# best stock movement analysis sources? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 9, 2020, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149 "2020-03-09T15:00:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Jim\_Peebles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Jim\_Peebles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim_Peebles)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/1 "2020-03-09T15:00:38Z")
I’m sick of reading “stocks are down on coronavirus fears”. I think it is more likely a shortage of “Wuhan Widgets” from the quarantine is having a domino effect, not “fear”. And it looks like some state actors are now gaming oil prices. What are the best news sources (preferably written, but an astute youtuber might actually be better, or who knows) for learning about what really is driving the stock prices? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/2 "2020-03-09T15:03:03Z")
We’re experiencing a pandemic that is severely impacting both local economies and global supply chains. Also, OPEC members couldn’t agree on quotas so now there’s a war on in petroleum sales. Do you really need more than that? Are you looking for a reason other than “pandemic”? Well, sure, there’s all the other usual factors impacting stocks but honestly, yes, SARS-COV-2 _really is_ a major factor here. ---
**Author:** ![Jim\_Peebles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Jim\_Peebles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim_Peebles)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/3 "2020-03-09T15:10:01Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > We’re experiencing a pandemic that is severely impacting both local economies and global supply chains. Also, OPEC members couldn’t agree on quotas so now there’s a war on in petroleum sales. > > Do you really need more than that? > > Are you looking for a reason other than “pandemic”? > > Well, sure, there’s all the other usual factors impacting stocks but honestly, yes, SARS-COV-2 _really is_ a major factor here. I want a detailed analysis, with tables of numbers and graphs. I don’t want a handwaving couple of sentences. If there is a coronavirus “fear factor”, I want to see the equation of the assumed model and details on how they estimated it. I am not fooling around here. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/4 "2020-03-09T15:48:24Z")
> [@Jim\_Peebles](#): > > I want a detailed analysis, with tables of numbers and graphs. I don’t want a handwaving couple of sentences. If there is a coronavirus “fear factor”, I want to see the equation of the assumed model and details I’m fairly certain all the people I’ve listened to that are describing as basically a panic sell with no real logic behind it aren’t just making that up. I’m not sure if you’re trying to find a bottom, but if you are, you’re going to be better off just buying on the way down rather than trying to time a rebound. > [@](#): > > on how they estimated it. I am not fooling around here. No one is. Hell, a few weeks back, I lost a good chunk of change (and there was a margin call so my positions were closed automatically), I’m not fooling around either. And considering what I lost, which wasn’t that much in the grand scheme, I’m pretty sure all the people that are down hundreds of thousands or millions aren’t fooling around either. If there was logic behind this, if we had an idea as to where the bottom would be, we’d all be on the verge of a nice windfall. ---
**Author:** ![Jim\_Peebles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Jim\_Peebles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim_Peebles)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/5 "2020-03-09T15:53:34Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > I’m fairly certain all the people I’ve listened to that are describing as basically a panic sell with no real logic behind it aren’t just making that up. > > I’m not sure if you’re trying to find a bottom, but if you are, you’re going to be better off just buying on the way down rather than trying to time a rebound. I am already buying on the way down. I have little hope this reading will help me allocate better, but I am insanely curious about what is really going on. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/6 "2020-03-09T15:59:12Z")
> [@Jim\_Peebles](#): > > I want a detailed analysis, with tables of numbers and graphs. I don’t want a handwaving couple of sentences. If there is a coronavirus “fear factor”, I want to see the equation of the assumed model and details on how they estimated it. I am not fooling around here. I worked in the markets for 13 years. What you’re asking for doesn’t exist. That’s like asking for a detailed proof of ‘Why is my wife so moody today and anything I say sets her off?’ ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/7 "2020-03-09T16:03:13Z")
> [@Jim\_Peebles](#): > > I’m sick of reading “stocks are down on coronavirus fears”. I think it is more likely a shortage of “Wuhan Widgets” from the quarantine is having a domino effect, not “fear”. Stock prices represent predictions about the future WRT profit. Prices are going down, not so much because of a present-day shortage of “Wuhan Widgets,” but because there is uncertainty about when said shortage might end. People are afraid it might not end soon (there’s your “coronavirus fear”), and profits in the future for companies that depend on Wuhan Widgets will be down. What is the domino effect you mentioned, if it’s not fear? ---
**Author:** ![Jim\_Peebles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Jim\_Peebles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim_Peebles)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/8 "2020-03-09T16:10:27Z")
> [@Machine\_Elf](#): > > Stock prices represent predictions about the future WRT profit. Prices are going down, not so much because of a present-day shortage of “Wuhan Widgets,” but because there is uncertainty about when said shortage might end. People are afraid it might not end soon (there’s your “coronavirus fear”), and profits in the future for companies that depend on Wuhan Widgets will be down. > > What is the domino effect you mentioned, if it’s not fear? I want a source that has it analyzed like this: Widget Mart lost revenue because they had a shortage of Wuhan Widgets. So to make payments on some loans they had to sell stock in Discombobulators, sending the price of that stock down. Etc. I am imagining network graphs tied to spreadsheets. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/9 "2020-03-09T16:12:57Z")
> [@Machine\_Elf](#): > > What is the domino effect you mentioned, if it’s not fear? I believe there’s a lot of selling in unrelated markets as well. People get nervous and figure this is a good sign that they should take some money (and profit) off the table. Couple that with computer driven high frequency trading and things can fall apart in a hurry. ---
**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/10 "2020-03-09T16:40:23Z")
The truth is, no one really knows why the stock market drops or why it rises. I’m sure that you understand that a stock price in the market is determined because there was a person who wanted to sell the stock at that price and a person who was willing to buy it at that price. That is true for every stock. The indexes are determined the same way, except by weighting the market prices of many stocks. So, what you are asking is, “what is the model the person who sold the stock using to determine that price, and what is the model the person buying at using to determine the price?” There is no way to know. You have to ask them and if you do, you have to believe that what they tell you is the real reason rather than a lie or a post hoc rationalization. And then, you have to know that information for every person who trades in the market for every day. People on the financial news are paid to talk about and explain price movements in stocks. So that’s what they do, even if they don’t know. It’s reasonable for the news media to say that when everyone is talking about how the coronavirus will disrupt business and the market is down, that there is a link between the two. Talking heads will make the link even though they don’t have any reliable econometric model that indicates that coronavirus is the particular reason. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/11 "2020-03-09T16:51:54Z")
> [@Jim\_Peebles](#): > > I want a source that has it analyzed like this: > Widget Mart lost revenue because they had a shortage of Wuhan Widgets. So to make payments on some loans they had to sell stock in Discombobulators, sending the price of that stock down. Etc. I am imagining network graphs tied to spreadsheets. You are missing the forest for the trees. At least for today, the house is on fire, and no fireman is preparing a scientific explanation of why this particular piece of furniture was set alight by this particular burning drape or that particular carpet that is engulfed, and what the proper ignition point is for the dining room table. The whole house is on fire at this moment, and the firemen are dealing with the overall situation, not analyzing micro-trends. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/12 "2020-03-09T17:48:33Z")
> [@Jim\_Peebles](#): > > I want a source that has it analyzed like this: > Widget Mart lost revenue because they had a shortage of Wuhan Widgets. So to make payments on some loans they had to sell stock in Discombobulators, sending the price of that stock down. Etc. I am imagining network graphs tied to spreadsheets. I can’t imagine you’re going to find a whole lot of that until financials start getting reported, but that’s close to a month away. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/13 "2020-03-09T18:30:17Z")
Jim, the fundamentals of many of the companies have not changed. What you are seeing is a **broad market** sell off, meaning that many people including money managers, fund managers, portfolio managers, and even individuals that are invested in broad based index funds are selling off exposure to the S&P, DJIA, Russell 2000, etc. And generally they are buying into bonds, which is why you are seeing bond yields plummet. ---
**Author:** ![phxjcc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8491ac/32.png) [@phxjcc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phxjcc)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/14 "2020-03-09T22:35:04Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > Jim, the fundamentals of many of the companies have not changed. What you are seeing is a **broad market** sell off, meaning that many people including money managers, fund managers, portfolio managers, and even individuals that are invested in broad based index funds are selling off exposure to the S&P, DJIA, Russell 2000, etc. And generally they are buying into bonds, which is why you are seeing bond yields plummet. This statement is false. The S&P500 market multiple was 18 \* P/E, ok? Now, Joey and Suzy across the street? They work for Amazon, who told them to work from home. So, now they do—and don’t go to Luigi’s Pizza for lunch, buy gas at Argo, buy clothes at Macy’s, take the kids to McD’s when they have had a rough day, etc. Now, Luigi has to cut back, as does Macy’s, etc, etc. So, price of stocks fall because earnings are expected to fall. …and all those Shale Oil producers? All heavily leveraged to the banks. Their oil costs $43 to produce and they can only get $33. So they may default. And lay off. …and etc. And…“Quarantine Themselves?” Remember when this was called “stay home sick”? The media is NOT helping, they are helping create panic. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2020, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/15 "2020-03-09T22:39:12Z")
> [@Jim\_Peebles](#): > > I want a source that has it analyzed like this: > Widget Mart lost revenue because they had a shortage of Wuhan Widgets. So to make payments on some loans they had to sell stock in Discombobulators, sending the price of that stock down. Etc. I am imagining network graphs tied to spreadsheets. Assuming this exists, why would you expect to get it for free? ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/16 "2020-03-11T11:49:00Z")
Assume a source like this existed. If it exists, professional money managers would use it. If professional money managers used it, they would beat the stock market index investors. Study after study has proven that the index investors beat the managed funds investors over the long term. Therefore, no sources like this exist, or if a source like this exists it doesn’t confer any meaningful advantage to the investor. QED. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/17 "2020-03-11T14:04:30Z")
> [@Bill\_Door](#): > > Assume a source like this existed. If it exists, professional money managers would use it. If professional money managers used it, they would beat the stock market index investors. Study after study has proven that the index investors beat the managed funds investors over the long term. Therefore, no sources like this exist, or if a source like this exists it doesn’t confer any meaningful advantage to the investor. QED. I think this is a big part of the answer. If OP’s tool existed, it would be very valuable. If available only to a few, they would be raking in profits. If available to the many, the market would be much more efficient than it is. Still, **Bill Door** misses one point, I think. _Those who have the best tools do not manage publicly traded funds._ Why would they want to generate big profits for others, when they can make big profits for themselves? The classic example is Jim Simons’ Renaissance Fund: its money-making is just for Simons himself and the programmers whose talents give it unbelievable profits. But AFAIK Simons doesn’t actually use external information to make his bets — aren’t his method mostly just very sophisticated chartism? :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/18 "2020-03-11T14:22:51Z")
IMHO the OP suffers from the common fallacy that there is some “secret knowledge” that they are not privy to. And that if they only had access to it, they would be able to “win” in this environment. I get it, uncertainty is painful. To some, the lack of control from uncertainty is _excruciating_. Just know that you are not alone, the highly paid experts don’t know much more than you do, and take some comfort in that. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/19 "2020-03-11T14:46:48Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > _Those who have the best tools do not manage publicly traded funds._ Why would they want to generate big profits for others, when they can make big profits for themselves? Makes sense, if you’ve got the capital to get started in the first place. If you don’t, then you’re gonna have to convince other people to let you use their money so that you can charge them a percentage. As portrayed in [The Big Short,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film)) Michael Burry saw the 2008 market crash coming, invested $1B of other people’s money, and made a ton of money for all of them - including $100M for himself. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149/20 "2020-03-11T17:52:01Z")
> [@Jim\_Peebles](#): > > I want a source that has it analyzed like this: > Widget Mart lost revenue because they had a shortage of Wuhan Widgets. So to make payments on some loans they had to sell stock in Discombobulators, sending the price of that stock down. Etc. I am imagining network graphs tied to spreadsheets. And you want this on a daily basis? Including stuff that is proprietary to a company that they don’t have to report? For every company? Not that it would help you. This micro stuff is not going to help you anticipate the 2,000 point fall Monday, the 1,000 point gain yesterday and the 1,000 point drop so far today. I believe there are analysts who follow specific companies, and you can buy info from them. But even they are not going to give you a detailed look inside a company. Even the company couldn’t do that, based on my experience inside some. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/best-stock-movement-analysis-sources/849149.md?page=2)