# Biden's Running Mate Prediction Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 14, 2020, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482 "2020-03-14T15:59:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2020, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/21 "2020-03-14T22:24:15Z")
I remain rooting for Tammy Baldwin, Senator of Wisconsin. A solid progressive in the pragmatist mode. An actual resume on rural issues and winning rural voters. (Inclusive of [flipping](https://inthesetimes.com/article/21582/tammy-baldwin-dark-money-the-koch-brothers-ALEC-midterms-blue-wave) “17 of the rural counties that had voted for Trump.”) Female. Young enough (58). And Wisconsin is a hang-in-the-balance state that might be on knife’s edge. While the home state advantage of a VP is not _huge_ it is [real.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-overrated-vice-presidential-home-state-effect/) > [@](#): > > On average since 1920, he has produced a net gain of only about two percentage points for the top of the ticket in his home state. > > As usual, there are several qualifications and limitations to this analysis. First, the gain produced by the vice presidential candidate has been slightly larger in recent years — about four points on average rather than two in elections since 1984. That could just be a statistical fluke, although it could also represent the fact that vice presidential nominees have taken on a higher profile than they once did. > > Second, it may be that some types of vice presidential nominees produce more of an effect than others. Current governors or senators have produced a slightly larger gain on average (about 3 rather than 1.5) than those who were no longer in office, or who were U.S. representatives and therefore represented a Congressional district rather than the whole state. 2 to 4 points in a key state like Wisconsin could be the election one way or the other. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2020, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/22 "2020-03-14T22:41:59Z")
Here’s the top ten Dem VP nominees according to [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5883/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination) based on last traded price. ```auto 1 Kamala Harris $0.28 2 Amy Klobuchar $0.21 3 Stacey Abrams $0.15 4 Elizabeth Warren $0.08 5 Hillary Clinton $0.05 6 Tammy Duckworth $0.04 7 C. Cortez Masto $0.04 8 Michelle Obama $0.04 9 Pete Buttigieg $0.03 10 Val Demings $0.03 ``` Most have been mentioned in this thread. Some are ridiculous. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2020, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/23 "2020-03-14T22:57:07Z")
Get the military on board with a seasoned female politician with at least one star on her shoulder. Bonus points if she also happens to be a person of color. Military brass at least hates Trump for betraying allies, messing with the chain of command, pardoning war criminals, ad naseum. Get a general on board. Duckworth ticks a lot of boxes but there is a pretty deep bench of general level women out there with even more experience. Here’s a list for the Army: [Women in the Army | The United States Army](https://www.army.mil/women/profiles/) There are more if you count other branches. By definition, one is a skilled politician if made it to the ranks of general (or equivalent). The rest of the women upthread are all talented and should be taking cabinet positions to fill out the backfield for 2024. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2020, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/24 "2020-03-14T23:05:12Z")
Whatever happened to Corey Booker? He was the fair-headed child a while ago, touted as a potential presidential candidate and with a solid record (Mayor of Newark, Senator) of winning elections…and now, by Lance Turbo’s message above, not even in the top ten. Yeah, he’s from a solid Blue state and is a male, but a strong (and young/vibrant) VP candidate is going to make a difference with three ancient guys in the other slots. Although I must admit, I’d pay real money to see Pence having to be on a debate stage with Tammy Duckworth… ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2020, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/25 "2020-03-14T23:59:00Z")
I think Booker would be a good choice. I really REALLY do not want another older white person. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/26 "2020-03-15T00:03:05Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Here’s the top ten Dem VP nominees according to [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5883/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination) based on last traded price. > > ```auto > > 1 Kamala Harris $0.28 > 2 Amy Klobuchar $0.21 > 3 Stacey Abrams $0.15 > 4 Elizabeth Warren $0.08 > 5 Hillary Clinton $0.05 > 6 Tammy Duckworth $0.04 > 7 C. Cortez Masto $0.04 > 8 Michelle Obama $0.04 > 9 Pete Buttigieg $0.03 > 10 Val Demings $0.03 > > ``` > > Most have been mentioned in this thread. Some are ridiculous. No, no, no my good sir. You slander the betting markets. If some of those odds are ridiculous you shouldn’t be telling us. You should be clocking dollars if it’s “ridiculous” that Michelle might get it. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/27 "2020-03-15T00:57:12Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > No, no, no my good sir. You slander the betting markets. If some of those odds are ridiculous you shouldn’t be telling us. You should be clocking dollars if it’s “ridiculous” that Michelle might get it. Your hilariously misinformed commentary on prediction markets is a delight as always. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/28 "2020-03-15T01:01:56Z")
Yer welcome. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/29 "2020-03-15T01:41:51Z")
Deval Patrick. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/30 "2020-03-15T02:13:36Z")
DSeid, I love Tammy Baldwin — good call. Did you mention that she’s openly gay? Another plus, in my book. Abrams would be good, too. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/31 "2020-03-15T02:50:21Z")
I’m not overly familiar with Baldwin, but after a quick scan of her Wiki page, she looks pretty interesting. She opposed the Iraq war, supported ACORN, supports single payer, and generally seems like someone progressives could get behind. Also, being a gay woman doesn’t hurt. Wisconsin replaces Senators by special election, though, so the Democrats would have to fight for her seat if she became VP. As a pessimistic sort, I’d prefer the VP choice not put a Senate seat in play. She’s been in Congress since 1999. Any major scandals? ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/32 "2020-03-15T03:24:18Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > Whatever happened to Corey Booker? He was the fair-headed child a while ago, touted as a potential presidential candidate and with a solid record (Mayor of Newark, Senator) of winning elections…and now, by Lance Turbo’s message above, not even in the top ten. > > Yeah, he’s from a solid Blue state and is a male, but a strong (and young/vibrant) VP candidate is going to make a difference with three ancient guys in the other slots. > Although I must admit, I’d pay real money to see Pence having to be on a debate stage with Tammy Duckworth… He would be my choice. He disappointed me by playing against his strengths in the campaign. I think someone gave him bad advice and told him to act tougher. His strength is in his natural charm and charisma. In non-political situations I’ve seen him captivate a crowd with no notes and no TelePrompTer. Being from a blue state might be an advantage. A democrat would be appointed to take his place by a democratic governor. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/33 "2020-03-15T03:28:10Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > He would be my choice. He disappointed me by playing against his strengths in the campaign. I think someone gave him bad advice and told him to act tougher. His strength is in his natural charm and charisma. In non-political situations I’ve seen him captivate a crowd with no notes and no TelePrompTer. > Being from a blue state might be an advantage. A democrat would be appointed to take his place by a democratic governor. Booker ran a poor campaign, starting with I am Spartacus during the Kavanaugh hearings. He should have run as Pete Buttigieg but a Senator. And never mention being Vegan. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/34 "2020-03-15T11:11:44Z")
Defensive Indifference, good point about the risk of Baldwin’s Senate seat going to a Republican. I’m leaning toward Abrams, then. Booker or Castro could work. What about Claire McCaskill? All of these are pretty good demo- and geographically, and are good counterweights to Biden’s main stylistic liability: his inarticulateness (getting a bit worse with age). Fortunately, this quality of Joe’s is intertwined with the perceived folksy, tell-it-like-it-is quality that will gain him a few thousand crucial votes in places like Michigan – BUT we also need someone with the neurotypical, Obama-style articulateness. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/35 "2020-03-15T12:06:26Z")
Kamala Harris is my prediction. She checks a _lot_ of boxes for him. Dark horse: Julian Castro. He may be the only male pick which will excite people of color. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/36 "2020-03-15T15:43:34Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Defensive Indifference, good point about the risk of Baldwin’s Senate seat going to a Republican. > I’m leaning toward Abrams, then. Booker or Castro could work. What about Claire McCaskill? > > All of these are pretty good demo- and geographically, and are good counterweights to Biden’s main stylistic liability: his inarticulateness (getting a bit worse with age). Fortunately, this quality of Joe’s is intertwined with the perceived folksy, tell-it-like-it-is quality that will gain him a few thousand crucial votes in places like Michigan – BUT we also need someone with the neurotypical, Obama-style articulateness. I like McCaskill OK. She’s boring, competent, and pretty centrist. Kinda meh. She also managed to lose a Senate race to Josh Fucking Hawley, so I wouldn’t count on her to deliver many votes in MO. She’s also 66, not too old objectively, but maybe not young enough to balance Biden. I mean, I think she’d be fine as VP. I just don’t see her as being a great pick. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/37 "2020-03-15T16:41:37Z")
How about Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/38 "2020-03-15T16:58:54Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Here’s the top ten Dem VP nominees according to [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5883/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination) based on last traded price. > > ```auto > > 1 Kamala Harris $0.28 > 2 Amy Klobuchar $0.21 > 3 Stacey Abrams $0.15 > 4 Elizabeth Warren $0.08 > 5 Hillary Clinton $0.05 > 6 **Tammy Duckworth** $0.04 > 7 C. Cortez Masto $0.04 > 8 Michelle Obama $0.04 > 9 Pete Buttigieg $0.03 > 10 Val Demings $0.03 > [my emphasis - sgs7] > > ``` > > Most have been mentioned in this thread. Some are ridiculous. Nine out of 10 are women, five of them “of color.” (Six if you count the white-skinned Cortez Masto as “of color.”) **Tammy Duckworth** is smart, well-spoken, and a genuine hero. [Here she reads a letter she wrote to her younger self.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Q11uJAqSw) But Tammy was not born in the U.S.A. Can we expect the GOP Whine Machine to turn that into a major issue? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/39 "2020-03-15T17:21:35Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > **Tammy Duckworth** is smart, well-spoken, and a genuine hero. [Here she reads a letter she wrote to her younger self.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Q11uJAqSw) But Tammy was not born in the U.S.A. Can we expect the GOP Whine Machine to turn that into a major issue? I see her wikipedia page conspicuously notes her Army veteran father can trace his roots to the American revolution. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482/40 "2020-03-15T17:29:56Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Can we expect the GOP Whine Machine to turn that into a major issue? Of course we can. They are horrible people who both attack her weaknesses, and try to twist her strengths into weaknesses and then attack those. They paint the fact that she left parts of her body on the battlefield in Iraq as sympathy for Isis. “Tammy Duckworth has a sad record of not standing up for our veterans.” - National Republican Senate Committee Tweet from March 2016. That is an exceedingly shitty thing to say about someone who lost her legs when she was hit by a rocket propelled grenade while piloting a Blackhawk in Iraq. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bidens-running-mate-prediction-thread/849482.md?page=3)