# Ben Roethlisberger- the new Tom Brady or new Kurt Warner?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797>\
**Category:** Cafe Society\
**Created:** [October 9, 2006, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797 "2006-10-09T13:32:15Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 18\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/1 "2006-10-09T13:32:15Z")

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In other words, will he have a career more like Brady- early Super Bowl win, then consistent stellar play with continued playoff success, or like Warner, two good early years followed by a decade of subpar performances. I’m leaning towards the latter right now. And has Ben, in his short career, reached the status of unbenchable, and should he be?

On a similar note, I know quality backups are hard to find, but why would the Cowboys go into the year with the unproven Tony Romo the #1 backup to the long past his prime Drew Bledsoe? God that was embarassing- he actually deserved Owens’ insults.

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**Author:** ![The\_Golden\_Ass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5fc32e/32.png) [@The\_Golden\_Ass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Golden_Ass)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/2 "2006-10-09T13:37:28Z")

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I think it’s too early to decide re: Big Ben. Maybe he’ll pull his shit together this season. Or maybe he got one good year, and that’s the end of that. I would be sad if he went the Warner-route though, and I’m not even a Steelers fan.

Re: Bledsoe, no kidding. I was watching the game with my husband, and he was all excited because it looked like the Cowboys had a chance to score. I said, “No, don’t worry. He’ll throw an interception.” And then he did about five seconds later. Am I psychic? No. I just know that Bledsoe will always throw an interception when the game is on the line. :rolleyes:

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**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/3 "2006-10-09T14:08:17Z")

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And what about those lame asses Aikman & Buck trying to defend Bledsoe’s interception where he underthrew Owens by about five yards by saying Owens must have ran the wrong route, or somehow blaming Owens for a woefully underthrown ball, and Aikman kept going on and on defending Bledsoe? That was not the type play where you throw to spot, assholes, he saw Owens break and threw it poorly, admit it.

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**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/4 "2006-10-09T14:19:02Z")

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Bear something in mind: Roethlisberger is only a 3rd year man! Most 3rd year quarterbacks are either struggling or just starting to show signs of greatness. It’s really unfair to jusge Ben more harshly than, say, Philip Rivers or Eli Manning.

Ben was good, but also VERY lucky, just as Dan Marino was, to end up with a tream that was already a championship contender before his arrival. It’s impressive that he was almost undefeated as a rookie, but the fact is, the Steelers didn’t rely upon him to win games in his rookie year. The Steelers had him hand the ball off a lot, and had him make afe passes to a corps of veteran, quality receivers. But in the playoffs, when the team HAD to rely on him, he performed poorly (as almost any rookie would).

He made huge strides in last year’s playoffs, of course. I never expected the Steelers to have him come out throwing against the Colts (Tony Dungy clearly never expected it, either, and didn’t prepare for it)… but he did, and it worked.

And now? Well, the Steelersd aren’t nearly as good as they were last year, so they’re going to have to rely on Ben a LOT more than in the past. In the past, Cowher could tell Ben, “We’ve got a great team- so let them do their jobs, and just don’t make mistakes. You don’t have to win games for us, just don’t lose them.”

Henceforth, Ben will have to win games, not just refrain from blowing them. THAT’S how we’ll find out if he’s genuinely great or just a flash in the pan.

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**Author:** ![jimmmy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/73ab20/32.png) [@jimmmy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jimmmy)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/5 "2006-10-09T14:40:31Z")

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I agree with the give him time/its too early.

One thing that is different than Warner - Warner was 28 in his break out season and had played for 2 NFL Teams , in Europe and in the Arena League.

Ben R was 22 then and is 24 now. He will be the same age Warner was in his break-out season in the 2010 season. Eli, Phil Rivers, J.P. Losman, [who currently lead him in QB ratings] Matt Shaub, Luke McNown, Andy Hall are his peers.

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**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/6 "2006-10-09T15:04:03Z")

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[QUOTE=Wee Bairn]  
In other words, will he have a career more like Brady- early Super Bowl win, then consistent stellar play with continued playoff success, or like Warner, two good early years followed by a decade of subpar performances. I’m leaning towards the latter right now.  
[/quote]

It’s way too early to judge. And let’s not forget that Brady’s Patriots missed the playoffs in 2002-03 after winning the Super Bowl for the first time. Roethlisberger may not be physically and mentally healthy, or this may just be a down year. Brady was still good in that ‘off’ year, but if the Steelers get going they could end up 9-7 too.

> [@](#):
>
> And has Ben, in his short career, reached the status of unbenchable, and should he be?

Yes and yes. They’re playing pretty badly and so is he, but they could damage him for the long term by benching him. Maybe this year is a lost cause, and he started too late after the motorcycle accident and the appendix surgery. He’s their quarterback now and he’d have to do a lot more to make them change their plan, which would have him at QB for another 10 years or whatever.

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**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/7 "2006-10-09T15:05:25Z")

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:smack: By “should he be,” I thought you were asking if Roethlisberger should be unbenchable. You were probably asking if he should be Big Benched. I say they shouldn’t bench him.

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**Author:** ![phungi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/phungi/32/395_2.png) [@phungi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phungi)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/8 "2006-10-09T16:19:58Z")

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I think Marley23 nailed it: Ben essentially had no off-season preparation, and is just getting into shape and getting his timing back. He smashed up his face and then had mid-torso surgery. Not the best way to prepare for a job that requires timing, agility, and strength.

Re: Bledsoe, I am an Iggles fan (born/raised) and thought that was the worst game I ever saw Bledsoe play. Sure, he was under an intense rush most of the day, but on that last pass, he had all the time in the world, and even if Witten had cut right instead of left, Sheppard was standing right there for the pick. Ad for Owens, he is a cancer to a team and I can’t wait to watch the Cowboys deal with his escalating antics.

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**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\
**Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/9 "2006-10-09T16:30:07Z")

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In the past, I always liked Bledsoe, and ordinarily, I’m not one to call for a new quaterback every time a team goes into a slump.

However… the only argument for playing Bledsoe rather than Romo is that Bledsoe is a veteran and supposedly less likely to make dumb mistakes.

Well, it’s hard to imagine Tony Romo throwing more dumb interceptions than Bledsoe has been making lately. If you can’t count on solid, mistake-free play from your veteran QB, there’s absolutely no reason top leave a promising younger guy on the bench. Romo may well screw up just as badly as Bledoe, but the difference is, with a little exprience under his belt, Romo is liable to improve. With Bledsoe… sadly, this may be as good as it gets.

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**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\
**Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/10 "2006-10-11T14:53:29Z")

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Bledsoe was atrocious. He can be counted on to throw a pic at the worst possible time. Saw it from years in New England. As as a Cowboy fan of long standing (a very low membership card number) I really believe that they are a pretty good but not necessarily great quarterback, think Brad Johnson, away from being a threat to win it all. Great defense, good running game, pretty good kicking game. But no one wants to win more than the Jerry Jones. And this is Bill’s last year as a head coach in his life. They are both smart guys, who see Romo and Bledsoe every day throw footballs. If they thought Romo was better, he’d be playing. 1,000% guaranteed. So Drew is the best they have, and he can’t get the job done.

R,

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**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\
**Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/11 "2006-10-11T15:12:26Z")

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**spifflog** - my thoughts exactly. Put _any_ decent quarterback who doesn’t make the big mistake ala Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, hell even Mark Brunell and the Cowboys would be challenging the Bears for the NFC title. Why you would build a Super Bowl type team around Bledsoe, without a decent backup, was a not so smart move. They still have time though, to get a decent QB though if they want to salvage the season.

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/12 "2006-10-11T20:24:28Z")

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I’ve argued in the past that rate stats are the be all end all of judging a passer, while others have argued that Ben’s early stats were somehow inflated by not having to throw very often.

Currently, they appear to have been more correct than me. Ben’s career numbers based grouped by number of attempts per game:

```auto

Attempts Gm Cmp Att Yrds TD In Rating
<20 10 107 164 1706 13 8 105.89
20-24 12 159 258 2234 15 10 92.75
25-29 7 123 187 1532 10 4 99.94
30-34 4 72 123 719 3 7 59.64
35-39 1 18 39 208 0 3 30.72
40+ 1 29 41 386 3 3 94.16

```

20+ attempts: 401 of 648 (62%) for 5079 yards, 31 TDs 27 Ints. Rating: 84.90  
25+ attempts: 242 of 390 (62%) for 2845 yards, 16 TDs 17 Ints. Rating: 79.70  
30+ attempts: 119 of 203 (59%) for 1313 yards, 6 TDs 13 Ints. Rating: 61.05

It would appear that the more he throws, the worse he gets.

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**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\
**Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/13 "2006-10-11T20:48:27Z")

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To me, Ben did last year what Steve McNair is doing this year- poor stats on a good team, which makes it look like the team is winning because of his play, when in reality, all they are doing is not crashing the car. An average game for Ben in the Super Bowl year was something like 14-23, 176 yards 2 td’s, zero picks- not great stats, but since they won the big one, it didn’t matter.

I am actually shocked that people who are paid NFL commentators are raving about the job McNair was doing with the 4-0 (now 4-1, soon to be 9-7) Ravens- what is Micheal Irvin smoking, specifically, when he says they are the best team in the NFL? McNair leads two comenacks in a row, sure, but with the defenses doing the stupidest thing of all time, playing prevent defense. And if he had played decently in those games, they wouldn’t have needed the friggin comebacks! Average stats and a piss poor QB rating wouldn’t matter if they win it all, but they won’t, the Ravens won’t be able to hold everybody to 10 points, and McNair, once very very good, will be shown to be no better than Kyle Boller and all the other sorry QB’s they have had since day one.

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**Author:** ![brianjedi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3be4f8/32.png) [@brianjedi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brianjedi)\
**Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/14 "2006-10-11T20:51:14Z")

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[QUOTE=Wee Bairn]

I am actually shocked that people who are paid NFL commentators are raving about the job McNair was doing with the 4-0 (now 4-1, soon to be 9-7) Ravens- what is Micheal Irvin smoking, specifically, when he says they are the best team in the NFL?  
[/QUOTE]

Crack.

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**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2006, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/15 "2006-10-13T04:38:05Z")

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[QUOTE=Ellis Dee]  
I’ve argued in the past that rate stats are the be all end all of judging a passer, while others have argued that Ben’s early stats were somehow inflated by not having to throw very often.

Currently, they appear to have been more correct than me. Ben’s career numbers based grouped by number of attempts per game:

```auto

Attempts Gm Cmp Att Yrds TD In Rating
<20 10 107 164 1706 13 8 105.89
20-24 12 159 258 2234 15 10 92.75
25-29 7 123 187 1532 10 4 99.94
30-34 4 72 123 719 3 7 59.64
35-39 1 18 39 208 0 3 30.72
40+ 1 29 41 386 3 3 94.16

```

20+ attempts: 401 of 648 (62%) for 5079 yards, 31 TDs 27 Ints. Rating: 84.90  
25+ attempts: 242 of 390 (62%) for 2845 yards, 16 TDs 17 Ints. Rating: 79.70  
30+ attempts: 119 of 203 (59%) for 1313 yards, 6 TDs 13 Ints. Rating: 61.05

It would appear that the more he throws, the worse he gets.  
[/QUOTE]

Well, in fairness, ANY time you see that ANY quarterback threw 35 or more times, it probably means his team lost.

But what it USUALLY means is that the team has fallen way behind, and they HAVE to pass a lot more than they’d like to.

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2006, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/16 "2006-10-13T07:36:36Z")

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[QUOTE=astorian]  
Well, in fairness, ANY time you see that ANY quarterback threw 35 or more times, it probably means his team lost.

But what it USUALLY means is that the team has fallen way behind, and they HAVE to pass a lot more than they’d like to.  
[/QUOTE]  
Increased attempts doesn’t seem to effect Eli, who is often compared (unfavorably) to Roethlisberger:

```auto

Attempts Gm Cmp Att Yrds TD In Rating
<20 3 17 45 206 0 5 13.06
20-24 5 57 115 871 6 5 74.22
25-29 4 61 107 690 7 2 90.48
30-34 6 102 194 1238 6 5 72.06
35-39 4 79 145 934 8 6 75.47
40-44 5 129 211 1493 9 6 84.88
45+ 2 52 101 635 3 5 60.46

```

20+ attempts: 480 of 873 (55%) for 5861 yards, 39 TDs 29 Ints. Rating: 76.93  
25+ attempts: 423 of 758 (56%) for 4990 yards, 33 TDs 24 Ints. Rating: 77.34  
30+ attempts: 362 of 651 (56%) for 4300 yards, 26 TDs 22 Ints. Rating: 75.18  
35+ attempts: 260 of 457 (57%) for 3062 yards, 20 TDs 17 Ints. Rating: 76.50  
40+ attempts: 181 of 312 (58%) for 2128 yards, 12 TDs 11 Ints. Rating: 76.98

Eli seems to be exactly the same guy no matter how many times he passes.[sup]1[/sup] He seems to be the poster child for my contention that rate stats are the ultimate description of a passer. Also, when you say that passing 35+ times a game may be indicative of a blowout, I would counter that a blowout is when the passer is more likely to see softer, more conservative defenses. Or even the infamous prevent defense.

Of course, Eli seems to play best when he’s down by multiple touchdowns in the fourth quarter, so maybe he’s the outlier and Ben is the normal case. I tend to doubt that, though. I think Ben genuinely is not a pure passer; he’s simply not the kind of guy who can put a team on his shoulders. He looks to me like more of a system guy, where if he can’t hand off 12 times in a row to set up a play action bomb, he struggles.

[sup]1[/sup]The three games where Eli threw fewer than 20 attempts were his first ever start against the Eagles, his 5th start against the Ravens and the playoff debacle against the Panthers. I attribute his pathetic 13.06 rating in those three games to “deer in the headlights” syndrome against stellar defenses.

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2006, 8:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/17 "2006-10-13T08:44:55Z")

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Because I’m curious by nature, and also because I already happen to have the entire [pro-football-reference](http://www.pro-football-reference.com/) database ported into Access, I ran a quick breakdown on the entire database. It includes the stats for 7,245 individual games. So here’s the definitive answer to the question of how the passer rating is affected by number of attempts:

```auto

Attempts Games Complete Attempts Yards TDs Ints Rating
<20 1,730 8,826 15,602 57% 100,418 2,187 704 103.97
20-24 870 11,385 19,351 59% 140,433 937 622 84.10
25-29 1,310 20,876 35,474 59% 247,273 1,600 1,072 82.61
30-34 1,331 25,109 42,581 59% 293,336 1,748 1,241 81.47
35-39 985 21,271 36,264 59% 242,082 1,360 1,122 78.39
40-44 598 14,480 24,983 58% 162,906 861 815 75.45
45-49 266 7,282 12,395 59% 80,898 425 399 76.25
50+ 155 4,826 8,319 58% 52,664 259 274 73.46

All 7,245 114,055 194,969 58% 1,320,010 9,377 6,249 81.72
20+ 5,515 105,229 179,367 59% 1,219,592 7,190 5,545 79.78
25+ 4,645 93,844 160,016 59% 1,079,159 6,253 4,923 79.26
30+ 3,335 72,968 124,542 59% 831,886 4,653 3,851 78.31
35+ 2,004 47,859 81,961 58% 538,550 2,905 2,610 76.67
40+ 1,019 26,588 45,697 58% 296,468 1,545 1,488 75.30
50+ 421 12,108 20,714 58% 133,562 684 673 75.13

```

It does appear that the more one throws, the lower the passer rating will be.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2006, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ben-roethlisberger-the-new-tom-brady-or-new-kurt-warner/375797/18 "2006-10-13T16:02:46Z")

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[QUOTE=Ellis Dee]  
Also, when you say that passing 35+ times a game may be indicative of a blowout, I would counter that a blowout is when the passer is more likely to see softer, more conservative defenses. Or even the infamous prevent defense.  
[/QUOTE]

What he said is actually not only true in blowout losses; it seems to me that it should also be true in fairly close losses where you wouldn’t see a prevent defense. I think that would definitely damage a passer rating. Manning is considered a great late-game QB, and his stats only stay the same. I think that accounts for the stats in your most recent post.