# Bill Gates predicts 'almost no poor countries' by 2035. Is he delusional?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion
**Created:** [January 22, 2014, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459 "2014-01-22T17:03:49Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/1 "2014-01-22T17:03:49Z")
I have to wonder if [Bill Gates](http://pocketnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/young-bill-gates-41.jpg) lives on the same planet. The Middle East is falling into civil war one country after another. Africa is still experiencing drought and is starving. A new [genocide warning for the Central African Republic](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25657816) was issued just last week.
Gates thinks the world is in a better place than ever before? No poor countries in 21 years? đ
[Gatesâ Prediction](http://www.nbcnews.com/business/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-2035-2D11967715)
Iâm not that optimistic. How about you?
> **[Central African Republic: Fears of sectarian genocide](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25657816)**
>
> The BBC's Paul Wood in the Central African Republic reports on fears that sectarian conflict between Muslims and Christians could result in genocide.
> [@](#):
>
> The 25-page report, written by Gates and his wife Melinda, who are co-chairs of theBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, argued that the world is a better place than it has even been before.
>
> Gates predicted that by 2035, there would be almost no poor countries left in the world, using todayâs World Bank classification of low-income countries â even after adjusting for inflation.
>
> âPoor countries are not doomed to stay poor. Some of the so-called developing nations have already developed,â he said in a his annual note, published on Tuesday.
>
> âI am optimistic enough about this that I am willing to make a prediction. By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world.â
---
### Author:  [@Living\_Well\_Is\_Best\_Revenge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Living_Well_Is_Best_Revenge)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/2 "2014-01-22T17:14:09Z")
The world IS a better place than itâs ever been before because of technological advancements. If advancements continue exponentially, his prediction could very well be true.
---
### Author:  [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/3 "2014-01-22T17:16:49Z")
It seems perfectly plausible that the standard of living in many poor countries will be significantly better in 20 years. If we manage to deal with AIDS and malaria in the same way we dealt with smallpox, that is going to have a huge impact on these countries.
Having âalmost no poor countriesâ does not mean that war is going to be eradicated. Nor does it mean that weather patterns like droughts are going to be eliminated. Your counterpoints to Gatesâ prediction arenât really addressing the same issues.
However, if countries are less poor they are probably going to be more stable, meaning that they may be able to address political issues without going to war as often; or that natural disasters like floods or droughts are less likely to cause humanitarian crises (like how the most serious drought in Californiaâs history isnât causing mass starvation or civil unrest).
---
### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/4 "2014-01-22T17:43:58Z")
Iâm convinced manâs innate blood lust and brutality dooms a lot of these countries. Theres always some warlord dominating the people or religious zealot willing to murder for his cause. Common thieves who will kill someone for a bag of rice. There are many good people but itâs the bad ones that do the damage and keeps these countries impoverished.
Some of the African countries for example would benefit tremendously from well digging, irrigation, and advanced farming techniques. But how can you do that with the dangerous conditions in those areas? Even the Peace Corps avoids the more dangerous areas.
---
### Author:  [@lazybratsche](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lazybratsche)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/5 "2014-01-22T18:18:27Z")
Can we talk about Gatesâ exact prediction? Itâs much more precise than âthere ainât gonna be no more poorsâ. He said there wonât be _many_ low income countries, using on very specific definition (an average gross national income less than $1035/person). In other words, given another couple decades of sustained development, countries like Bangladesh might be as well off as countries like India. That the [low income countries](http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/country-and-lending-groups#Low_income) will graduate into our current classification of lower-middle income.
---
### Author:  [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/6 "2014-01-22T18:24:56Z")
> [@Living\_Well\_Is\_Best\_Revenge](#):
>
> The world IS a better place than itâs ever been before because of technological advancements. If advancements continue exponentially, his prediction could very well be true.
Technology wonât solve the real problem: tribalism and ethnic warfare.
Rwanda, Syria, etc,etc,etcâŚ
If people donât want to live together with decent social order, no amount of electronic gadgetry will help.
First, you need to create a stable government , a legal system that isnât based on paying bribes, a economic environment that allows the average citizen to live in dignityâŚ
Then, and only then, you can add in the smartphones and Windows 8, and youâll have a chance to say âno poor countriesâ. But it ainât gonna happen by 2035. Or by 2135.
---
### Author:  [@ZipperJJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZipperJJ)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/7 "2014-01-22T18:25:05Z")
China is using Africa for cheap labor and natural resources. I think that is going to make a huge impact on the near future of Africa and really change the lives of a lot of people there. Hopefully for the better.
Granted, China isnât going to be worrying much about who is treating whom fairly, but I feel that just having a taste of industrialization and access to a little more capital will bring out a lot of individuals who will be able to turn around and do amazing things for their villages and countries.
[The recent issue of Wired featuring Bill Gates and Bill Clinton](http://www.wired.com/magazine/21-12) was hella inspiring. There are people all over the world looking at very small solutions to very big problems that have enormous impact on both the âthird worldâ and the Western world at once.
---
### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/8 "2014-01-22T18:33:51Z")
Maybe a few of the countries in the Low-income economies ($1,035 or less) bracket might move up to the next bracket.
So Gates is talking about countries reaching the Lower-middle-income economies ($1,036 to $4,085) bracket? Thatâs still an impoverished group. India and Pakistan have a educated middle class that has a relatively comfortable life. But isnât there a lot of poverty too? Iâm not sure what the numbers are.
---
### Author:  [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/9 "2014-01-22T18:48:18Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> So Gates is talking about countries reaching the Lower-middle-income economies ($1,036 to $4,085) bracket?
Yes. That was pretty explicit in his statement.
---
### Author:  [@harmonicamoon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/harmonicamoon)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/10 "2014-01-22T19:11:20Z")
I hope I am around to witness this event.
---
### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/11 "2014-01-22T19:16:00Z")
21 years is nothing. Gates will only be 80 then.
i just canât see that much change happening in that time. I do think lives will improve for the 2nd bracket countries like India and Pakistan. They already have an emerging tech industry. The countries in that lowest bracket are so war torn and brutalized. Somilia isnât going to manufacture memory chips or write IPhone apps anytime soon.
---
### Author:  [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/12 "2014-01-22T19:21:38Z")
The only nations left on earth with less than $1035 percapita income tend to be in Africa. There are a handful in Asia but mostly it is Africa.
If gdp growth gets high then yeah but a lot are at 4% a year or less, requiring at least 18 years to double an economy without inflation.
Plus income inequality, why would it matter if Eritrea or Somalia has $1200 per capita in 2040 if the vast majority are no better off and only the ruling class are richer.
Iâm not holding my breath . I havenât read the report but wonder if gates is wrongly extrapolating the gdp growth of Asian nations to African. Right now I donât see most of them growing very fast.
---
### Author:  [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/13 "2014-01-22T19:37:01Z")
Water and hygiene improvements can have major impacts without major costs. For just a few relative dollars the health of the household and community can be vastly improved.
You do not have to move mountains, reform governments, or build houses. You just need quite a few more toilets.
In many areas of the world people are still crapping outside, with poor washing. And people are running out of room to crap. This isnât the best link, and not the one I was reading a few days ago, but if we can only improve this basic thing it will be a huge step.
We canât do much about the dictators that the money has to be funneled through, they are in charge of their turf. That will eventually change over time.
Clean water and hygiene are the place to start.
> **[Food: Life, But Better | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/health/life-but-better/food)**
>
> Food and diet tips, science and tools from Life, But Better, CNN's essential source for information that inspires and challenges us to lead better lives.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/14 "2014-01-22T19:50:51Z")
Who wants to set up a betting pool? Iâve got $10 on GatesâŚ
---
### Author:  [@harmonicamoon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/harmonicamoon)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/15 "2014-01-22T19:52:57Z")
> [@](#):
>
> You just need quite a few more toilets.
If you are referring to the flush toilet, the authors of _Humanure_ disagree with you. They basically say that the flush toilet is a huge waste of fresh water resources and has all but destroyed the water table.
Although, not dinner table conversation, this book is a very informative read.
---
### Author:  [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/16 "2014-01-22T20:07:09Z")
Actually, improvements in toilet design is one of his foundationâs projects. See [this PDF document](https://docs.gatesfoundation.org/Documents/Fact_Sheet_Reinvent_the_Toilet_Challenge.pdf) for more information. But [this guy](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/19/opinion/bill-gates-cant-build-a-toilet.html) criticizes the designs that came out of the Gates Foundationâs challenge as way too complex and expensive. His groupâs website is [here](http://www.toiletsforpeople.com/).
---
### Author:  [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/17 "2014-01-22T21:20:46Z")
> [@harmonicamoon](#):
>
> If you are referring to the flush toilet, the authors of _Humanure_ disagree with you. They basically say that the flush toilet is a huge waste of fresh water resources and has all but destroyed the water table.
> Although, not dinner table conversation, this book is a very informative read.
Hereâs the winner of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationâs [Reinvent the Toilet Challenge](http://www.gatesfoundation.org/media-center/press-releases/2012/08/bill-gates-names-winners-of-the-reinvent-the-toilet-challenge). The requirements were that it required no piped water, sewer or electrical connections, and could transform the waste into something useful.
Dammit, Dewey!
---
### Author:  [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/18 "2014-01-22T21:31:46Z")
The only way this could happen would be if several billion people died, leaving the spoils to the survivors.
Just like after the Black Death.
---
### Author:  [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/19 "2014-01-22T21:46:44Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#):
>
> The only way this could happen would be if several billion people died, leaving the spoils to the survivors.
>
> Just like after the Black Death.
Or by reading the various links in both the OP and subsequent posts that show EXACTLY how it will likely happen. Or are you misreading âpoor countriesâ as âpoor peopleâ?
---
### Author:  [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)
#### Post date: [January 22, 2014, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459/20 "2014-01-22T22:09:53Z")
I work in international development, and trust me, my colleagues keeping their resumes up to date, because this field is not likely to exist in the long term, at least not in its current form. The last 20 years have seen massive, massive improvements to health , education, stability, gender equality and quality of life. War between states has almost disappeared, and even civil war is on the way out. The Cold War dinosaur dictators are dying off, and democracy is slowly taking hold around the globe. Even famines and droughts, while still deadly, are not as massive as they were even in the 1980s.
I grew up hearing about the starving children in China. My daughter will look back and marvel about how she used to hear about starving kids in Africa. And this change is already underway. I was in Zimbabwe a couple years ago, and was surprised to find fast food joints, ATMs and satellite dishes everywhere. When I arrived in Cameroon in 2006, my village had just got cell phone access. Now, I keep track of goings-on via the Chiefâs Facebook page. Just like Brazil and India have transformed from âsynonym for desperationâ to âdynamic and complex,â much of Africa is poised to make that change.
Thatâs not to say everything is peachy. Poverty is becoming less a matter country, and more a matter within countries. Itâs not entirely going away, as much as becoming more evenly distributed. Natural disasters will increase as we continue to move into more marginal areas, and we will need to respond to those. The needs of those often trampled by development- including indigenous people- will need protecting. And there will be new challenges- climate change, new diseases, and even the effects of wealth: obesity, smoking, etc. But the general trend right now is up.
[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-gates-predicts-almost-no-poor-countries-by-2035-is-he-delusional/679459.md?page=2)