# Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 3, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690 "2024-07-03T16:50:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 92
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1830 "2024-07-19T20:23:41Z")
Aren’t most RFK supporters Trump-leaning? It’s doubtful many of them would vote for Robert F Kennedy on Election Day, so if they defect to Trump when it’s actually time to mark their ballots, that might mean Trump actually has a larger lead over Biden than that graph shows. It’s possible that the majority of RFK’s 8 percent would go to Trump, padding Trump by an extra one or two percent on Election Night. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1831 "2024-07-19T20:28:14Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Aren’t most RFK supporters Trump-leaning? Probably? AIUI, part of the concern over his candidacy is that low-information moderates or liberals may vote for him based on (a) name recognition, or (b) dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1832 "2024-07-19T20:32:03Z")
I think they are fairly evenly split. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1833 "2024-07-19T20:55:33Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > I honestly cannot believe how badly the democrats are fucking this up. With how terrifying a Trump presidency is, this is extremely concerning. Biden and his team are the ones who fucked up and put an emergency on his party’s plate. Biden has been arrogant and vain. He was asked in an interview how he would feel if he stayed in and lost to Trump. He said that he’d be okay with it because he’d done his best. That’s about the worst, most clueless answer possible. > [@](#): > > Given that reality, what should the Democrats do? In my mind, there are exactly two good options. Building on what other posters have already said, I’d say that things are moving so quickly that, yeah, the Dems have already been through this process, and Biden has stayed in the race thus far because he’s been a vain, clue-free dick about it. That’s been very obvious from his offended, belligerent tone about the whole thing–as though he’s unwilling to recognize the problem in the first place. I think the Democrats have been handling this about as well as anyone could have. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1834 "2024-07-19T21:02:22Z")
Good article on this topic: > **[Democrats Have a Two-Biden Problem](https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/democrats-two-biden-problem/)** > > And so does the president. As he decides his future, Joe Biden has to come to terms with the war within himself. **It’s clear that spite acts as emotional rocket fuel for Biden. It’s a character trait that has served him well on many occasions, allowing him to pick himself up after being knocked down by life, and giving him the stamina for a long career.** **But at this moment, this bunkered-down and spite-infested personality is a liability. It’s the character trait that stands in the way of Biden’s making a rational decision to put his party and country above his personal desire for vindication.** I’ve read multiple articles on different Liberal sites saying more or less the same thing. Biden is being a dick. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1835 "2024-07-19T21:08:55Z")
There’s one thing I haven’t seen in the polls, and that’s voter passion. In a country where voter turnout in Presidential elections generally hangs around 50%-55%, 2020’s 63% was an outlier, and a repudiation of Trump. But how many of those Biden voters in 2020 are now saying, he’s too old, he’s the same old thing, I’m not really better off than I was four years ago, or whatever tired excuse voters users use for not voting? Say what you will about Trump, when voters say they’re going to vote for him, they turn out. My question is not whether Biden is more or less popular than he was, but is he as capable of turning that support into actual votes. Will voters turn out for Biden? Can Harris generate more enthusiasm and drive turnout higher? Would an open convention unify Dems behind a new candidate, or tear the party apart? I suspect the Democratic Party has some data on this that the public polls either aren’t gathering or aren’t giving out to the public. But I’ll be damned if I can guess what it says. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1836 "2024-07-19T21:11:08Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Biden has been arrogant and vain. He was asked in an interview how he would feel if he stayed in and lost to Trump. He said that he’d be okay with it because he’d done his best. That’s about the worst, most clueless answer possible. Used to be, we would call that kind of maturity “presidential”. What would you rather hear him say? “I’d instruct Kamala not to certify the election results that show that Trump won, and I’d send a mob to the capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power”? ---
**Author:** ![GulfTiger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e79b87/32.png) [@GulfTiger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GulfTiger)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1837 "2024-07-19T21:13:36Z")
I hope Joe hangs tough. After all, he’s got a democracy to save. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1838 "2024-07-19T21:13:38Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Biden has been arrogant and vain. He was asked in an interview how he would feel if he stayed in and lost to Trump. He said that he’d be okay with it because he’d done his best. That’s about the worst, most clueless answer possible. And what, pray tell, is the “correct” answer? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1839 "2024-07-19T21:15:20Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > > [@Aeschines](#): > > > > Biden has been arrogant and vain. He was asked in an interview how he would feel if he stayed in and lost to Trump. He said that he’d be okay with it because he’d done his best. That’s about the worst, most clueless answer possible. > > Used to be, we would call that kind of maturity “presidential”. > > What would you rather hear him say? “I’d instruct Kamala not to certify the election results that show that Trump won, and I’d send a mob to the capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power”? I think the problem is more that Biden was implying that there was no consequence to a Democratic defeat except merely a personal defeat for **him** (Biden,) as if this were nothing but a round of golf and nothing at stake except bragging rights. Whereas there are many millions of people - in America and out of it - whose lives could turn much worse if Trump wins - and Biden’s refusal to drop out could be the reason that Trump wins. The consequences of this election are immense. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1840 "2024-07-19T21:15:34Z")
Uh, probably acknowledging the stakes, and contrition that he didn’t rise to the occasion. Remorse that dropping out might have avoided electing a man that previously attempted to end democracy in the US? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1841 "2024-07-19T21:17:57Z")
I would guess also that whichever party is out of power at the moment tends to have more motivation to vote and retake what they lost, than the party that is in power has to vote and keep what they have. But I haven’t seen any studies on the topic. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1842 "2024-07-19T21:18:35Z")
The reason that answer was shit because he was making it about himself. The Nation article cited it above, and other sites have said this, but Joe Biden’s myth in his head about being the scrappy kid from Scranton who never gives up and beats the odds and the naysayers has been Biden’s primary “input” in making this decision–and not the good of his party and his country. His ego and offense at being challenged has been on full display since the debate. It’s unseemly and revealing of a big character flaw. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1843 "2024-07-19T21:19:21Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > > > So far, the polls don’t indicate that Trump’s lead has widened. > > Not true. There’s been a noticeable bump recently: > [Imgur: The magic of the Internet](https://i.imgur.com/SIo8Twh.png) Ever since the disastrous debate, Trump has been consistently ahead, in a situation where the Democratic candidate needs to be at least 5 to 7 points ahead. The **only** prediction that had Biden ahead by a very slim margin was the one that basically ignored all the polls and went almost entirely with a simulation based on fundamentals, an unproven and probably very unreliable approach. Biden’s intransigence here is really pissing me off. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1844 "2024-07-19T21:20:00Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I think the problem is more that Biden was implying that there was no consequence to a Democratic defeat except merely a personal defeat for **him** (Biden,) as if this were nothing but a round of golf and nothing at stake except bragging rights. Yeah, I can tell that some people are really stretching to read it that way. I don’t understand _why_, though. Again, what kind of answer do you want him to give? “I’ll be up all night worrying about our democracy”? Sorry, but Joe Biden, the politician from the 80s, is just not your guy if you’re looking for that kind of rhetoric; try someone born after the end of WW2 if that’s what you’re looking for. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1845 "2024-07-19T21:22:17Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Biden’s intransigence here is really pissing me off. Me too. And guys, it would be one thing, and a reassuring thing, if Biden had been cool about the challenges to his candidacy. If he had been genial, understanding of perspectives not his own, and just nice. He hasn’t been! He’s been entitled, belligerent, angry, and obstinate. This _attitude_ is as bad a sign as his constant gaffes and mistakes. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1846 "2024-07-19T21:24:04Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > The **only** prediction that had Biden ahead by a very slim margin was the one that basically ignored all the polls and went almost entirely with a simulation based on fundamentals It’s actually even worse than that. The 538 prediction depended on the fundamentals being _underestimated_ due to state-to-state correlations. If you just crank the knob so that fundamentals count for 100% and polls count for 0%, it’s still not enough. You have to assume the fundamentals have been undercounted as well. Easy to see in their Wisconsin forecast: [![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2f8368b1-9bef-4bf9-b581-7e4799866120_1600x1146.png) ](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2f8368b1-9bef-4bf9-b581-7e4799866120_1600x1146.png) The “full forecast” is better than either the polls or the fundamentals-only! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1847 "2024-07-19T21:25:42Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Again, what kind of answer do you want him to give? “I would very much regret having miscalculated, since the result of that miscalculation would be dire indeed. But I do feel, right now, that the decision I’m making is the best for the country. And that’s what’s most important–not my personal ambitions.” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1848 "2024-07-19T21:28:28Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Again, what kind of answer do you want him to give? Multiple possible options. The kind of answer would include disappointment that the country chose a vision for our future that is beneath us; and disappointment that we as a team were unable to make those starkly different visions clear enough. I did my best and that’s all that matters? That’s the right answer for a grade school baseball player; not for the future of our country and world. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1849 "2024-07-19T21:31:45Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Remorse that dropping out might have avoided electing a man that previously attempted to end democracy in the US? …for real? You expect the person running for office to say “well, maybe I’m not the best man for the job, I guess you’ll have to roll the dice and find out”? You DO realize he is running for office, right? Biden’s contention - the contention of _anyone_ running for candidacy as president - is, and should be, that _he is the best person for the job of beating his opponent_. In any question he answers, that is going to be assumed - it would be monumentally stupid for him to answer any question in any other way - and if he was the best candidate, and he lost anyways, the correct answer _is_ to respect the democratic process. > [@Aeschines](#): > > The reason that answer was shit because he was making it about himself. Bullshit. I’ve seen a ton of people and outlets make this claim (I was driving with my wife yesterday and we listened to Vox’s Today Explained make that point, and I paused the podcast to rant about what bullshit nonsense that was) and it is incredibly weak. If people weren’t desperate to build this “Joe Biden of all fucking people is a megalomaniac” narrative that they grasped at any possible straw, we would _never_ be having this kind of converstion about that nothingburger turn of phrase. Give me a break. > [@Aeschines](#): > > Joe Biden’s myth in his head about being the scrappy kid from Scranton who never gives up and beats the odds and the naysayers has been Biden’s primary “input” in making this decision–and not the good of his party and his country. Interesting how in 2017 it was incredibly unethical to speculate about the president’s mental state, but now we are all freely writing endless narratives about Joe Biden’s supposed delusions. > [@Aeschines](#): > > His ego and offense at being challenged has been on full display since the debate. It’s unseemly and revealing of a big character flaw. Or, he knew that he was the best candidate to take on Trump, and moving on from a stumble with as much decorum as possible is the only possible way for him to have recovered. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690.md?page=91) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690.md?page=93)