# Bill Kristol's "Independent Candidate" - who will it be? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 30, 2016, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048 "2016-05-30T01:25:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/1 "2016-05-30T01:25:24Z")
Bill Kristol tweeted the following: “Just a heads up over this holiday weekend: There will be an independent candidate–an impressive one, with a strong team and a real chance.” > Kristol has been pushing for a 3rd party challenger to the Donald for quite some time now - Romney was a late favorite of his - and he is now claiming that an “impressive” candidate, “with a strong team and a real chance” is going to soon announce. Who? ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/2 "2016-05-30T01:46:02Z")
Kristol’s record as a seer is not terribly impressive. But he’s been pushing a Romney third party run, so maybe he really thinks that’s going to happen. But thinking a third party candidate has a “real chance” is pretty optimistic. ETA: I don’t think anyone will announce a serious independent run, and Kristol will continue being comically inept. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/3 "2016-05-30T01:49:54Z")
First, Kristol is full of it. Second, if this is one of the rare times he’s not, then it’s Dan Quayle. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/4 "2016-05-30T01:51:27Z")
Dan Quayle! 😃 I voted for Cruz, because, reasons. I screwed up the title, btw. Should be “Impressive Candidate” not “Independent Candidate”. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/5 "2016-05-30T02:09:38Z")
I picked Quayle because Kristol used to work for him and he’s probably the only guy who would actually give Kristol an inside scoop like that. No one else secretly setting up a run for President would tell Bill Kristol. So my pick is not actually in jest, although the idea of a Quayle candidacy would certainly be a joke. But then again, stranger things have happened. Look who he’d be running against. And he’s been out of the limelight long enough that a skilled team can remake his image. Besides, SNL would get the largest audience ever if he got elected just to see Dana Carvey reprise Bush 41 and say, “Dan, you’ve finally gained acceptance!” ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/6 "2016-05-30T02:52:24Z")
it’s not gonna happen; nobody is pouring anymore money to take down Trump from the right; they tried, and to the tune of $500 million dollars and 16 other candidates with a lot of sugar daddies. This might just be Kristol signaling to fellow defense conservatives to vote Hillary (or stay home). ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/7 "2016-05-30T03:27:54Z")
The deadline for an independent to file in Texas was a couple of weeks ago. If you aren’t running in the biggest red state, how can a third party candidate have any real chance? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/8 "2016-05-30T03:31:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I picked Quayle because Kristol used to work for him and he’s probably the only guy who would actually give Kristol an inside scoop like that. No one else secretly setting up a run for President would tell Bill Kristol. > > So my pick is not actually in jest, although the idea of a Quayle candidacy would certainly be a joke. But then again, stranger things have happened. Look who he’d be running against. And he’s been out of the limelight long enough that a skilled team can remake his image. > > Besides, SNL would get the largest audience ever if he got elected just to see Dana Carvey reprise Bush 41 and say, “Dan, you’ve finally gained acceptance!” Quayle’s endorsed TRUMP already, tho. Obviously Kristol’s spiritual father-Leon Trotsky. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/9 "2016-05-30T03:39:29Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > The deadline for an independent to file in Texas was a couple of weeks ago. If you aren’t running in the biggest red state, how can a third party candidate have any real chance? nm ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/10 "2016-05-30T03:44:46Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > The deadline for an independent to file in Texas was a couple of weeks ago. If you aren’t running in the biggest red state, how can a third party candidate have any real chance? The idea is that the election goes to Congress, in which case the real Republican(not Trump) wins. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/11 "2016-05-30T04:31:05Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > The deadline for an independent to file in Texas was a couple of weeks ago. If you aren’t running in the biggest red state, how can a third party candidate have any real chance? Not to mention the deadlines for several other states is coming up real quick and most will require both a President and Vice Presidential nominee so they’ll be cutting it real close and getting the required signatures and so forth can be time consuming and expensive. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/12 "2016-05-30T05:15:19Z")
Not that Kristol’s ever been right about anything, but Gary Johnson was confirmed as the Libertarian Party’s nominee today (well, yesterday now). Probably no real chance to win, but a Johnson/Weld ticket may let them break the vote percentage gates for debate presence in the next presidential cycle (and not coincidentally maybe drain some of Trump’s (and possibly BernieBro) numbers). ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 6:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/13 "2016-05-30T06:45:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The idea is that the election goes to Congress, in which case the real Republican(not Trump) wins. Already debunked. The only one that hurts is Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/14 "2016-05-30T16:39:55Z")
Bill Kristol Is Full of Shit is axiomatic, but if it were going to be anyone, I’d guess it’d be Jeb!. He’s already done the paperwork to get on the ballots. The Bush Family collectively is rich enough to buy Donald and use him for a bathmat. He’s got about as good a resume as anyone on the Republican bench. Someone - and by _someone_, I mean, Poppy - might honestly feel that it’s the Bush Family Duty to jump in and save America from our own trashy impulses by giving us another Bush President. It’s all going up in flames, of course. Bill Kristol will still be full of shit, when it’s over. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/15 "2016-05-30T17:41:51Z")
He’s going to be as right about this as he was about Iraq. The best a third party conservative could do is pick up a few of the blood red states and split the right wing votes in purple states, giving them to Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/16 "2016-05-30T18:01:58Z")
Throwing the election into the House is not _impossible_, just very, very unlikely. But they’ve pretty much run out of “possible”. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/17 "2016-05-30T18:07:55Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > The deadline for an independent to file in Texas was a couple of weeks ago. If you aren’t running in the biggest red state, how can a third party candidate have any real chance? There are two theories for an independent candidate, one remotely plausible, one quite implausible: (1) Get the #NeverTrump vote mobilized for key GOP Senate races even though it will mean throwing the Presidential election. (2) Flip one or two (and only one or two) key states that Hillary would otherwise have won, throwing the election to the House of Representatives. The key to this plan is somehow fielding a candidate who will not take any votes in close states that Trump might win on his own, like Ohio and Florida, while flipping a state that Hillary would need to clinch, like Virginia or New Jersey. Neither scenario requires the candidate to be on the ballot in Texas. Indeed, the latter scenario requires the candidate to NOT be in the ballot in Texas and many other states. ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/18 "2016-05-30T18:16:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And he’s been out of the limelight long enough that a skilled team can remake his image. I disagree. Quayle is a relic of the distant past where, once you get good and pegged as a dumbass, or as looking like the little man on top of the wedding cake, the American public NEVER FORGETS. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/19 "2016-05-30T18:21:22Z")
Quayle did run for President in 2000. Nobody noticed or cared. What’s different now? ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2016, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048/20 "2016-05-30T19:00:20Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > He’s going to be as right about this as he was about Iraq. The best a third party conservative could do is pick up a few of the blood red states and split the right wing votes in purple states, giving them to Hillary. On the other hand, that would totally be worth it. First, we avoid Trump as president, which is necessary at any cost. Second, we get to say “Trump actually lost states to a third-party candidate!” Alas, it’s all fantasy. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-kristols-independent-candidate-who-will-it-be/756048.md?page=2)