# Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 3, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690 "2024-07-03T16:50:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 22
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/421 "2024-07-07T22:54:14Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So you won’t vote for Biden vs Trump? If you still would, then it didn’t “move the needle”. If I were American, I’d be voting for Biden, but I’d be holding my nose doing it. C’mon, man! Pretty sad if this is the best (and only) candidate the Dems can come up with. Biden was getting old already in 2008 when he ran for VP with Obama. And I actually LIKE Biden, but he’s not really a leader anymore. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/422 "2024-07-07T22:56:43Z")
So it didn’t move the needle for you, then. Still a hypothetical Biden vote. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/423 "2024-07-07T23:05:43Z")
Well, for not being a leader, he has actually accomplished an awful lot in the last 3-1/2 years. (I say this as someone who now agrees with the sentiment that he should probably get out of the race…but that more has to do with his abilities to be an effective campaigner at this point (and possibly his future abilities to lead…4-1/2 years is a long time for someone over 80 years old). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/424 "2024-07-07T23:15:31Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > 538 showed Biden led Trump by 9.6 percent, in the rolling polling average, on July 7, 2020. Today, July 7, 2024, Biden trails by 2.3 percent. So — Biden is running about 11 points behind where he needs to be even to have a 50-50 chance of winning. I don’t think it quite works like that. Which is not disputing that there is a GOP electoral advantage to overcome. I don’t mind going into crunch time perceived as the underdog. I think that perception gets our learners off their asses and Trump leaners lazy. The polls right now don’t panic me yet, per se. It’s more a variant of the fundamentals. The perception of the economy is one fundamental and Biden’s ability to make his case forcefully and convincingly in simple clear language is another. The next few months are physically demanding in addition to actually doing the job of president. And he has to be creating new narratives. You don’t need to convince me that he is doing a very good job as president. But I’d appreciate being convinced that Biden 2024 can do the very challenging job of coming from behind with a skeptical public that right now is giving him poor approval ratings while also do the full time day job. Because he needs to respect his bedtime… ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/425 "2024-07-07T23:17:01Z")
> [@Biffster](#): > > In four years he’ll be 85. No need at all for him to serve four years. Voters thinking along those lines have their eyes way off the ball. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/426 "2024-07-07T23:46:32Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So it didn’t move the needle for you, then. Still a hypothetical Biden vote. Perhaps, but I don’t think that’s the point. For people who are committed one way or another, it didn’t move the “hypothetical needle” perhaps. But even for strong Dems, the debate was not a good performance. Even Biden admits it, but he tries to brush it off as just having a bad day. C’mon, man! Not a good enough explanation, Joe. The debate was not going to reassure any undecided voters either, the ones who WILL make a difference. Trump is an idiot, but he is a confident idiot. Biden should have done better, like he did at the SOTU, but this is not what happened. The Dems need a better strategy than to just hope for the best. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/427 "2024-07-07T23:50:02Z")
I will be voting for Biden knowing full well that I am really voting for Harris. I have no problem with that at all. I’m voting for the Democratic Party and the policies that they believe in. I’m also voting against trump and project 2025. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/428 "2024-07-07T23:51:47Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > No need at all for him to serve four years. Voters thinking along those lines have their eyes way off the ball. Trump and the MAGAts are thinking along those lines. They wasn’t Trump for life, however long that life. Nobody runs for President to complete only a partial term. Better to have Harris take over the reins now if you ask me. At least she’s earned it. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/429 "2024-07-07T23:52:51Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > I will be voting for Biden knowing full well that I am really voting for Harris. I have no problem with that at all. I’m voting for the Democratic Party and the policies that they believe in. > > I’m also voting against trump and project 2025. - Perfectly said. This is me to a tee. And my only response to people questioning Biden’s fitness is, “Trump is worse to the bone. And Project 2025.” I’ll elaborate on both points if asked. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/430 "2024-07-07T23:53:17Z")
> [@Biffster](#): > > It did for me and anyone I’ve talked to. It showed him to be weak under pressure. In four years he’ll be 85. I’m guessing he’s going to get progressively worse, not better. I checked the polls- if anything Biden has improved- Okay only slightly, but still, no drop. That is the needle I was talking about. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So you won’t vote for Biden vs Trump? If you still would, then it didn’t “move the needle”. Excellent point. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > 538 showed Biden led Trump by 9.6 percent, in the rolling polling average, on July 7, 2020. Yeah, that is because that happens to every President- No Joe cant save the world, and people are disappointed in that. He cant solve Gaza- altho God knows he has tried (It looks like Hamas has no interest in ending the war and Netanyahu is just fine with that) . He cant solve Inflation (altho it is under control), etc etc. And people are forgetting how bad trump was. But - Bidens poll numbers did not drop due to his bad debate- if anything, they edged up a little. I expect, as voters start realizing they really really have tow choices- _a serial sexual abuser and convicted felon fascist wannabe who is old and showing signs of mental decline-_ or **Good old Joe, who has done a very decent job as President these last few years- but sure isnt getting any younger.** Those are the choices- and once the voters realize it- the polls will get better.= and once the media wises up to Yeah- trump sells more papers but it will be the end of Freedom of the press as we know it- they will stop campaigning for trump. > [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > I’m also voting against trump and project 2025. Yep, this is the way we have to think. A vote for _anyone but Joe_- or staying home- is a vote for trump and fascism. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/431 "2024-07-07T23:54:29Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So you won’t vote for Biden vs Trump? If you still would, then it didn’t “move the needle”. I don’t believe this accurately addresses the reality that matters. The reality is the minority of swing voters who will decide the election. If the pre- and post-debate poll numbers from 538 cited by @PhillyGuy are accurate, it did move the needle for those deciders. I’m not trying to be negative here; I’m trying to avoid the kind of wishful thinking that’s dangerous in a crisis. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2024, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/432 "2024-07-07T23:58:31Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > If the pre- and post-debate poll numbers from 538 cited by @PhillyGuy are accurate, it did move the needle for those deciders. He showed no such numbers. He showed numbers when Biden had recently been elected vs new polls. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > 538 showed Biden led Trump by 9.6 percent, in the rolling polling average, on July 7, 2020. **2020** Actually it seems Biden improved a little post debate. And in other polls I saw- they were more or less even, with either one leading the other by a percent ot 2. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2024, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/433 "2024-07-08T00:01:06Z")
No one knows whether the ticket is stronger with Biden at the head or with Harris after the awful debate. Anyone who thinks they know is fooling themselves. If this was an easy question, it would be easy to figure out and move on. Have some humility. We don’t know what will happen. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2024, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/434 "2024-07-08T00:01:15Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > > [@Biffster](#): > > > > In four years he’ll be 85. > > No need at all for him to serve four years. People do not like to give up great power. That’s why Joe went from saying he was a transitional president to running. If whatever condition he has progresses, stubborn refusal to accept unwelcome advice of friends is liable to be a symptom. So I think if he is still on the ballot, that in the unlikely event of him winning in November, and if he doesn’t get some overwhelming and purely physical illness, he will be president for four years. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2024, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/435 "2024-07-08T00:02:51Z")
Ah, I had misunderstood the numbers on a quick read. Thanks for the correction. Nevertheless, the salient fact remains that Biden is not where he was in 2020, that he had an abysmal debate performance, and from what I’ve seen of him post-debate he’s not any better than he was that night. Something big has to happen to change those numbers. What do you think that’s going to be? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2024, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/436 "2024-07-08T00:04:06Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Nevertheless, the salient fact remains that Biden is not where he was in 2020, that he had an abysmal debate performance, and from what I’ve seen of him post-debate he’s not any better than he was that night. Something big has to happen to change those numbers. What do you think that’s going to be? People are gonna wake up, or we will see the end of Democracy as we know it. And I think they will wake up. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2024, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/437 "2024-07-08T00:08:43Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I checked the polls- if anything Biden has improved Just not factually accurate of the polls overall. Yes he improved on a very important set of polls of swing states from Morning Consult, and he [dropped](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polls-after-presidential-debate/story?id=111610497#:~:text=For%20instance%2C%20Democratic%2Daligned%20pollster,47%20percent%20to%2046%20percent.) on several national polls, albeit not all and not dramatically. What that illustrates to me as much as anything else is how calcified the positions are and how difficult the job Biden has, to move the needle … significantly… is. Accepted FWIW that conventions will still come with bounces. What do you base your belief that suddenly voters will wake up on? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2024, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/438 "2024-07-08T00:13:06Z")
Every or nearly every special election since Roe v Wade was overturned ended up way better for the Dems than the polling average. Often more than ten points better. If that continues, Biden is already way ahead, even with the post debate hit. I don’t know if it will, but it’s a reasonable supposition. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2024, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/439 "2024-07-08T00:16:39Z")
Is it? People who vote in special elections vote in presidential ones, yes, but so do lots of people who follow and care a lot less, and those folk are leaning solidly Trump right now. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2024, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/440 "2024-07-08T00:36:21Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I don’t know if it will, but it’s a reasonable supposition. It is a reasonable supposition that Biden has not withdrawn because of hopeful signs such as you point to here. Whether special elections are actually predictive of the next general election has been studied, and the answer is — slightly: [Do special elections predict general elections?](https://wapo.st/3LdN7iU) If Biden is basing his decision on the special elections, he might do well to read this: > **[party-realignment-education-and-the-turnout-advantage.pdf](https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/api-gateway/apsa/assets/orp/resource/item/62d961713787f112e4c0431f/original/party-realignment-education-and-the-turnout-advantage.pdf)** > > 936.14 KB > [@](#): > > Our findings show that increases in turnout benefit the Democratic Party in 2008 and 2012. However, this pattern has drastically changed. In 2016 and 2020, the Democratic Party is advantaged by lower turnout. During this period, the profile of marginal voters has also changed: less educated voters most on the fence about participating in presidential elections are increasingly Republican. This argues against special election results being a reason for Joe to stay in the race. P.S. My second link is to a public early version of this article that is behind a paywall: [https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1532673X231206149?icid=int.sj-abstract.citing-articles.2](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1532673X231206149?icid=int.sj-abstract.citing-articles.2) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690.md?page=21) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690.md?page=23)