My original interest is naval history, got into an interest in air war history in part because you can’t separate the two when it comes to WWII.
I have a feeling your follow up will follow the logic of your first post, which again I don’t disagree with in forming the basic strategic setting of the opening phase of the Pacific War. The Allies didn’t have a fleet ready to fight a decisive fleet action with the Japanese to prevent their early conquests. This meant the Philippines in particular were doomed, since the Japanese could cut off resupply with a distant blockade regardless of the local air situation. And even without Pearl Harbor it’s questionable the USN would have immediately deployed for decisive fleet action in the western Pacific in time to relieve the PI, or that it would have been wise to try. Anyway the PH attack happened.
But within that basic setting, the Japanese advance would have much slower and therefore riskier if either a) they’d have had to limit the steps in their advance to the range at which ‘normal’ land based fighters could cover landing forces, or b) they’d have had to commit their main carrier force to directly support each landing.
You don’t have to look to special cites to establish either of those points, but a general knowledge of the early campaigns you already have. Start with the quick neutralization of USAAF power on Luzon from Formosa: a function of escorted raids by Japanese bombers way outside the range of any other fighter but the Zero. Without that again the US position in the PI would have been strangled over a longer time. And the follow on moves to southern PI and DEI while they were accomplished months before the Philippine/US land force finally surrendered in April/May 1942, could not have been as long as the USAAF force in Luzon was intact.
Then the move from southern PI to DEI, again a single step with fighter cover at range no other land based fighter could achieve.
If the Japanese hadn’t had a fighter of such range, they could have used carriers. In fact they planned to support the PI operation with light carriers, at least the fighters landing on them to refuel after staging from the land bases in Formosa. That idea was only changed some weeks before the actual operation. But it would have been riskier. Likewise the main carrier force or mobile force was mainly inactive and not at risk from the Hawaii operation to the Ceylon raid in April 1942, exceptions being portions of it supporting the Wake and Rabaul landings and the whole formation in the February Darwin raid. But all raids and invasions against token defensive forces, not the carriers sticking around where they might be hit by land based a/c, even the relatively weak and ineffective anti ship a/c formations the Allies had. At Ceylon British land based bombers penetrated the radar-less defense of the Japanese carriers, bomb splashes first revealed their presence. Fortunately for the IJN they all missed.
Again it’s not that the Zero won a campaign the Japanese couldn’t have won otherwise. Basically the unreadiness (USN)/unavailability(RN) of an Allied naval force able to fight a decisive action against the Japanese one meant the Japanese could continue advancing till they lost that clear naval superiority (as they did in June 1942). But they might have lost it before they could take all the places they did if forced to either advance in steps of say 200 miles under land based air cover (effective radius of most Allied fighters) instead of 500+ miles (effective radius of the Zero). Or if they’d had to keep risking their main carrier force to significant land based air power, which in the actual campaign they seldom did after PH.
I can’t think of a case where a fighter’s particular characteristics had more impact on an overall large campaign. IOW the refutation of my point would be to give such an example (the P-51 wrt USAAF strategic bombing campaign is No. 2 IMO, are their others?). It’s not a refutation of my point to say the Zero’s characteristics alone didn’t determine the early course of the Pac War, because that’s not what I’m saying.