war, at this point it seems unlikely that any future trade deal could be sufficiently lopsided in our direction to make up for it. But we’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003/20 "2019-01-18T21:25:21Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Pretty funny that you demand facts for all the corruption that surrounds Trump and his band of incompetent criminals; but you engage in rife speculation about what U.S.-China trade will be in six years. > > But, I will say that this could be on par with Trump’s success in saving those 1,100 jobs at that Carrier plant in Indiana. Do you agree? More coal mines have closed in Trump’s two years than closed in Obama’s last four. MANGA! (Make America Natural Gas Again!) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/beijing-makes-trump-1-trillion-offer-to-seal-china-trade-deal-dow-jones-rises/828003.md?page=2)