Feel free to go hunting. I don’t see it:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/china-us
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/money
Here’s the most recent (11 day old) relevant article that I see:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201901/10/WS5c3696a9a3106c65c34e394f.html
Multiple sources don’t mean anything if they’re not independent sources.
Absolutely. China can absorb way, WAY more economic hardship than the US. I would even go so far as to say that in the event of a tremendous trade war and depression, China could withstand several million people dying of starvation. On the other hand, there would be riots in the streets of the USA if gas prices rose by $1/gallon. Hell, there would be riots if Netflix went off.
The Trade War is not pleasant for China. But at the same time, Trump has done a wide number of things that make the US weaker and less competitive globally. That gives China a lot of room to expand their influence and control while the Trade War continues. Outside of the temporary suffering, there is more long-term upside to the Trade War than downside, and they can reasonably assume that Trump’s successor will largely let the Trade War fall away and be swept under the rug as a moment of temporary insanity. There’s no real advantage to them to end the war, until and unless it looks like Trump’s successor will continue it and continue it in a way that’s not stupid.
For the moment, it’s entirely to the Chinese advantage to play Trump for a fool and drag the negotiations out. If he wants to release information about the negotiations - false or true - they will not care one jot. They’re not actually in it to negotiate. They just want the tariffs to stay at whatever level they’re at or maybe go down in expectation of “further negotiations to fully resolve the issue”.
My guess would be that the details of the release are based on a mix between what the Chinese have actually offered and some things that will make Trump happy. This is a leak by Trump’s employees, and he’ll read the article, believing that its a real report of what the current Chinese offer is, and reading through it he will want to think that he’s “winning”, so his employees will sweeten up the Chinese offer just a little to make him feel like they’re doing a good job gaining concessions from the Chinese.
But I mean, at all points in time, there has probably been some form of Chinese offer on the table. We all have been negotiating. At any point in the last year you could say, “Hey look, we’ve got an offer by China to get out of the Trade War.” And you could show what the details of that look like. And it will read as though we’re nearing the end because that’s what people think when they’re told, “We’ve been given an offer and we’re just nailing out the details.”
But are they actually near the end? Is that actually the real offer, 100%?
I don’t see the advantage to the Chinese. Xinping is not stupid. It’s all win to him to make the negotiations go long.
I haven’t seen any from the ‘official’ (i.e. state run) media, no. I also haven’t seen anything saying essentially ‘WTF is Trump talking about? We didn’t say anything of the sort!’ from either state run media or the official CCP releases. I seriously doubt they would let it slide if they really, truly hadn’t broached the subject at all and repudiate the very idea. To me, the lack of state run media reporting on this is more an internal thing…they basically don’t want their own people thinking the CCP is caving to pressure, or whatever, so as long as there is no official position from them (as they are basically just a mouthpiece for the CCP and everyone knows that) then it’s fine. They can always report it if/when Trump et al give their take on it officially.
YMMV, and perhaps you think that Trump has them so cowed that they wouldn’t dare contradict him on something like this(?)…
Then you don’t know that much about China or where it’s at economically, is all I can say. Or what effect this has had…namely, several large manufacturing companies (not all American) have either made plans to leave China or are making plans to leave, as well as a stalling of their local companies due to the tariffs. Not back to the US, of course, but to other countries in Asia or India. This is at a time when China is particularly vulnerable, since they have their over headed real estate bubble and their over heated stock market bubble, a downturn in their economy, rising unemployment and a lot of countries starting to look on them warily wrt their belt and road program and their predatory lending practices. Most of their neighbors look on China EXTREMELY warily, and several have approached the US or other nations looking for things like capital/loans as well as military alliances. And to understand why Xi can’t just do whatever he likes and ignore public opinion with a sinking economy you have to look at the sub-text of the unspoken bargain the CCP has with the people, which is ever increasing and expanding economic growth. If that doesn’t happen, or is seriously threatened the CCP is in serious trouble…and it’s not happening, especially now. So, China and XI (or more importantly the CCP) is in a very precarious situation right now…much more than the US is. After all, what are our unemployment numbers again? The fundamentals of our economy are still strong, despite the orange idiot in charge…while China’s aren’t. Simple as that.
Well, you may be right. Those are all decent points. I don’t find them convincing - my understanding is that the Chinese President is strongly empowered to think in the long term - but I could well be wrong about the China side of the equation.
But on the US side, I think that my central point that we can’t trust positive leaks from this Adminstration is true. They might be factual, but it’s not a thing I would entrust my life savings to.
I wouldn’t trust anything coming from the Trump white house as far as I could throw a horse. If this was only them claiming it I certainly wouldn’t trust it…not until I saw the Chinese reaction at least. However, China has had plenty of time to repudiate the assertion if it was just Trump blowing smoke…which they haven’t. They haven’t even lightly denied it or said they were considering what Trump had said before formulating an official position. In addition, there are good, solid reasons for China to make such an offer as an opening position to try and get movement on the trade war, so it’s not exactly coming (to me anyway) out of left field. I actually expected something like this, IF the CCP were starting to be concerned enough to counter how this makes them look weak anyway. I didn’t think they were there yet (though they should be), to be honest, but I’m not surprised. I do think that they think it’s necessary…and I think that if they get Trump to move based on this it will be cheap at the price (since, you know, they are talking about buying actual stuff from us for that trillion, not giving it to us as a gift). Especially if Trump et al give them other concessions or don’t follow up on the real ones we should be demanding in exchange for any dropping of the tariffs.
I suppose time will tell. I’ll be shocked if Xi or the CCP or Chinese state run media repudiates the asserted offer, since to me it looks like it’s not something Trump is just making up and asserting out of his ass. That said, I agree with you…trust nothing this administration ever says or does without confirmation.
Why would they? It’s anonymous gossip by some foreign newspaper. It’s not the Trump Administration making an official, open declaration about what China is or is not doing. And, if they speak out against it, everyone will interpret their repudiation as an act of hostility against the Administration, which might make Trump raise tariffs on them again.
And, ultimately, the negotiations are secret. They’re liable to neither confirm nor deny anything in any of it.
Sure, as said, they have probably had an offer of some form on the table all of the way since the beginning. Their very first meeting, they probably had some form of proposal. That’s how negotiations work.
That doesn’t mean that this is the offer or the accurate presentation of the offer.
All I can say is it makes no sense for the CCP to stay silent if they really made no such offer and would not hesitate to call Trump out on it if he’s lying. I guess we shall see, but it seems rather a stretch to think this is all manufactured by Trump and the Chinese are playing along because…reasons.
Hell, I hope it IS a load of horseshit that Trump made up. Not only will that further weaken Trump but it will take one of my worst fears out of play, which is that Trump will go for the first shinny thing he sees and leap at the chance, and not pursue the real issues and force the Chinese to start complying. So, I hope you are right…but I’m pretty sure you aren’t.
It’s also in keeping withstatements made after the G20 agreement to suspend increases in the tariffs for 90 days. That was explicitly from the White House but the Chinese didn’t and haven’t disputed the post-G20 statements.
It’s not like China hasn’t had an opportunity to respond if the US was misrepresenting the tenor of the discussions. It’s not even a matter of just ignoring leaks. The administration was owning the earlier statements. The recent leak sounds more like it’s fleshing in that general framework in advance of the meeting later this month thann anything new and major.
Seems like Trump doesn’t think this is a good offer:
Personally, I can’t square “this is Trump’s best achievement” with “Trump says China is playing around.” I bet you will, however.
Couldn’t you interpret that as “this deal is finally China stopping playing around”?
Mind you, I’m pretty sure that Trump first learned of this “deal” from Fox reporting the “leak” that China had told Trump this, instead of from, you know, actual Chinese officials.
Dow down 180 points today. By the logic of the OP, I guess that is somehow Trump’s fault?
You forget, even the shit he fucks up is never Trump’s fault.
And the MAGAts don’t have a problem with that.
I cannot. I just can’t see reading that tweet as anything but complaining about China not making a good offer. Because the context outside the tweet involves reports like this:
In other words, if this reporting is correct, the promise to buy more American goods is nothing more than a Plan B… but I’m not clear on what these deep structural changes are being sought by Trump.
Then again, I’m sure Trump doesn’t get it either, so I feel fully informed.
My post 51 link about the post G20 statement had a list of structural changes the US has been seeking - “structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft.”
I think you are misinterpreting your cite, especially if we look at within the context of previous public statements. The purchases aren’t really plan B, IMO. The G20 talks seemed to involve a mix of both structural changes and one time purchases. China seems to be leaning towards larger purchases while minimizing change in the overall structure that’s been to their advantage. The US has been focusing more on structural changes that reduce the long term lack of fairness in the relationship. I wouldn’t call compromise between initial positions Plan B. I’d call it negotiating. Unless one side is in a wildly disadvantageous position or just plain stupid negotiations don’t tend to give one side everything it ask for in it’s initial position.
Hmm, let me look over your post…
[I get a Diet Coke]
[I look out the window]
[I stare at… something]
[I walk out of the room]
[I turn on the TV]
Thanks for the explanation. I think I’ve got it from here. 
I mistakenly thought you were addressing things from a fighting ignorance perspective about the actual negotiations. Clearly a wrong assumption.
I added the smiley to indicate the presence of humor. Next time I’ll use size 7 font.
(I was employing humor right there.)