# Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 3, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690 "2024-07-03T16:50:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 59
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1161 "2024-07-13T20:49:03Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > The actual polls cited – every single one – show Biden trailing. Even if the optimistic adjustments in the simulation are valid, Biden is ahead of the convicted felon by a razor-thin margin. And the inescapable fact is that a Democratic Presidential candidate can win ONLY if ahead by 4 to 5 points in the popular vote. The Electoral College advantage Republicans enjoy means that even if Joe managed 3 percentage points ahead in the popular vote, Trump would likely take the White House. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1162 "2024-07-13T20:59:05Z")
[Politico on Biden’s Helmet.](https://www.politico.com/story/2008/08/bidens-helmet-012760) I realize this is an older story, but since the procedure in question was done quite a while back with effects that were remarked upon at the time (per my memory and remarked upon by the quoted article) I’m going to just leave it here. You’re free to disagree of course. But hairlines don’t advance again after years of retreat without help from someone. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1163 "2024-07-13T21:03:26Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > The Electoral College advantage Republicans enjoy means that even if Joe managed 3 percentage points ahead in the popular vote, Trump would likely take the White House. Yup. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% four years ago and then yet still came within a hair’s breadth of losing Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin - the three states that put him over the top. And that was with Biden leading by an average of 8-10% in the summer. Any poll that shows Biden merely leading Trump by 2-3% right now is nothing to celebrate. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1164 "2024-07-13T21:11:45Z")
Alright. I’ll say it. I think we should all count ourselves _extremely_ fortunate that Joe Biden doesn’t react to allegations of, or disparaging comments about, cosmetic procedures in the same way that **[Donald Trump allegedly did](https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/36768/did-ivana-trump-claim-under-oath-that-she-had-been-raped-by-donald-trump)**. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1165 "2024-07-13T21:13:20Z")
All of this is painful, and it’s not surprising that people are looking for comfort. As Bernie Sanders was quoted as saying: > [@DrDeth](#): > > “It’s time to learn a lesson from the progressive and centrist forces in France who, despite profound political differences, came together this week to soundly defeat rightwing extremism.” But Sanders was choosing to de-emphasize crucial facts of the French election, in which the Left succeeded ONLY through coalition—not, as Sanders implied, as an electoral triumph in which voters overwhelmingly embraced the left and rejected the right. A trend that would have voters worldwide decisively rejecting rightwing extremism would certainly be of comfort to US Democrats. But: > [@DSeid](#): > > [in re] the French elections: the Far Right won far more votes than either The New Popular Front or Macron’s centrist group did. It’s like an electoral college win, because the Left and the Center worked together the Left won the most seats. Good. But reading that as a rejection of the Right is over optimistic. Of course Sanders, being of the left himself, chose to interpret the French election in the way most favorable to his own side, by ignoring certain facts about what actually happened. We can’t afford to overlook facts. The Democrat, as mentioned upthread, will have to come out ahead in the popular vote by 4 to 5% in order to beat the GOP Electoral College advantage. Currently, ‘Biden should stay’ advocates are thrilled that he’s even with Trump (or even ‘not that much behind’). This attitude is a blueprint for a Trump win. What do Biden-should-stay advocates believe Biden can do to get anywhere _near_ where he was at this time in 2020? More teleprompter rallies? How will that gain him the points he must have? . . . The Sanders quote comes from: ### [Bernie Sanders backs Biden and urges Democrats to ‘stop the bickering’](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/13/bernie-sanders-biden-democrats) ---
**Author:** ![Oly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oly/32/8255_2.png) [@Oly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oly)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1166 "2024-07-13T21:37:02Z")
The Dems should stop prosecuting the case against Biden and get back to prosecuting the case against Trump. It’s such an easy thing to do. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1167 "2024-07-13T21:42:08Z")
Assuming Biden is behind, what evidence do we have that someone else would be better, apart from “there _should_ or _has to be_”? ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1168 "2024-07-13T21:57:58Z")
> [@Oly](#): > > The Dems should stop prosecuting the case against Biden and get back to prosecuting the case against Trump. It’s such an easy thing to do. It is easy to do, and every time you do it, you remind Trump supporters to vote. See: [Why negative campaigning doesn’t work](https://polarizationresearchlab.org/the-ineffectiveness-of-negative-campaigning/) > [@](#): > > Analysis of 111 studies conducted on negative campaigning through mid-2006 shows no effect on candidate choice or turnout. A jury found that Trump penetrated a woman in a First Avenue department store. Another jury convicted him of 34 felonies. Effect on Trump-Biden polls: Zip. Partisan campaigns cannot do to public opinion what our courts could not. And Democrats criticizing Biden didn’t create any harm to his candidacy independent of the underlying appearance of cognitive issues. If Biden stays in, Democratic House and Senate candidates, at risk of losing their seats, and needing to run ahead of Biden to win, are going to distance themselves from Joe. If they do not, they are more likely to lose. PS. I did NOT say to stop criticizing Trump. He deserves criticism. Just don’t think more criticism of Trump would win elections… ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1169 "2024-07-13T22:01:08Z")
> [@Oly](#): > > The Dems should stop prosecuting the case against Biden and get back to prosecuting the case against Trump. It’s such an easy thing to do. It’s not Dems doing the prosecuting, though, it’s the general public. When the public sees things like that June-27 debate and think “Biden’s too old,” and the Dems insist, “No, he’s not too old, now shut up and vote for him,” that gives off emperor’s-new-clothes vibes and causes a Streisand Effect. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1170 "2024-07-13T22:03:35Z")
Polling so far doesn’t suggest any significant impact. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1171 "2024-07-13T22:11:11Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > And since this > [Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/#:~:text=538%20uses%20polling%2C%20economic%20and,to%20explore%20likely%20election%20outcomes.&text=in%20our%20simulations%20of%20the,of%20no%20Electoral%20College%20winner). > **Biden wins 51 times out of 100** Not exactly a landslide, or even much of a victory margin at all. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1172 "2024-07-13T22:11:17Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > It’s not Dems doing the prosecuting, though, it’s the general public. “The general public” being Wolf Blitzer, Bill Maher, George Clooney, and the New York Times editorial board, of course. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1173 "2024-07-13T22:17:08Z")
> [@Biffster](#): > > Not exactly a landslide, or even much of a victory margin at Indeed it’s not. But it’s an actual data point in a discussion sorely lacking in them, especially when one key point is political viability and whether the current candidate is a good chance. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1174 "2024-07-13T23:05:12Z")
Speaking of Bernie, [this photo with Biden](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4770110-sanders-democrats-drop-calls-biden-withdraw/) provides immense reassurance to voters hesitant over the age issue. Couldn’t have asked for better optics. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1175 "2024-07-13T23:30:43Z")
“Immense” is a little strong. One old man has better posture and combs his hair more effectively. Otherwise, it’s just a photo showing two old men who look old. I don’t think any still photos are going to make a difference: you don’t really show your age in photos the way you do when you half to move or speak on video. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2024, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1176 "2024-07-13T23:57:56Z")
> [@Oly](#): > > The Dems should stop prosecuting the case against Biden and get back to prosecuting the case against Trump. It’s such an easy thing to do. Right. > [@Leaper](#): > > Assuming Biden is behind, what evidence do we have that someone else would be better, apart from “there _should_ or _has to be_”? Harris almost polls as well, and she is the best. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1177 "2024-07-14T00:35:03Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > > [@bordelond](#): > > > > Meanwhile … > > > > [Potentially dozens of Democrats expected to call on Biden to step aside after NATO conference - CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/potentially-dozens-of-democrats-expected-to-call-on-biden-to-step-aside-after-nato-conference/) > > > > > Four Democratic sources with knowledge tell CBS News that **they expect dozens of Democratic lawmakers over the next 48 hours to issue statements calling for President Biden to [step out of the race]** ([Here are the Democratic lawmakers calling for Biden to step aside in the 2024 race - CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-2024-race-democrats-who-want-him-to-step-aside/)). > > > > > > **The planning is coordinated, and some of the statements are pre-written** , according to two sources. And it’s not clear that anything Mr. Biden says in his [high-stakes press conference](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-news-conference-2024-campaign/) Thursday night could redirect the expected course of events. > > I was expecting a flurry this morning. There was a quick three public statements for Biden to step down last night, and then this morning … ??? Welp - we’re at what? Hour 46 or so since the “ **Potentially dozens of Democrats** ” article linked above? I think it ended up being another three or four more Democratic lawmakers (assuming they mean from the U.S. Congress and Senate, not state, county, or municipal legislators). Nowhere near “dozens”, though. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1178 "2024-07-14T01:57:04Z")
The Culture Code for the American presidency is MOSES. Strip away the religious components of the story of Moses, you’ll see that he represents the Code for the American presidency aptly: **a rebellious leader of his people with a strong vision and the will to get them out of trouble**. That’s from a book I just read, [The Culture Code](https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/139174/the-culture-code-by-clotaire-rapaille/) by Cotaire Rapaille. Just feels on point after what happened today for some reason, and relevant to this thread because I think Biden wants to be able to do this, but no longer can as well as he did. And Trump can fake this well. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1179 "2024-07-14T19:36:46Z")
> [@Biffster](#): > > > [@DrDeth](#): > > > > And since this > > [Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/#:~:text=538%20uses%20polling%2C%20economic%20and,to%20explore%20likely%20election%20outcomes.&text=in%20our%20simulations%20of%20the,of%20no%20Electoral%20College%20winner). > > **Biden wins 51 times out of 100** > > Not exactly a landslide, or even much of a victory margin at all. Counter to my expectations, 538 today bumped this up to Biden 52%, Trump 47% (rounded, with an 0.4% chance of a tie). I remind the house that their model is not strictly poll-based. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1180 "2024-07-14T19:53:41Z")
I put more faith in the 538’s predictions than most other polls. What do you think accounts for the Biden bounce? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690.md?page=58) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690.md?page=60)