# Biden and Trump polling neck and neck: How, exactly? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [August 8, 2023, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267 "2023-08-08T19:09:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/141 "2023-09-07T14:29:15Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > > > But given Trump’s history of outperforming polls, it’s plausible that many of those telling pollsters they are undecided are actually shy Trumpers. > > My guess is the “shy Trump” voters don’t exist to any large degree anymore. I think this may be evidence they do: [Age haunts Biden vs. “crooked” Trump](https://www.axios.com/2023/08/29/biden-trump-2024-age-legal-issues) > [@](#): > > 77% of adults think Biden, 80, is too old to effectively serve for four more years > . . . > Just over half of all adults think that Trump is too old to effectively serve another term On the surface, this makes little sense. Their ages are similar. Biden bicycles, Trump sits in a golf cart. One possible explanation: it’s more socially acceptable, in mixed company, to say that Biden is too old than to admit to planing to vote for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/142 "2023-09-07T14:43:40Z")
From that article: - Just over half of all adults think that Trump is too old to effectively serve another term, with 71% of Democrats holding that view and 28% of Republicans. so 71% is just over half? Here’s another bit from that axios report: **Zoom out:** Biden, already the [oldest](https://www.axios.com/2022/11/19/joe-biden-oldest-us-presidents-in-office) sitting president, would be 86 at the end of a second term. Biden has leaned into his age — and in recent months has increasingly [joked about it](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-is-old-rcna91433). - Trump, who would be 78 on Election Day 2024, faces vast legal pressure and is the [first](https://www.axios.com/2023/03/30/trump-indicted-manhattan-grand-jury-criminal) sitting or former U.S. president to face criminal charges. Why are they comparing the age of Biden at the end of his second term with that of Trump on Election Day? That whole article is garbage, IMO. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/143 "2023-09-07T15:06:18Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > - Just over half of all adults think that Trump is too old to effectively serve another term, with 71% of Democrats holding that view and 28% of Republicans. > > so 71% is just over half? ? You can follow links to get to the actual numbers. Lots there. But yes the overall number is 51%, essentially half, including 28% of Republicans and 78% of Democrats. I like following the definitely not support numbers. Currently 53% Trump and 43% Biden. Yes the potential first for each of them are those items. That makes them notable. ---
**Author:** ![tullsterx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e9bcb4/32.png) [@tullsterx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tullsterx)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/144 "2023-09-07T15:15:18Z")
So, 100% of the country is wondering how this is possible. Everyone I know, or speak to about such things, can’t see how Biden can be polling so high. And there are others, that can’t see how Trump polls so high. It’s like a damn children’s parable. . . there’s was a town where half the people thought the sky was green and half thought the sky was red, but it was neither. . . then the old hen. . . I forget the rest. I think what we’re seeing is. . . effective group think and media manipulation. I guess. But to me, you guys are all just crazy. But, that can’t be right. Can it? ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/145 "2023-09-07T15:28:42Z")
A new depressing CNN poll and another article on how badly Biden is perceived in the eyes of potential voters. I really don’t get it. Inflation is coming down and the job market is strong-- two of the main factors that determine voter satisfaction, despite the fact that Presidents have little control over either. But in a larger sense, things are relatively calm…there’s not much plain old unwanted drama to the Biden Presidency. I remember a lot of talk during the trump admin about just the sheer exhaustion of it-- how, during Obama’s admin one could go about their daily lives and not have to think about Obama for days at a time, not be subjected to scandal after yet another constant scandal. And the _ **constant** _ trump thirst for attention-- good or bad attention, it was all like oxygen to him. Yes, there’s the Hunter Biden stuff, but that seems so small potatoes, even if there is some connection to Joe Biden, which is far from proven. Is Repub propaganda _ **really** _ so effective? I guess it is. Time to go visit the ‘Schadenfreud’ thread to hopefully cheer me up a little… > **[CNN Poll: Biden faces negative job ratings and concerns about his age as he...](https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/politics/cnn-poll-joe-biden-headwinds/index.html)** > > President Joe Biden faces continued headwinds from broadly negative job ratings overall, widespread concerns about his age and decreased confidence among Democratic-aligned voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. > **[Biden's unpopularity could give Trump his shot at reclaiming power | CNN...](https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/politics/joe-biden-2024-reelection-donald-trump)** > > The devastating verdict voters deliver on President Joe Biden in a new CNN poll is especially stark ahead of the most unprecedented election in modern times. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/146 "2023-09-07T16:38:37Z")
> [@solost](#): > > Is Repub propaganda _ **really** _ so effective? My hypothesis is that we are in an era of one-term presidencies due to a sour and cynical voter mood. At best, Biden will pull out a very narrow win despite being, as explained in prior posts, a successful president. As for the effectiveness of Republican propaganda, I think it would be more effective if their party had a more popular leader. Trump will keep this close in what would otherwise be a GOP year. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/147 "2023-09-07T17:14:03Z")
My prediction is that despite misleading polls, there is no way Trump is going to be POTUS again. If he couldn’t pull it off in 2020, he definitely won’t now. I do not trust polls at all. I’m extremely confident. Unless there’s a huge disaster between now and next year, Biden will serve a second term. I don’t think it’ll be a landslide, but I think it will be a tiny bit more comfortable than last time. Feel free to quote me in November of next year regardless of how it goes. ---
**Author:** ![slicedalone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slicedalone/32/12515_2.png) [@slicedalone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slicedalone)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/148 "2023-09-07T17:23:15Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > next year regardless of how it goes. If the GOP runs the most unstable, clearly treacherous, least qualified maniac they can ever locate again, I’ll never trust the voters of this country to vote for a Democrat over him again. Ever. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/149 "2023-09-07T17:34:29Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > My prediction is that despite misleading polls, there is no way Trump is going to be POTUS again. If he couldn’t pull it off in 2020, he definitely won’t now. I hope to God you’re right. But let’s not forget that in 2020 trump got more votes than any sitting President in history. He only lost because the fired-up Dem base delivered Biden even more votes. And trump got his record number of incumbent votes directly after an utterly insane term. Now it will be 4 years of time for short-memoried voters to have forgotten the worst of the trump insanity, and the Democratic base seems the opposite of fired up. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/150 "2023-09-07T17:37:57Z")
> [@solost](#): > > I hope to God you’re right. But let’s not forget that in 2020 trump got more votes than any sitting President in history. He only lost because the fired-up Dem base delivered Biden even more votes. My gut feeling is that Trump pulled off a couple of miracles, one win and one close loss, but his magic is running out. He has had nothing but setbacks since 2020. He’s on a downward trajectory. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/151 "2023-09-07T17:38:56Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Maybe more like 1/3 of Republicans, but still. And most of the rest of the GOP will vote for any candidate with (R), no matter how disgusting, as at least that means no liberals on the Courts. > > The thing is- Progressives and Independents are wishing for a younger, less white, and maybe female Prez candidate. (But Harris is not their fave). > > In other words, about 1/3 or so of Americans are wishing for a fantasy candidate that doesnt exist. > > And of course, anything that went wrong since Biden was swore in will be blamed on him. > > Come election day, most of those last two things will go away, once people know it is either Herr trump of Good old Joe. The 1/3 true loyal MAGAs would like write his name in even if he lost the primary. So in other words a typical early poll 1/3 The Republican no matter who it is 1/3 The Democrat no matter who it is. 1/3 Anyone besides The Republican and The Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/152 "2023-09-07T17:40:48Z")
Weren’t there more voters than any time in history? Like population growth? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/153 "2023-09-07T17:44:15Z")
Of course. Biden will certainly be the incumbent receiving the most votes in history in 2024. And certainly the 2028 winner will be able to say the same after 2032. It’s all population growth. Funny how Donnie always talks about getting the most votes of any incumbent but never mentions that he still didn’t win a plurality. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/154 "2023-09-07T17:51:05Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > Weren’t there more voters than any time in history? Like population growth? Yes, I’m sure that was part of what drove the number of votes, but I believe it was also a very high to record turnout in terms of percentage of total population. Which in general is a great thing for Democracy, when you get people voting who ordinarily don’t, but a large part of the reason behind the turnout was the circus-like atmosphere surrounding the 2020 election, with all of trump’s shenanigans, or threatened shenanigans. Fortunately it fired up vote turnout on both sides of the coin, with the Biden side winning out. I’m concerned the trump-leaning voters who ordinarily don’t vote will be fired up to vote again in 2024, while the Democratic-leaning voters who ordinarily don’t vote will largely stay home. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/155 "2023-09-07T18:39:33Z")
> [@solost](#): > > But in a larger sense, things are relatively calm…there’s not much plain old unwanted drama to the Biden Presidency. As we approached the last election, I remember reading about all the hysteria and manufactured rage from the usual suspects (Fox, House loonies, etc.). Outrageous stuff. Democrats are trying to take your country from you and destroy everything you hold dear. Kiss your rights goodbye. We are descending into a woke totalitarianism. They hate you and what you love. This is our last chance, because if Biden is elected, all is lost. That kind of stuff. My naive thought after the election was that they’d see just how baseless this nonsense was. I mean, it’s Uncle Joe, for Pete’s sake! About as inoffensive and moderate a politician as one could find. The crumbling of the nation not only would not occur, but things would be pretty calm, little drama. Anyway, about a month after inauguration—literally that quickly, after a span of time that would not have afforded an evil, pedophile dictator room to perform his villainy—I saw signs popping up: “Don’t blame me. I voted for Trump.” That’s when it hit me. They were told an evil apocalypse was soon to be inflicted on them. And after, they were told it was happening, just as predicted—_and they believed it!_ No evidence in front of their eyes to support it. None of their rights had changed. Looking about they could have seen that things were pretty much as they had been after only 30 days. But they were told that it was happening, and that was good enough. That’s why the polls are what they are, and why reality (unemployment rates, inflation, administration accomplishments) has zero impact on a large swath of the population. I don’t know how Biden overcomes this, though I pray (and believe) this block is not large enough to defeat him. I can get very depressed over what our country has revealed itself to be. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/156 "2023-09-07T18:51:20Z")
> [@solost](#): > > Which in general is a great thing for Democracy, when you get people voting who ordinarily don’t, but a large part of the reason behind the turnout was the circus-like atmosphere surrounding the 2020 election, with all of trump’s shenanigans, or threatened shenanigans. Fortunately it fired up vote turnout on both sides of the coin, with the Biden side winning out. I’d wager that a big part of it was also the push to enable mail-in voting in places that didn’t have it before, because they didn’t want people to congregate in polling locations and risk exposing people to Covid. And if you make it easier to vote, more people will vote. If that was the case, you might see large turnout again next year. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/157 "2023-09-07T19:03:13Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > My gut feeling is that Trump pulled off a couple of miracles, one win and one close loss, I disagree. He won in 2016 with an excellent election strategy vs a horrible election strategy. In 2020 it was two ordinary election strategies and he got curbstomped. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/158 "2023-09-07T19:03:44Z")
I’m sure there is a lot of truth to that, sure. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/159 "2023-09-07T19:28:39Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > Weren’t there more voters than any time in history? Like population growth? Yes, a small amount is due to population growth. But IIRC the overall turnout in terms of percentage of eligible voters was the highest in something like 100 years, going back to the days of when Woodrow Wilson was elected. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2023, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267/160 "2023-09-07T19:32:29Z")
What percentage of that turnout increase was driven by white hot hatred of Trump? Nobody drives negative voter turnout like him. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-and-trump-polling-neck-and-neck-how-exactly/988267.md?page=9)