That’s tough to know. One huge factor is that this was before 1/6/2021, so hatred of Trump, as high as it may have been in those days, wasn’t as high as it is now. My hope is that my previously mentioned group of old fashioned conservative Republicans (now even further disenchanted post 1/6/) make up a large fraction of the undecideds, and that short memory far left voters make up a small fraction. But it’s hard to determine something like that based on job approval numbers.
It was evident in the 2018 midterms though. Maybe not as much as post 1/6, but it was there. Having him as the head of the GOP has resulted in losses in 2018, 2020, 2022, and the special elections since 11/2022 have gone farther in the Democrats direction than they did in special elections between 2018 and 2020.
That describes me. Technically I’m unaffiliated and not a Republican anymore. If I had to vote today it would either be for Lisa Murkowski or Kamala Harris. Yes, a throw away protest vote but:
I have a few reasons not to vote for Biden going from the 80s to currently.
I’m in Colorado. Like our EVs won’t go to Biden no matter how I vote?
I don’t disagree that that is part of it, but part is also states making it easier to vote. Traditionally it’s the Republicans that walked to their polling place decked out in their best red, white and blue outfits to vote. Now states allow from the comfort of their own home and in my state, voting by mail is the only option.
There are still plenty of stories of extremely long lines at polling stations in urban areas with high population. For some reason this only seems to happen in urban areas. Some reason…
But anyway that’s off topic. My point is nobody drives Democratic turnout more than Trump. The GOP is stuck in a trap of their own making. They can’t win a primary without the MAGAs, but they they struggle in state-wide and national general elections because MAGA pulls them so far to the extreme right that it turns off everyone who isn’t MAGA. For instance, every election denying secretary of state candidate in the swing states lost in 2020. The more they played that card to get the nomination the worse they did in the general. I am no prognosticator, and won’t predict anything for 2024, but I have a hard time concerning myself with these polls this far out. The media loves a horse race. The GOP wants to make sure it looks like a horse race. Hell, even the Dems have reason to want it to look close so those donations keep coming in and enthusiasm increases. Who involved wants it to look like anything other than close right now?
Given how much pundits like intensifiers, I’m sure there will be mainstream newspaper columns, in the next fourteen months, saying that this or that is a huge political disaster for one candidate or the other.
But I admit that my claim — Trump ran ahead of Biden from February to at least early September 2023 — is even more completely non-falsifiable.
The greatest of prognosticators may only be 60 or 70 percent correct this far out. So, while there will be opportunity for learning, there will be little reason for pride or shame. And if Trump wins, we’ve got bigger worries than who predicted it.
I can recall seeing this same idea on t-shirts and bumper stickers going back to the 80s – “Don’t blame me, I voted for Mondale,” etc.
Of course, that doesn’t mean the MAGAts don’t believe all the dire predictions are actually coming true. But it could also just be the typically snarky sour grapes.
I can recall, too. And my memory could be faulty, but it seems prior versions were more based in reality and didn’t emerge just a couple of weeks after the election. “We told you Reagan was going to pander to the rich, work to restrict women’s reproductive rights, etc.” That kind of thing.
As opposed to, “We told you it was going to rain fire and locusts would descend in a plague and your children would be ripped from your arms to be desanguinated for Biden to feed on. Told you so.”
While this is factually correct, with Biden undoubtedly having a longer remaining actuarial lifespan, what the voters see is stage presence, and in this area Trump beats Joe hands down in terms of vigor.
When Biden talks he just sounds old. Part of this might be due to his managing his stammer, but even when he is trying to be forceful it still sounds a bit feeble. While Trump has a booming oration style and animated energized affect. The content of this speeches is of course absolute gibberish but he says it with a passion and energy that Biden can’t match.
I’m pretty sure I saw them very soon after the elections. And I always just took them as, “Whatever you’re complaining about (or will be complaining about soon enough) wouldn’t be happening if my guy had won.”
Given their delusions, of course, I wouldn’t be surprised if MAGAts meant it a lot more literally.
A few days ago I was reading an account of an American who just returned after living in Europe for several years. The thing that he noticed, and was dismayed by the most was toxic politicization of seemingly everything. Things not relevant to the political process at all. As if everything someone didn’t like or was adverse in any way to them it was the fault of their political opponents.
Yep. “Thanks, Obama” became a joke on the left (at least in my circles) over the GOP’s blame game over everything.
So, somebody complaining that it’s been raining for four straight days? “Thanks, Obama.” Extra points if the line was delivered with Sean Hannity-level disapproval.
Umm, that happens in Europe also.
That’s it! Amazon free shipping went to 35 dollar value! I blame Biden. Will need to vote for Trump to stop inflation!
(Just kidding)
The degree of horrible has to be highlighted. That was less a campaign that was won; it was lost. It seemed like she took every chance she could to signal that she held White rural voters in contempt, and consequently was more responsible for driving up their turnout than anything Trump did.
It’s been said before here but bears repeating: pretty much equal portions of this country would vote for any Republican candidate (if they vote at all) and any Democratic candidate (if they vote at all); a small number can be swung to one or the other depending on who it is, maybe, (if they vote at all); and a large number of each group will simply not vote at all. They may vote for Trump (or against Biden) enthusiastically or holding their nose (likely few in between), or for Biden (or against Trump) enthusiastically or resignedly … again, if they vote.
“Likely voter” metrics are well and good but small shifts of which team has more of those who are “likely” or even less likely actually get motivated to do the deed, specifically in a very few critical states, will be what matters, and that is really hard to get at in polling, even right before Election Day. This far in advance it is impossible.
The MAGAs will come out and vote no matter what. Those of us who really hate Trump will vote no matter what. Influencing the turnout of the rest of both sides, in the key states, maybe even a slightly expanded plate of them, is what will make for a well or horribly run campaign.
Wondering how much the youth vote (especially new ones eligible to vote in '24) will count by election day. I’m assuming
they were not polled at all, and not sure how this sort of thing fared in past elections.
They are being polled, even those that aren’t old enough to vote yet (but will be next year). Young voters tend to go strongly for Democrats. But they also vote at the lowest rate for any age bracket.
Predicting demographic turnout is one of the hardest jobs for a pollster. They tend to start from averages of previous similar elections, but those things can change from cycle to cycle. Much of the current polling shows very unusual breakdowns when you look at age groups - so either the youth have suddenly decided Trump is OK or they just wish they had someone other than Biden to vote for. If it’s the latter, then the question becomes: will they show up and vote for him anyway or will they sit out?
What frustrates me are the people who think both choices are bad so they won’t vote at all, or they’ll vote for a third party, without recognizing just how catastrophic, and how much of an existential threat, one of the choices is.
Trump is not actually campaigning to win. He is campaigning to raise as much money as he can to pay his lawyers. The year of 2024 will be an existential crisis for him, resulting in more and more outrageous revenge plans. If he gets elected, it is jus a bonus for him then. He will dabble in hatred all 4 years. But do nothing as leader.
“Neither candidate will stop the genocide in Gaza or dismantle capitalism; therefore, they’re the same.”
I’ve actually seen this pretty much said outright. I suspect such folks are either currently privileged or else are so beaten down and trampled by life that they’ve lost hope for any improvement in their lot. It has certain parallels to conservatives, actually…