# Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 3, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690 "2024-07-03T16:50:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 75
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1481 "2024-07-18T20:22:23Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > Honestly this feels like talking to a Trump supporter. Trump supporters stand by their candidate. Would that Democrats could do the same. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1482 "2024-07-18T20:22:49Z")
> [@MulderMuffin](#): > > I’m no fan of Harris. She completely failed to impress me during the presidential race in 2016. Running against a bunch of political allies/friends is one thing, running against a vile human scumbag who wants to destroy America is a whole 'nother. I think she can rise to the task, and can even learn from Hillary’s mistakes eight years ago. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1483 "2024-07-18T20:23:59Z")
One thing that switching might do is give some energy to the Democratic races overall and help the down ballot races from all the media coverage of the switch. There would be endless interviews with Democratic talking heads and candidates talking about all of the accomplishments of the Biden/Harris team and the Democrats in general. Even if Harris didn’t win, the circus around the switch would give lots of exposure to down ballot Democratic candidates who might not otherwise get screen time. ---
**Author:** ![ASanders](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asanders/32/3367_2.png) [@ASanders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ASanders)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1484 "2024-07-18T20:27:03Z")
> [@MulderMuffin](#): > > She will retain the core Democratic voters that will vote for absolutely anyone running against trump and almost certainly gain a lot of fence sitters who would have stayed home rather than vote for Biden. To be fair, she might lose some who feel squicky about voting for a woman. But an overall gain, I believe. > > I hate that it’s come to this. Biden has been a great president and is a wonderful man. Fairly or unfairly, he just doesn’t have the confidence of a large part the electorate any more. He needs to face that with as much grace as he is known to have and step aside so trump can be defeated. I discounted Harris back in 2020 because I assumed she was unelectable as a woman of color. Then someone reminded me that her husband is Jewish. Three strikes! But I have come to appreciate her as VP and fully believe she has well earned the handoff should Joe decide he has to step down. The Democratic Party has absolutely zero leg to stand on to make any other selection and I hope very much Joe is holding them hostage to it. The good news is that for all that there are loads of people who might feel squicky about voting for a woman, a person of color, or someone married to a Jew (or gads, all three!!) there are millions of young people who DON’T CARE or who might even LIKE these ideas. I know my kids (23 and 25) relish the thought. Maybe Harris would actually get the attention of people who really would have stayed home. ---
**Author:** ![MulderMuffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldermuffin/32/2862_2.png) [@MulderMuffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MulderMuffin)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1485 "2024-07-18T20:30:05Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > > [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > > > The incumbency advantage is pretty weak in recent years. > > Cite? With data? Because in congress there are a huge number of safe seats. The last Presidential incumbent who lost was Trump in 2020, but he’s an historically weird candidate. From a different topic in the board, but apropos. > [@How much credence do you put in Allan Lichtman and his "Keys To The White House"?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-credence-do-you-put-in-allan-lichtman-and-his-keys-to-the-white-house/1004434/2): > > Also, bear in mind that in the past half-century, incumbent presidents have lost just as many times (4) as they’ve won (4). Ford, Carter, Bush Sr. and Trump lost. Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr. and Obama won. So a 4-4 record suggests that incumbent advantage doesn’t mean all that much anyway. Incumbency as it relates to the White House looks like a complete toss-up. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1486 "2024-07-18T20:43:20Z")
Here is Nate Silver writing about it. There is little turnover more due to how partisan seats are then incumbency. > **[The incumbency advantage is disappearing. Maybe it's the algorithms' fault.](https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-incumbency-advantage-is-disappearing)** > > Voters constantly hear that the world is in a state of crisis. It isn't a surprise that they're kicking out incumbents. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1487 "2024-07-18T20:58:58Z")
Guys, Biden is going to be outa there soon, no question. His hanging on to this extent has a whiff of–no wait, stinks of–no wait, it actually _reeks_ of Trumpian delusion and vanity. It’s sad and disorienting to see. I have been a Biden supporter. I think he was the ideal president for the time in which he has served. I dismissed the constant harping about his age and supposed cognitive decline as mere partisan attacks by the opposition, who we know has no empathy or even basic civility. I felt justified in my opinion, jazzed even, by the SOTU address. Fuckin’-A! That all crashed and burned during the debate. I am genuinely _pissed_ that Biden’s handlers let him get this far in such a shape, and at the man himself for not being a better judge of his own capabilities. Knowing what we know now, how can we not say that it was folly for him to run again in the first place? Here’s the undeniable thing, and if Biden denies it in his own head he’s either demented or a dumbass: the guy is barely capable now of speaking coherently, so he’s not going to last another year in the job of president. _No fucking way._ Pretending otherwise or clutching pearls about the issue is just as fucked up as all the denial that Trumpers have for their Orange Christ. Harris is great. I’ve always been a fan. Yes, she can kick Trump’s ass. Having her step in now will completely dissipate the opposition’s mojo and generate lots of genuine excitement for our side. Hell, I think she should choose Gretchen Whitmer and make it an all-female ticket. Doing that would _delete_ any remaining fascist mojo and fuck with their heads in a major, demoralizing way. Then, when she wins, we’ll have a _young_ president who’s ready to kick ass in every direction–someone who’s not beholden to the worn-out templates of which Biden is still largely a captive. What’s not to dig?! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1488 "2024-07-18T21:08:27Z")
Also, Harris is the _only_ choice. She’s VP for Og’s sake. If Biden resigns now, which he absolutely should do, she gets to run as the incumbent. She’s the obvious, near-frictionless choice. Contrariwise, trying to pick someone else will justifiably piss off Black people, especially Black women. It sends a shit message, that we are not confident in the person whose _job_ was to take over from Biden in the event of extreme circumstances–such as the ones we face right now. That’s why I think Whitmer is the perfect choice for VP: now is not the time for traditional beige Democratic caution. Now is the time for boldness! Needless to say, I think Harris should come out guns a-blazing, down and dirty, and tear the fascist party the biggest new asshole possible. Harris is also the perfect foil for Trump: “I’ve prosecuted plenty of scumbag criminals like you.” ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1489 "2024-07-18T21:14:01Z")
Well, Joe won in 2020. He accomplished something. He is unpopular because people now see him as weak. They want a forceful leader. Politics…yes!!!..has very little with presidential votes. Policy is minimally in the background. Achievements…50% of voters could not name a Biden win. They are simply voting for the alpha male, That is Trump. But…males can really screw up in an election as well. Use that against Trump. Kamala can debate him quite well. Biden failed to assess the debate. It was never about facts or policy. So yes, he showed age there. Plus he can’t work with a 2 minute clock. Kamala can. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1490 "2024-07-18T21:14:05Z")
The plot thickens: - [Behind the Curtain: Top Dems now believe Biden will exit](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats) > Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade [President Biden](https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/joe-biden) to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1491 "2024-07-18T21:16:04Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Contrariwise, trying to pick someone else will justifiably piss off Black people, especially Black women. You know what else is gonna piss off black people? Forcing Biden to quit. [https://thehill.com/homenews/race-politics/4780486-black-women-biden-harris-letter/](https://thehill.com/homenews/race-politics/4780486-black-women-biden-harris-letter/) ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1492 "2024-07-18T21:16:50Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > You know what else is gonna piss off black people? Forcing Biden to quit. He won’t say he was forced out (and indeed, he couldn’t be). Everyone will get in line behind Harris. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1493 "2024-07-18T21:18:43Z")
Joe is incapacitated at this point. I don’t know what happened, but the debate _never_ should have happened. Maybe he was declining–and then fell off a cliff. That’s what happened with my 81-year-old mother. She had fallen a few times and then suddenly she was falling _all the time._ She went into independent living, seemed to be doing better, but then died eight months later this past February. Really, why are we having this conversation at all? 80-year-olds shouldn’t be running for president, period! And it’s not because they can’t start off great at that age; it’s because they can in no way guarantee their health or even their life will last for four years. It’s just ridiculous, and Biden was vain and stupid for running again. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1494 "2024-07-18T21:19:13Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Everyone will get in line behind Harris. Of course. If there’s one thing the last month has demonstrated it’s that Democrats always fall in line with their candidate. 🙄 ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1495 "2024-07-18T21:21:55Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Of course. If there’s one thing the last month has demonstrated it’s thaf Democrats always fall in line with their candidate. 🙄 Is the point that Dems haven’t fallen in line behind Biden? Well yeah–the dude was _catastrophically incapable_ during the debate! And he’s continued to fuck up and flub since then. Add to that the fact that his polling and approval rating was unimpressive at best, and you’ve got the perfect recipe for _get the fuck out._ ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1496 "2024-07-18T21:24:16Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > You know what else is gonna piss off black people? Forcing Biden to quit. Unless Biden is a pissy dick about it, which he won’t be, then I think Black people, like everyone else, will understand that Biden is leaving because of cognitive issues and overall health. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1497 "2024-07-18T21:27:30Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Is the point that Dems haven’t fallen in line behind Biden? And they won’t fall in line behind Harris either. After two weeks have passed and she’s failed to magically assume a 30-point lead in the polls, the same doomers that have betrayed Biden will turn on her too. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1498 "2024-07-18T21:29:26Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Also, Harris is the _only_ choice. She’s VP for Og’s sake. If Biden resigns now, which he absolutely should do, she gets to run as the incumbent. She’s the obvious, near-frictionless choice. > > Contrariwise, trying to pick someone else will justifiably piss off Black people, especially Black women. It sends a shit message, that we are not confident in the person whose _job_ was to take over from Biden in the event of extreme circumstances–such as the ones we face right now. I think there is a MUCH bigger reason for Harris…she would immediately have access to the Biden election campaign money…which is a lot. I am not clear on the ins-and-outs but it is my understanding that money cannot just be handed to someone else (other than Harris because she is already part of the Biden campaign). ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1499 "2024-07-18T21:30:26Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > After two weeks have passed and she’s failed to magically assume a 30-point lead in the polls, the same doomers that have betrayed Biden will turn on her too. People are waiting until it’s official. The polls will move when the announcement is made, not before. The doomers will be anxious, but that’s probably a good thing. No complacency this time. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1500 "2024-07-18T21:32:45Z")
I totally disagree. First of all, Harris’s current polling is _excellent._ Second, Biden had solid support until the debate. Doomers appeared precisely because he shit the bed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690.md?page=74) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690.md?page=76)