# Biden and Trump polling neck and neck: How, exactly? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [August 8, 2023, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267 "2023-08-08T19:09:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/81 "2023-08-14T20:53:08Z")
> [@TeroSunbear](#): > > Also, the result of the 2020 election was 51% to 47% Trump. Really? According to Wikipedia, the popular vote was 51.3% Biden, 46.9% Trump. > **[2020 United States presidential election | Electoral results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Electoral_results)** > > Candidates are listed individually below if they received more than 0.1% of the popular vote. Popular vote totals are from the Federal Election Commission report. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/82 "2023-08-14T20:55:47Z")
Must have been the result of a disingenuous Faux news graphic. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/83 "2023-08-14T21:10:00Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > This is a big issue for the market research industry as a whole, but is exacerbated in political polling, as there are organizations that do “push polling” (conducting what appear to be political polls, but are actually biased campaigning calls). With political polling, there is a test where we can check the final poll results against actual. If polling accuracy was going down, we thus can know. Although 2020 polling performance [apparently was substandard](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020-poll-errors/2021/07/18/8d6a9838-e7df-11eb-ba5d-55d3b5ffcaf1_story.html), the articles I’ve come across at 538 don’t show a general falloff of accuracy in the cellphone/internet era. In terms of horse race handicapping we do at StraightDope, my problem with criticizing polling has to do with what to replace it with. In my view, the two leading alternatives to the polls are wishful thinking and catastrophizing. While I might be psychologically inclined a bit in the latter direction, neither is likely to improve on imperfect polling. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/84 "2023-08-14T21:13:08Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > > [@TeroSunbear](#): > > > > Also, the result of the 2020 election was 51% to 47% Trump. > > Really? According to Wikipedia, the popular vote was 51.3% Biden, 46.9% Trump. I _think_ @TeroSunbear was saying the election was 51% **Biden** and 47% Trump. They just rounded the numbers. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/85 "2023-08-14T21:16:23Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > I _think_ @TeroSunbear was saying the election was 51% **Biden** and 47% Trump. They just rounded the numbers. Maybe so, but not mentioning Biden’s name there made it seem like they were saying “The election went for Trump, 51%-47%.” ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/86 "2023-08-14T21:30:33Z")
Me, too. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/87 "2023-08-14T22:45:07Z")
Sorry, was on phone, 51% Biden. Anyway, that is still very close, and the support for the two is likely to be still similar. Disgruntled people who voted for Trump are still disgruntled. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/88 "2023-08-14T23:24:25Z")
I think Trump has peaked and then slid in terms of voting popularity. I see Trump as always finding ways to lose voters, and not gain new ones. With margins like we’ve seen, every bit counts. Trump lost to Biden when they faced off, and his stink has only gotten stinkier since then. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/89 "2023-08-14T23:29:57Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > I see Trump as always finding ways to lose voters, and not gain new ones. He gained votes between his two presidential elections. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/90 "2023-08-14T23:39:48Z")
It’s a valid point. But with the losses of his endorsed candidates, and the lack of a midterm red wave, I guess both parties gained votes. More people voted for Biden than for anyone before. I guess my point is that I believe Trump turns more people off than he turns on, and in increasing proportion. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2023, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/91 "2023-08-14T23:58:20Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > I guess my point is that I believe Trump turns more people off than he turns on, and in increasing proportion. He’s like the [durian fruit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Durian) of politicians. ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2023, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/92 "2023-08-15T03:40:14Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > He gained votes between his two presidential elections. But, so did Biden relative to HRC, as I believe any reasonable Democratic candidate would equally have done. Voter turnout in 2020 was higher than it had been in decades. On the other hand, as I noted above, due to the machinations of the Electoral College Biden won the election by a whisker. ETA: I noted that in the other current thread linked in one of the early replies. _ **The decisive factor in Biden’s victory wasn’t his seven million vote margin in the popular vote, but the fact that he carried some key states by mere thousands in addition to all the millions of votes he got from the safe blue states.** _ ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2023, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/93 "2023-08-15T03:42:30Z")
This just in (Reuters): [Georgia charges Trump, former advisers in 2020 election case](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-state-georgia-appears-set-file-charges-against-donald-trump-court-document-2023-08-14/) ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2023, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/94 "2023-08-15T11:15:26Z")
**Moderating:** While I understand the impulse to share here, there is a whole thread dedicated to the indictments in Georgia. > [@What happens if Trump is indicted in Georgia? (Indicted on August 14, 2023)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-is-indicted-in-georgia-indicted-on-august-14-2023/979928): > > All I’ve been able to find so far is: For the hearing, he might be brought to the Fulton County courthouse via cooperation between the Georgia State Patrol and Florida Highway Patrol. Probably no frog-marching though. But (more likely), he could waive his appearance at the hearing, and his lawyers would appear on his behalf. The prosecution could ask for a very high bail, and the judge might confiscate his passport, but apparently the flight risk is very low, due to his high visibility. … ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2023, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/95 "2023-08-28T15:58:30Z")
I think MAGA voters just couldn’t/can’t believe he lost because, after all, they took the effort to go vote for him. So Trump couldn’t POSSIBLY have lost. And then, when faced with those pesky facts, like Trump, they can’t believe the facts. They are ‘neck and neck’ because they will answer polls. I’m not so sure they will vote again though, ‘cause the election was stolen’. They didn’t get their way. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2023, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/96 "2023-08-28T16:36:25Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > They are ‘neck and neck’ because they will answer polls. I’m not so sure they will vote again though, ‘cause the election was stolen’. They didn’t get their way. This is a very good point. I remember how there were runoffs in Georgia for 2 seats just after the 2020 main elections, and Trump had been beating the “election is rigged, your votes didn’t count” drum very loudly by that point. Both of those elections fell to Democrats, which was a bit of a surprise, and a number of people attributed that to Trump discouraging his followers from voting (though probably unintentionally, he just didn’t care because he wasn’t the one running). Likewise, in the midterm elections, while Republicans did well enough to take the House, it was nowhere near the “red wave” that was predicted. They actually lost ground a bit in the Senate, and MAGA candidates in particular fared very poorly across the nation. Now, things might be very different when it’s Trump himself running. I can see him saying something like, “They stole the last one but if enough of you vote for me even their election fraud attempts won’t be enough, and I’ll be able to make it like I did in 2016.” While a thinking person could poke a thousand holes in that argument, we’re talking about MAGA people. But still, there may be an element of apathy among some of his followers. You never know. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2023, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/97 "2023-08-28T21:07:47Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > I remember how there were runoffs in Georgia for 2 seats just after the 2020 main elections, and Trump had been beating the “election is rigged, your votes didn’t count” drum very loudly by that point. These are good points in terms of the election being unpredictable. Widespread election day rain could easily push Biden over the top now that Democrats mostly vote in advance, while Republicans wait it out until election day. But there are circumstances going the other way. One: Likely Green Party candidate Cornel West is going to get more votes than Howie Hawkins did in 2020. This is from an Emerson College (A- 538 pollster rating) poll out today: > [@](#): > > In a hypothetical matchup between Trump and Biden, 46% would vote for Trump and 44% Biden. Ten percent are undecided. With Green Party candidate Cornel West added to the ballot test, 44% support Trump, 39% Biden, 4% West, and 13% are undecided. > > “Despite losing ground in the Republican Primary, support for Donald Trump in a hypothetical matchup against Joe Biden increased two points since last week’s poll,” Kimball said. “Cornel West continues to draw support from 7% of independents, 8% from Black voters, and 7% from Hispanics, key demographics that drove Biden’s 2020 victory.” ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2023, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/98 "2023-08-28T21:45:00Z")
Might be a hijack, but I’ll never understand why Greens like West run. They know they can’t win. And they know that they will likely pull far more votes from the D candidate than the R candidate, increasing the likelihood of the R winning. And they know that the R candidate will be worse for the environment than the D candidate. So add it up, and they know their candidacy will, if anything, hurt the very cause they claim to champion. Yay, go prove your point. Better yet, fuck off. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2023, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/99 "2023-08-28T22:34:38Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Might be a hijack, but I’ll never understand why Greens like West run. They know they can’t win. And they know that they will likely pull far more votes from the D candidate than the R candidate, increasing the likelihood of the R winning. And they know that the R candidate will be worse for the environment than the D candidate. So add it up, and they know their candidacy will, if anything, hurt the very cause they claim to champion. It’s the classic perfect is the enemy of the good scenario. Yes, there’s a definite risk of this happening. It does in part explain the poll results, so no, I don’t think it’s a hijack. Lot’s of people seem to have forgotten Ralph Nader. ---
**Author:** ![Digger11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@Digger11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digger11)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2023, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/100 "2023-08-29T04:55:32Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Might be a hijack, but I’ll never understand why Greens like West run. They know they can’t win. And they know that they will likely pull far more votes from the D candidate than the R candidate, increasing the likelihood of the R winning. And they know that the R candidate will be worse for the environment than the D candidate. So add it up, and they know their candidacy will, if anything, hurt the very cause they claim to champion. Perhaps the Constitution Party can help you understand. [http://www.americanconstitutionparty.com/About%20the%20Party.html](http://www.americanconstitutionparty.com/About%20the%20Party.html) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267.md?page=6)