# Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 3, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690 "2024-07-03T16:50:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1001 "2024-07-12T19:35:12Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > I think there’s also a boy who cried wolf problem for the Democrats. I’ve been told ever since I was first eligible to vote that “this is the most important election ever”. Yet for a lot of people, very little changes for the good and often things stayed the same or got worse, but not catastrophically. If the only thing keeping death and destruction away is this election, just like the last half dozen elections, either it’s not actually a crisis or the whole system is so screwed that why won’t 2028 be the most important election ever? Or 2032? And so on. To make matters worse, there were a significant number of American voters whose lives **didn’t** actually become worse, or noticeably worse, during Trump’s 4 years in office. So now they aren’t afraid of a Trump second term, even if he’d be worse this time than last time. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1002 "2024-07-12T19:37:02Z")
The single best article was shared by @PhillyGuy guy here. > [@2024 Presidential general election: How large and critical is the "unengaged voter" cohort?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-presidential-general-election-how-large-and-critical-is-the-unengaged-voter-cohort/1003776/8): > > I do not know the number of unengaged voters. But, related to this, I think we will again see record turnout this November due to: — The drama seen whenever Trump runs — The drama of Biden’s apparent medical situation (whether or not he drops out) — RFK Jr attracting some who hardly ever vote As to how critical? Anything is critical if the election is close. Here’s the effect: [Thr Unusual Turnout Dynamic](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/29/politics/turnout-2024-election-analysis/index.html) It is one of many though. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1003 "2024-07-12T19:37:52Z")
Yes. There’s also a problem that precisely what is great about Biden (he’s willing to do the boring hard work of endless negotiations and compromise to make sure shit gets done) is… boring. Our culture conditions us to expect a narrative, such as Underdog! (_speed of lightning…_ oh, wait, that’s a different Underdog) or Hero vs Monster! (Trump’s Hercules-style “I will drain the swamp”) or Jesus! (Trump’s “I will save you from mumble mumble at great cost to myself!” That we don’t take our civic duty more seriously is the fault of a number of things: poor civics education, media competition for attention and the ensuing shorter attention spans, the nature of an appeal that works for millions, and goodness knows what else. Biden is the clear choice for anyone who wants the country to work. Trump is a clear choice for anyone whose vote is swayed by an exciting (if vaguely expressed) story, especially ones with deep and even mythological resonances. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1004 "2024-07-12T19:39:33Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > I’ve seen this mentioned several times in recent P&E posts, but have not seen the underlying data. While I don’t want to put you on the spot for a cite, I’d like to place a general appeal to this thread’s readership for assistance in finding out on what the quoted idea is based. Even a hint of a keyword to search or a specific writer or pollster helps. Yeah, I really doubt this. They might vote 3rd party or stay home, however. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1005 "2024-07-12T19:42:19Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > To make matters worse, there were a significant number of American voters whose lives **didn’t** actually become worse, or noticeably worse, during Trump’s 4 years in office. For enough voters, there are other conditions besides “_How was my life going during the Trump years?_” January 6th took place two weeks before Trump left office, and the Dobbs decision took place in summer 2020. The Project 2025 manifesto is beginning to make mainstream news. Conditions on the ground are not the same. Not all voters will be moved by such things, but it doesn’t take a huge percentage to be impactful. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1006 "2024-07-12T19:43:02Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Yeah, I really doubt this. They might vote 3rd party or stay home, however. There’s data this way and that way – collectively, it’s equivocal. ---
**Author:** ![ratatoskK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ratatoskk/32/2987_2.png) [@ratatoskK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ratatoskK)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1007 "2024-07-12T19:52:40Z")
> **[Election 2024 Polls: Biden vs. Trump](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html?unlocked_article_code=1.6k0.v0-7.PPtRv_pOIY0U&smid=url-share)** > > Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1008 "2024-07-12T19:58:31Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > This might be what you were referring to. Yes, that’s what I was referring to. Thanks for the link! ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1009 "2024-07-12T20:00:30Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The single best article was shared by @PhillyGuy guy **[here](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-presidential-general-election-how-large-and-critical-is-the-unengaged-voter-cohort/1003776/8)**. > > It is one of many though. (_my emphasis and compression of link for brevity_) I did see when **PhillyGuy** posted that, but only skimmed the first third of the article or so. This time, I read it through. In brief, the article brings a lot of data and several narratives to bear – it’s actually IMO a good overview of the state-of-play regarding unengaged voters. However, drawing from so many separate sources and quoting so many people … the article overall waters down the message conveyed in the headline – this article, as well, is equivocal. Turn the prism this way and you see one thing. Rotate it and flip it upside down, you see some different thing. Same prism, different perspectives. EDIT: The Nate Cohn/NYT analysis that **ratatoskK** just linked is also featured in the recent MSNBC and CNN links. It made the rounds before the Atlanta debate took over the news cycle. EDIT2: Thanks, everyone, for coming up with links and ground-truthing that at least there was, indeed, some underpinning analysis out there. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1010 "2024-07-12T20:00:45Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > > **American voters have been voting against MAGA and fascism since 2018** , True, at least when looking at presidential elections. In fact, Americans as a whole have been consistently voting against fascism since 1992, with the one exception of 2004. Of course, votes don’t translate directly into political wins, but the sentiment is there. Presidential Total Popular Vote Fraction: > **** > > | Year | (D) | (R) | > | --- | --- | --- | > | 2020 | **51.3%** | 46.8% | > | 2016 | **48.2%** | 46.1% | > | 2012 | **51.1%** | 47.2% | > | 2008 | **52.9%** | 45.7% | > | 2004 | 48.3% | **50.7%** | > | 2000 | **48.4%** | 47.9% | > | 1996 | **49.2%** | 40.7% | > | 1992 | **43.0%** | 37.4% | > | 1988 | 45.6% | **53.4%** | > > Cite: [2020 United States presidential election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) On the other hand, it’s not as clear when looking at Congressional elections. Congressional Total Popular Vote Fraction: > **** > > | Year | (D) | (R) | > | --- | --- | --- | > | 2022 | 47.8% | **50.6%** | > | 2020 | **50.3%** | 47.2% | > | 2018 | **53.4%** | 44.8% | > | 2016 | 48.0% | **49.1%** | > | 2014 | 45.5% | **51.2%** | > | 2012 | **48.8%** | 47.7% | > | 2010 | 44.9% | **51.7%** | > | 2008 | **53.2%** | 42.6% | > | 2006 | **52.3%** | 44.3% | > | 2004 | 46.8% | **49.4%** | > | 2002 | 45.2% | **50.0%** | > | 2000 | 47.1% | **47.6%** | > | 1998 | 47.3% | **48.4%** | > | 1996 | **48.22%** | 48.15% | > | 1994 | 44.7% | **51.5%** | > | 1992 | **50.1%** | 45.1% | > | 1990 | **52.1%** | 44.3% | > | 1988 | **53.3%** | 45.6% | > > Cite: [2022 United States House of Representatives elections - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1011 "2024-07-12T20:05:01Z")
I did my best to point you to the “this way” … what “that way” are you seeing? Can you point me to it please? I’ve looked and am not finding any. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1012 "2024-07-12T20:05:38Z")
ratatoskK Sorry, the NYT is no longer trustworthy on this issue. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1013 "2024-07-12T20:10:58Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I did my best to point you to the “this way” … what “that way” are you seeing? Can you point me to it please? I’ve looked and am not finding any . I can pull quotes later, but the bottom half of **PhillyGuy** ’s link has plenty. You can start with the paragraph midway through that begins “_Michael Madrid, a long-time GOP strategist who has become a fierce Trump critic_ …” and just read down. Might be kind of a Rorschach-inkblot thing going on because of my own priors … but I perceive an ebb-and-flow throughout much of that article. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1014 "2024-07-12T20:18:09Z")
Not mincing words: > **[Democrats in disarray over Biden: ‘We’re totally, totally screwed’](https://www.ft.com/content/7104f221-da21-492b-be5f-2cb3bedefe6f)** > > After the president’s disastrous debate performance, the party has been plunged into a crisis over whether to force him out ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1015 "2024-07-12T20:20:23Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Not mincing words: _Subscribe to unlock this article_ ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1016 "2024-07-12T21:00:43Z")
Here is the relevant bit: > A party that has become used to watching Republican strife over Trump’s leadership is now reckoning with its own mix of division and despair over whether to try and force Biden out. > > “Every single Democrat that I’ve talked to, and I’ve talked to about 1,000 in the past week, every single one thinks the same thing, which is we’re totally, totally screwed,” says one person close to the White House. > > “There’s no way [Biden] can win this election, there’s no way he can prosecute the case against Trump. If it turned into a referendum on Biden, we were always going to lose. And that’s what’s happening,” the person adds. > > To many Democrats, the insularity of the White House and Biden’s inner circle of advisers keeping him in the race and clinging to power is overwhelmingly to blame. > > “I feel like I’m screaming into the void. We are willingly walking into a bear den,” says one party strategist. “We have a team in the presidential space here that has looked at all the options and decided that murder-suicide is the way to go. And it’s pretty terrifying.” ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1017 "2024-07-12T21:08:59Z")
The DNC is like a mate, landlord, parent or boss who says: “Take it or leave it!”, expecting the response to be to take it, and then is gobsmacked when the recipient instead chooses to leave it. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1018 "2024-07-12T21:09:06Z")
> ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1019 "2024-07-12T21:10:38Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The DNC is like a mate, landlord, parent or boss who says: “Take it or leave it!” “The DNC” did not make Biden the nominee nor can they cause him to cease being the nominee. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1020 "2024-07-12T21:22:02Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > “There’s no way [Biden] can win this election, there’s no way he can prosecute the case against Trump … (quoting an anonymous source to the _Financial Times_ article above - b) Interestingly … New York Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado was on Jake Tapper’s CNN program about an hour ago and used much the same wording: “… _prosecute the case against Trump_”. He was a second-term Congressman during the first 16 months of Biden’s term – I wonder if Delgado is the “_source close to the White House_” being quoted? I really need to look for video – Delgado told Tapper that a Manhattan-based pollster now believes that New York is a swing state and no longer safely blue 😐 That’s laying it on a little thick. … **Mr. Spock:** A sustained warp 7 speed will be dangerous, Captain. **Captain Kirk:** Thank you, Mr. Spock. I mean to catch them **Scotty:** We’ll either catch them or we’ll blow up, Captain. They may be faster than we are. ### **Captain Kirk:** They’ll have to prove it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690.md?page=50) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690.md?page=52)