# Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump\
**Created:** [July 3, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690 "2024-07-03T16:50:05Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 1485

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**Author:** ![MulderMuffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldermuffin/32/2862_2.png) [@MulderMuffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MulderMuffin)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/1485 "2024-07-18T20:30:05Z")

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> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#):
>
> > [@Hawkeyeop](#):
> >
> > The incumbency advantage is pretty weak in recent years.
> 
> Cite? With data? Because in congress there are a huge number of safe seats. The last Presidential incumbent who lost was Trump in 2020, but he’s an historically weird candidate.

From a different topic in the board, but apropos.

> [@How much credence do you put in Allan Lichtman and his "Keys To The White House"?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-credence-do-you-put-in-allan-lichtman-and-his-keys-to-the-white-house/1004434/2):
>
> Also, bear in mind that in the past half-century, incumbent presidents have lost just as many times (4) as they’ve won (4). Ford, Carter, Bush Sr. and Trump lost. Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr. and Obama won. So a 4-4 record suggests that incumbent advantage doesn’t mean all that much anyway.

Incumbency as it relates to the White House looks like a complete toss-up.

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