# Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Tags:** trump
**Created:** [July 3, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690 "2024-07-03T16:50:05Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 97
### Author:  [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1930 "2024-07-20T01:51:36Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> That’s exactly what I’m claiming. It’s been clear to anyone who’s paying attention that there’s a pro-Trump bias baked into the polls this year. He barely scraped 50% in primaries where the polls had him winning with 80% or more.
But primaries are an entirely different beast. The valid standard of comparison is what the general election polls showed in 2020 and what they’re showing now. What they’re showing now, taking all factors into account including the EC bias, is virtually certain doom for the Democrats if Biden stays in.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1931 "2024-07-20T01:58:08Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#):
>
> Doesn’t seem like past races have been mnearly as entrenched as the current one.
That’s the point. It is very entrenched. The horrible debate, the public fighting about trying to get Biden to step down? Hasn’t moved his support much. A news cycle that includes _both_ a murder attempt and a convention moves some undecideds over to Trump to a total of only under 2% of a bounce.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1932 "2024-07-20T01:59:32Z")
> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> But primaries are an entirely different beast. The valid standard of comparison is what the general election polls showed in 2020 and what they’re showing now.
Let’s not forget the “red tsunami” of 2022 that wasn’t and the multiple special elections Democrats have won in spite of polling. We have an entire thread dedicated to exploring why the polls are favoring Republicans and I won’t reiterate it all here except to say that phone polling is no longer viable for getting an accurate read on what the public thinks about anything.
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### Author:  [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1933 "2024-07-20T02:03:01Z")
I think so. Stamina, Biden cannot campaign very much. Trump can better, but not too much more.
Harris can knock out 12hr days for months getting her message out, with clarity, day after day in town after town.
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### Author:  [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1934 "2024-07-20T02:04:02Z")
Again, this isn’t just about polls. Even in actual _election results,_ Trump only lost to Hillary by 2% and to Biden by 4% in the popular vote. In other words, nearly **half** of this nation does, in fact, find the horrible Trump preferable to the excellent Biden. That’s not polling, that’s actual voting.
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### Author:  [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1935 "2024-07-20T02:06:30Z")
Mrs. Vance was born in 1960( may be 1 year off).
Kamala was born in 1964.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1936 "2024-07-20T02:13:14Z")
> [@Velocity](#):
>
> Even in actual _election results,_ Trump only lost to Hillary by 2% and to Biden by 4% in the popular vote. In other words, nearly **half** of this nation does, in fact, find the horrible Trump preferable to the excellent Biden. That’s not polling, that’s actual voting.
So the results show that Biden is more popular than Trump, and therefore Biden should drop out?
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### Author:  [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1937 "2024-07-20T02:14:26Z")
The polls were damn accurate in 2022. Polling has basically never had an error as big as you are expecting. You can believe whatever you want, but you can’t expect to convince anyone if you ignore objective data.
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### Author:  [@Sylvanz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sylvanz)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1938 "2024-07-20T02:15:40Z")
I know, right? It makes you wonder if these people have even seen Biden. Or maybe it’s a way to assuage guilt? If you imagine him into being an egotistical baby, you don’t have to feel bad about diagnosing/calling him: senile, doddering, feeble, etc.etc.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1939 "2024-07-20T02:19:25Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#):
>
> The polls were damn accurate in 2022.
Really? Republicans picked up 25 seats in the House and won a Senate majority?
> **[Midterm Predictions: The ‘Red Tsunami’ Comes into View Once More | National...](https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/midterm-predictions-the-red-tsunami-comes-into-view-once-more/)**
>
> Now that we’re at the election’s eve, I think we’re on the higher end of a red-wave year, and approaching ‘red tsunami’ territory.
[https://www.axios.com/2022/10/23/republican-wave-midterms-congress](https://www.axios.com/2022/10/23/republican-wave-midterms-congress)
> [@](#):
>
> Polling, spending trends and conversations with leading Democratic and Republican strategists suggest it’s now very possible House Republicans win back the majority on Nov. 8 with more than 20 House seats — once the upper range of most analysts’ projections.
>
> The big picture: Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers. In the Senate, Republican officials are now bullish they’ll gain at least the one seat necessary to regain the majority.
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### Author:  [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1940 "2024-07-20T02:22:45Z")
> [@CoolHandCox](#):
>
> I think so. Stamina, Biden cannot campaign very much. Trump can better, but not too much more.
>
> Harris can knock out 12hr days for months getting her message out, with clarity, day after day in town after town.
I don’t think that general election campaigning actually moves the needle. Undecided voters do not go to in person general election events to decide who to vote for. They used to, before television and event security, but not now. Because it takes so long to get through security, the only people who are going to the events are prior adherents to that candidate.
However, if voters know that a candidate is limited in how often they can travel or speak, due to physical, or, worse, cognitive challenges, that is a political problem.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1941 "2024-07-20T02:28:46Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> I don’t think that general election campaigning actually moves the needle. Undecided voters do not go to in person general election events to decide who to vote for.
It does however make local news. The event is covered. Highlights are played. It revs up local enthusiasm and ground game. Supporters show but then they are also more devoted to selling the candidate.
I think it matters.
For Harris the limiting factor may be security more than her stamina, and that may reduce her advantage over Trump on that count some.
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### Author:  [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1942 "2024-07-20T02:33:40Z")
Yeah really. Sure their was plenty of commentary that didn’t pay that much attention to the polling and predicted a big wave, and the results were very much in line with the final polling numbers. If 2022 is your example of a polling miss Biden is in huge trouble. [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/)
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### Author:  [@Sylvanz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sylvanz)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1943 "2024-07-20T02:35:01Z")
So, did you watch the debate? And @octopus he was looking at the moderators. He tends to look at who is talking interviewing. It was a mistake to put him stage right.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1944 "2024-07-20T02:36:44Z")
I’m not sure how a source that says polls in the last three weeks of the election were off by an average of 5 points is supposed to prove that the polls in July are super-accurate.
By that reckoning, this race is well within the margin of error.
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### Author:  [@Sylvanz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sylvanz)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1945 "2024-07-20T02:38:00Z")
They like to remind us they’ve read Shakespeare.
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### Author:  [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1946 "2024-07-20T02:40:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#):
>
> It does however make local news. The event is covered.
True. And often by Sinclair stations that will filter what the Democrats said, or be sure to include a GOP response.
> [@DSeid](#):
>
> It revs up local enthusiasm and ground game. Supporters show but then they are also more devoted to selling the candidate.
There probably is something to this. Local party leaders do not like it when their city is ignored. However, a similar effect might be achieved if the presidential candidate forgoes the campaign visit and gives the cost of the visit to local candidates. There are limits in how much money they give, but the limits might be overcome by sending money through the DNC.
This is another reason why it would be better if Biden resigns than just drops out. If Harris was the President, everyone would know she was too busy to be constantly flying to 12 hour a day swing state events where even she may make a nationally publicized gaffe.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1947 "2024-07-20T02:44:23Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> If Harris was the President, everyone would know she was too busy to be constantly flying to 12 hour a day swing state events where even she may make a nationally publicized gaffe.
Biden is the president, therefore everyone knows he’s too busy to be constantly flying to 12 hour a day swing state events where even he may make a nationally publicized gaffe.
Right?
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1948 "2024-07-20T02:49:16Z")
>
THIS is what the people are saying about Biden. Not “he looks old” or “OMG he said we have beaten Medicare he’s clearly lost his mind” or “I’m voting for the guy with the cool picture”.
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### Author:  [@Sylvanz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sylvanz)
#### Post date: [July 20, 2024, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1949 "2024-07-20T02:49:58Z")
I knew that when that letter was mentioned that someone here would claim, some version of: "they didn’t mean it/they have to say that in public/they’d vote for Harris. Inailed it.
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