# Biden / Trump first debate: possible outcomes and impact on election odds

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-trump-first-debate-possible-outcomes-and-impact-on-election-odds/1003422>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump\
**Created:** [June 27, 2024, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-trump-first-debate-possible-outcomes-and-impact-on-election-odds/1003422 "2024-06-27T23:25:42Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 5\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\
**Post date:** [June 27, 2024, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-trump-first-debate-possible-outcomes-and-impact-on-election-odds/1003422/1 "2024-06-27T23:25:43Z")

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My thinking is that the possible outcomes are

1. Both handle the questions relatively well
  - Odds remain unchanged

2. Trump has several deranged answers, Biden is ~OK
  - Some independents swing to Biden
  - Odds move slightly in Biden’s favor

3. Biden has several ‘senior moments’ and bad answers, Trump is ~OK
  - Tons of independents swing to either Trump, or towards not voting
  - Odds move strongly in Trump’s favor

4. Both Biden and Trump have a disastrous night
  - Odds remain unchanged

Any other outcomes? Do you agree with the list above?

If the above list correct, Biden has more riding on this debate than Trump

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**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\
**Post date:** [June 27, 2024, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-trump-first-debate-possible-outcomes-and-impact-on-election-odds/1003422/2 "2024-06-27T23:43:52Z")

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I will guess 2.

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**Author:** ![Ulysses](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulysses/32/16083_2.png) [@Ulysses](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulysses)\
**Post date:** [June 27, 2024, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-trump-first-debate-possible-outcomes-and-impact-on-election-odds/1003422/3 "2024-06-27T23:49:54Z")

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Same here. We’ve seen this show before. It’s always been that. No reason to expect anything different.

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**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\
**Post date:** [June 28, 2024, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-trump-first-debate-possible-outcomes-and-impact-on-election-odds/1003422/4 "2024-06-28T00:37:01Z")

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1. People are not watching nor do they care or know there is a debate tonight.

Late: this is not a knock on your post. Just me trying to find a place to watch in public and realizing I’m going to have to go home to do it.

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**Author:** ![DaveUnknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/94ad74/32.png) [@DaveUnknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaveUnknown)\
**Post date:** [June 28, 2024, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-trump-first-debate-possible-outcomes-and-impact-on-election-odds/1003422/5 "2024-06-28T00:50:29Z")

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Trump will (might) answer questions with as few words as possible, then just make random baseless claims and attacks about the “Biden crime family” and “corrupt/evil democrats” and go on to say how he will MAGA and try and spin HIS schtick as absolutely necessary to “Save America.”

No effects to people’s votes.