# Bernie Supporters: what result by 3/1 would convince you it is over? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 25, 2016, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092 "2016-02-25T14:29:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/41 "2016-02-25T23:12:49Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > I’m not a Sanders supporter, but I’d think he’d need 4 or 5 wins to stay viable, 3 is arguable, but 1 or 2 and his winning the nomination becomes pretty unrealistic. Not all states get the same number of delegates so it’s simplistic to the point of useless to guess how many states either has to win. Heavy Clinton states Georgia and Texas combined have over 300 delegates. Sanders favoured states Vermont and Colorado have less than 100. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/42 "2016-02-25T23:17:06Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > And again, I can’t help remembering Hillary herself stayed in long past the point of mathematical impossibility in 2008. Obama clinched on June 3rd. Clinton conceded on June 7th. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/43 "2016-02-25T23:20:16Z")
> [@OffByOne](#): > > “… who the republicans throw up.” > > Is that a prediction? The GOP has long since passed the point where revelations of cannibalism would be worth anything more than a yawn. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/44 "2016-02-25T23:20:22Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > they could well nominate Biden and probably should. When was anyone ever nominated that wasn’t on the initial ballot? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/45 "2016-02-25T23:21:10Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > If Hillary gets indicted For what? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/46 "2016-02-25T23:24:55Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > When was anyone ever nominated that wasn’t on the initial ballot? He could still get on the initial ballot. Say Hillary has 75% of the delegates to Sanders’ 25%. She dies, her delegates get together to put Biden on the convention ballot. Could happen, I think. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/47 "2016-02-25T23:30:33Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Obama clinched on June 3rd. Clinton conceded on June 7th. Exactly, and there were lingering reasons too–her delegate count was very close, there were many unpledged superdelegates who had yet to express their preference (it was clinched when Obama received a large number on the same day in June), and there was ongoing debate about the seating of Florida and Michigan delegates. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/48 "2016-02-25T23:34:04Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Not all states get the same number of delegates so it’s simplistic to the point of useless to guess how many states either has to win. Heavy Clinton states Georgia and Texas combined have about 300 delegates. Sanders favoured states Vermont and Colorado have about 80. It’s simplistic but not so simplistic as to be useless. The state outcomes are likely highly correlated. If Sanders ekes out a win in Oklahoma the margins in all those southern states he loses are likely to be much better than polling indicated. The end result being a great day for Bernie and a great position in the delegate race going forward. Conversely, if he loses Colorado, he most likely gets pretty crushed everywhere else and Clinton has a very durable delegate lead that will be very difficult for Sanders to overcome. The most likely result is somewhere between those extremes. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/49 "2016-02-25T23:36:16Z")
Correction… … he most likely gets pretty crushed everywhere else [Except Vermont]… ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/50 "2016-02-25T23:38:26Z")
You know what, I finally found one on my own. Pierce was added to the 39th ballot in the 1852 national convention. So now I believe it’s possible, unless someone shows me a rule change has occurred since. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/51 "2016-02-25T23:46:46Z")
Let me put it it a different way. It’s not that he needs to win 5 states to have a great day, it’s that if he has a great day he will win five states. On the flip side, if he has a horrible day he’ll only win Vermont. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/52 "2016-02-26T00:01:51Z")
Well he could call it a victory, works for Rubio. I am just saying that if he crushes Hillary in Vermont and Colorado but she crushes him in Texas and Georgia then winning 3 or 4 other states by \<10% will still leave him in a bad spot. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/53 "2016-02-26T01:24:57Z")
That _what_ is over? His chances of winning the nomination? Those were never all that great to begin with. That’s not why I’m supporting him. Well, yes, I would like it, but it’s definitely in “stretch goal” territory. But his opportunity to pull the Overton window leftwards? No, that won’t be over with any realistically possible Super Tuesday result. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/54 "2016-02-26T03:03:31Z")
Seems to me that he should hang in as long as he’s doing as well as Clinton did against Obama. Currently, Clinton’s lead in delegates she actually earned in voting is very slight. We’re nowhere near talking about a decided race. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/55 "2016-02-26T03:19:50Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Obama clinched on June 3rd. Clinton conceded on June 7th. Ok, so Clinton only hung on four days past the point of numerical impossibility. It’s still a failure to face reality on her part. People were calling it for Obama long before that. It was, for example, a good month past the point that Obama had won over the superdelegate votes, as Nate Silver pointed out a few weeks ago. Linkage to Silver article about how superdelegate may not save her this time, either: > **[Superdelegates Might Not Save Hillary Clinton](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/superdelegates-might-not-save-hillary-clinton/)** > > If you look at a Democratic delegate tracker like this one from The New York Times, you’ll find that Hillary Clinton has a massive 394-44 delegate lead over Ber… My point is true: last time, Hillary held on well past the point that it was actually over. No one this time is obligated to make things easy for her, this time. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/56 "2016-02-26T03:59:18Z")
Who the heck is saying Sanders is obligated to step down at any point? ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/57 "2016-02-26T04:57:39Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > That _what_ is over? His chances of winning the nomination? Those were never all that great to begin with. That’s not why I’m supporting him. Well, yes, I would like it, but it’s definitely in “stretch goal” territory. But his opportunity to pull the Overton window leftwards? No, that won’t be over with any realistically possible Super Tuesday result. I’m not sure he’s moving the window leftward. He’s widening the window leftward, at the same time Trump has something like 75% of his party agreeing with the concept of banning Muslims from the United States and bringing back waterboarding “or worse” to deal with suspected terrorists. So the window is widening right too. It’d be nice to imagine the whole thing is shifting left, but this campaign has made far left and far right ideas more mainstream, to the detriment of the country as a whole. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/58 "2016-02-26T05:10:04Z")
No one is asking anyone to make anything easy for her. The thread is not about him dropping out. Not sure how I can say that more plainly that I have. It’s about the process of getting to the majority (2026) of pledged delegates (ignoring superdelegates completely). About when there is no longer a realistic path from here to there. With “there” being winning the nomination, not moving the Overton window. Please note that in 2008 Clinton and Obama were going neck and neck for a long time. On Super Tuesday (it was 2/5/08) Obama won 13 contests to Clinton’s 9 and the pledged delegate count stood at 1036 Obama to 1056 Clinton. By March 11 it stood 1533.5 Obama to 1427.5 Then it was a lull period and most were declaring the race essentially over even though Clinton did slog on, partly in hopes that somehow the Michigan and Florida races could be made to count somehow (remember all that controversy?) From his and his supporters’ POV _if only_ does as well on this Super Tuesday as she did then. I appreciate that some of supporters never thought he had a realistic chance and were more about “moving the Overton window.” Still, for this race the questions become: Without meaningful wins when does he run out of the funds to run? What sort of performance does he need to post in order to prove that is possible for him to perform well enough elsewhere to make up an early deficit? What sort of performance proves he won’t? How big of a deficit can he overcome? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/59 "2016-02-26T06:54:04Z")
Count me in among those who don’t understand the motivation of the OP. > [@DSeid](#): > > To me the question of when there is no realistic chance of a win inherently matters. I admire those who stay in their seats until the final buzzer goes off, rather than get a head start in the parking lot, but I still wonder at what point they accept that the game is really already over, and how long they stay in denial. Poor analogy. Or maybe a good one! Perhaps the folks are staying in their seats because they are betting on one team _and they care about the point spread_. Unlikely? Maybe, but in politics the point spread matters. If Bernie attains 40% of the vote, that would show significant (though not majority) support for hard-left policies (soft-left in a European context). > [@](#): > > Or to make a different, less flattering, sort of analogy, sure some in chess will insist on playing out all the moves when it is clearly checkmate in 5… ## Bernie is in it to build a movement whether he wins the Presidency or not. It’s not an ego thing. I can imagine the OP asking about the point where Sanders can stick a fork in his Presidential ambitions. But Sanders supporters have no special insight on that. So I think the OP inappropriately conflates a few issues. Back to what I _hope_ is topical (though I’m honestly not sure). If you want to know about Bernie’s chances, look at the margins of victory or defeat relative to what he would win if he was tied in the polls with Hillary. For example, if he was tied in the polls (and therefore had a chance of victory) he would lose South Carolina by 20 points. So if he loses it by 15 points, Hillary has something to worry about. For other states, visit 538. Oh and keep an eye on Oklahoma. [Bernie Sanders Doesn’t Need Momentum — He Needs To Win These States | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/) ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 8:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092/60 "2016-02-26T08:35:46Z")
I suppose it’s over when one of them drops dead, resigns, is indicted, or has a majority of possible delegates. Do you call a football game at halftime? She wants the job, she has to fight for it. She’s a fighter, right? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bernie-supporters-what-result-by-3-1-would-convince-you-it-is-over/747092.md?page=4)