# Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump\
**Created:** [July 3, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690 "2024-07-03T16:50:05Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 990

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\
**Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690/990 "2024-07-12T17:57:53Z")

</div>

> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> I have not come across a plausible explanation for why 2024 should be different, in term of Trump polling undercount, than 2016 and 2020.

Plausibly, Trump is likely locked in to around 46.5 - 47.0 percent of the voters in the 2024 general election. There are a lot of inputs for that: Trump’s popular-vote percentages in 2016 (46.1) and 2020 (46.8); his rolling aggregate in RealClear Polling (**[vacillating between 44.6 and 47.8](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden)**, with the mean for the year around 46.5); July 2024 polls via FiveThirtyEight **[sticking firm around 43% - 44%](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo)**.

Now, I’m aware that’s popular vote, not Electoral College counts. I’m merely using the popular-vote poll results to demonstrate that Trump’s popular-vote percentage is apparently baked-in at a certain level. In popular-vote polling, he never quite arm-wrestles Biden’s hand down to the table – he never jumps out to a 55% poll result, say. Trump’s support, plausibly, is firmly-buttressed but inelastic.

Now, fair or not, I’m going to look at different polling figures for Biden – battleground state-level polls that FiveThirtyEight incorporates into their state-level predictions (because fewer state-level polls are done, I have to go back to the beginning of June to have a decent sample). A common theme is that the state polls have something like 8-15 percentage points dedicated to either other third-party candidates or to “undecided”. Trump’s battleground-state percentages,meanwhile, are about in line with his national polling

**[Pennsylvania](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/pennsylvania/)**  
**[Michigan](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/michigan/)**  
**[Wisconsin](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/wisconsin/)**

Even in battleground states that FiveThityEight currently projects Trump to carry, Trump’s poll results aren’t better – Biden’s are just lower and the “third-party/undecided” percentages are higher:

**[Georgia](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/georgia/)**  
**[Arizona](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/arizona/)**  
**[Nevada](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/nevada/)**  
**[North Carolina](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/north-carolina/)**

Now. To me, it’s plausible that there’s still an underlying “_never Trump, but not Biden yet_” component in the polling. That is, Biden’s poll numbers aren’t capturing some percentage of voters that will still vote “Biden” when push comes to shove in November. In answering a poll, it costs nothing to beg off of Biden. Once it’s November 5th … you’ve made the effort to get to the voting booth, the curtain’s drawn, you know you’re in a battleground state, you already know you very much don’t want Trump in office – the calculus is very different.

I believe it’s plausible that the last-minute calculus shifts end up favoring Biden because it’s demonstrated to my satisfaction that his support is more elastic than Trump’s. Or it can be viewed from the opposite perspective – that Biden’s non-support is mushier.

---

_[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-drops-out/1003690)._