# BillO- flight 1549 "miracle" **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [January 17, 2009, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720 "2009-01-17T06:51:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/61 "2009-01-17T18:24:29Z")
> [@Jenaroph](#): > > How do you mean? > > I read that, coupled with the next line, as Bill dismissing secular thinking, because the fortuitous outcome due to the the skill of the pilot that he’d call Divine Providence secular people would say is Just A Coincidence. He’s doesn’t seem to be allowing for the same sense of amazement and gratitude for the outcome in secular thinking as in miraculous thinking. He’s wrong if he thinks that’s the case; the wonder and gratitude is there, but for the calculable skill and level-headedness of the pilot, not for the indefinable Hand of God Intervening. (If God was really watching out for the passengers, why did the plane crash in the first place, hmm?) > > He’s explicitly dividing people into two groups, and says Do The Math, This Event Proves Us Believers are Clearly Right, and tacitly that Non-Believers are Clearly Wrong. The issue here is that Bill has equated secularism with atheism, or at best agnosticism. I am a secularist, but I most definitely believe in God- secularism is a political philosophy, while my theism is a religious belief. I think that’s the point that **furt** is trying to make, and I think it’s a valid one. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/62 "2009-01-17T18:25:12Z")
> [@Scylla](#): > > Well, if you think Og the caveman used the Scientific method, than why haven’t we found his lab notes? [QUOTE=Cuckoorex] We did. Cave paintings depict prey animals being hunted. [/QUOTE] > [@Scylla](#): > > True, and a clever comeback, but you can hardly tell me they represent a hypothesis and not a fait accompli. > [@Cuckoorex](#): > > Why not a hypothesis? “Og sees deer. Og throws spear at deer. Deer dies. Og eats deer.” Hypothesis, or record of observation. Either way, it’s a record, the prehistoric equivalent of “notes” which predate any formal version of the scientific method. IMO \*\*Cuckoorex \*\*is closer to the mark as culture (and culture is IMO what you are in reality dealing with here) includes art, science, as well as moral systems. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/63 "2009-01-17T18:28:58Z")
I just found it extremely amusing that O’Douchey tried to use mathematics and a sort of pseudo-logic to prove that the safe landing was a miracle. Anyway, I’m not an aero engineer, but I’m fairly certain that there’s nothing miraculous about the plane not tearing itself in half. They’re designed to make emergency landings on water, and this would have been about to slowest emergency landing imaginable (ie., right after takeoff). ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/64 "2009-01-17T18:30:14Z")
> [@Terrifel](#): > > And when he rains food on you, you’ll help yourself, won’t you? So why go to the refrigerator, unless your faith in its power is greater than your faith in God? While amusing, this is in fact covered in the Bible and generally in about the first year of Sunday School. Notions like this are typically countered with “Thou shalt not tempt God.” What this means is that if you step in front of a truck on your own initiative you should not expect God to save you. The concept is that we are not in charge of God, and don’t get to tell him what to do. The operative issue with manna, truck invincibility and all the other stuff like this is that God has specifically told you otherwise you should not expect intervention. > [@](#): > > Well, I’m not trying to tell you your own religion. Yes you are. That makes you a false prophet. I should stone you now. > [@](#): > > If you believe that the refrigerator speaks to you more clearly than God, I won’t argue otherwise. Just promise that if your fridge sends you on a mission to kill people, rather than just to get food from it, you’ll clear it with the other appliances first. There is only appliance. All other appliances derive from the refrigerator. The stove? Reverse refrigerator? Cuisinart? A refrigerator servitor. It takes the bounty of the fridge and converts into a version suitable for consumption lest we be overwhelmed by consuming the bounty of the fridge directly. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/65 "2009-01-17T18:32:02Z")
> [@Great\_Dave](#): > > O’Reilly said something along the lines of "it’s a trillion to one chance that the pilot is an expert glider pilot So, the world contains… Google population estimate… where’s that “Calculator” icon?.. 0.0067 expert glider pilots. That would be, what, one with expertise in glider piloting in one hand and half of the attached forearm? BillO’s idiocy is like an onion, except that no matter how deep you peel you never reach a point where there are no more layers. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/66 "2009-01-17T18:34:40Z")
> [@Scylla](#): > > The concept is that we are not in charge of God, and don’t get to tell him what to do. The operative issue with manna, truck invincibility and all the other stuff like this is that God has specifically told you otherwise you should not expect intervention. Where did he do that, again? The Bible? Qu’ran? The Vedas? The Book of Mormon? The collected works of Confucius? You’d think that a truly omnipotent Supreme Being would have a better publishing arrangement. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/67 "2009-01-17T18:39:21Z")
> [@Eonwe](#): > > Things don’t happen randomly as chance coincidences, they happen as the result of actions. I can see why a Bush Kool-Aid drinker would wish to deemphasize the linkage between actions and consequences… ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/68 "2009-01-17T18:40:44Z")
> [@Cuckoorex](#): > > How do you know that Og wasn’t hypothesizing about a new approach to hunting? Maybe some of the “notes” that he recorded are a kind of shorthand that he used to describe how the wind shifts or the time of day that hunting is most successful. I don’t know if it is or isn’t. But it could be. Indeed it could be. That is a hypothesis. In the absence of proof, you may believe that hypothesis. I will not say that it is definitely not true since I can’t prove that it’s not. If I were to deny your possibility that would make me an atheist as far as that is concerned. I translate atheist as " unreasonable idiot." Since I don’t know, and maybe doubt that we ever will, I’m agnostic on the issue. (FTR, I’m in the cave paintings as “this is how we did it, and it worked, so let’s make a record so we don’t forget” camp, rather than the “I have an idea, let’s try this, look at my cave painting” camp. I know that when I am outside making plans with other people I usually use a stick to scratch it into the ground. I suspect our forefathers did the same thing, and they only drew it on a cave wall after it worked. It is suspicious that there are only good ideas on the cave wall. If your cave wall represents hypotheses, then there should be some precursors or bad ideas up there, too.) > [@](#): > > This portion of the argument is pretty ridiculous anyway, and completely misses the point, which is that you live in a fantasy world where magic refrigerators trump the scientific method. On the contrary. I think it circled around quite nicely. ---
**Author:** ![Terrifel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c68b51/32.png) [@Terrifel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terrifel)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/69 "2009-01-17T18:46:02Z")
> [@Scylla](#): > > While amusing, this is in fact covered in the Bible and generally in about the first year of Sunday School. Notions like this are typically countered with “Thou shalt not tempt God.” > > What this means is that if you step in front of a truck on your own initiative you should not expect God to save you. > > The concept is that we are not in charge of God, and don’t get to tell him what to do. The operative issue with manna, truck invincibility and all the other stuff like this is that God has specifically told you otherwise you should not expect intervention. Okay, but earlier you claimed that you go to the refrigerator out of faith. Aren’t you therefore testing God through this action? Or testing the refrigerator? There’s really no faith-based reason to trust the fridge over your desk as a place to find food, unless you’re claiming that God (or the fridge) specifically told you to find food there. Going to the fridge is not necessarily a matter of religious faith, I guess is what I’m saying. > [@](#): > > Yes you are. That makes you a false prophet. I should stone you now. You may be too late to do any good, I fear. > [@](#): > > There is only appliance. All other appliances derive from the refrigerator. The stove? Reverse refrigerator? Cuisinart? A refrigerator servitor. It takes the bounty of the fridge and converts into a version suitable for consumption lest we be overwhelmed by consuming the bounty of the fridge directly. Well, I’m not arguing that. ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/70 "2009-01-17T18:47:11Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Where did he do that, again? The Bible? Qu’ran? The Vedas? The Book of Mormon? The collected works of Confucius? Deuteronomy 6:16 Luke 4:12 You’d think that a truly omnipotent Supreme Being would have a better publishing arrangement. [/QUOTE] Ezekiel 12:12 Take that! ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/71 "2009-01-17T18:53:15Z")
> [@Terrifel](#): > > Okay, but earlier you claimed that you go to the refrigerator out of faith. Aren’t you therefore testing God through this action? Or testing the refrigerator? There’s really no faith-based reason to trust the fridge over your desk as a place to find food, unless you’re claiming that God (or the fridge) specifically told you to find food there. Just because the refrigerator has always held food before, and just because the desk has always been inedible before does not mean that those things are still true now. Logically, I oughtta test the desk for edibility to make sure it hasn’t changed before I invest all the effort in getting up and walking over to the fridge. I only empower the fridge as the first choice out of faith that past experience will continue to hold true. Clearly, this is not a rational beleif as we live in a chaotic and constantly changing universe. Yet, I continue irrationally to hold onto this belief in refrigerator as food provider and desk as inedible out of antiquated stubborness. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/72 "2009-01-17T18:54:52Z")
> [@Scylla](#): > > Ezekiel 12:12 > > Take that! > [@](#): > > And the prince that is among them shall bear upon his shoulder in the twilight, and shall go forth: they shall dig through the wall to carry out thereby: he shall cover his face, that he see not the ground with his eyes. Okay, you win. ---
**Author:** ![Terrifel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c68b51/32.png) [@Terrifel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terrifel)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/73 "2009-01-17T18:57:35Z")
> [@Scylla](#): > > Just because the refrigerator has always held food before, and just because the desk has always been inedible before does not mean that those things are still true now. Logically, I oughtta test the desk for edibility to make sure it hasn’t changed before I invest all the effort in getting up and walking over to the fridge. > > I only empower the fridge as the first choice out of faith that past experience will continue to hold true. Clearly, this is not a rational beleif as we live in a chaotic and constantly changing universe. Yet, I continue irrationally to hold onto this belief in refrigerator as food provider and desk as inedible out of antiquated stubborness. What would happen if you went out to eat instead? ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/74 "2009-01-17T18:59:57Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Okay, you win. Ezekial 12:2 Sorry. But yeah, that other thing… that’s important too. Don’t forget that. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Dave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/46a35a/32.png) [@Great\_Dave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Dave)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/75 "2009-01-17T19:02:45Z")
> [@DanBlather](#): > > Even worse, it’s bad math. A trillion to one chance that the pilot was an expert on gliders? I’m guessing there are less than 100 billion commercial pilots and there must be at least 2 or three who are glider pilots as well. > [@Steve\_MB](#): > > So, the world contains… Google population estimate… where’s that “Calculator” icon?.. 0.0067 expert glider pilots. That would be, what, one with expertise in glider piloting in one hand and half of the attached forearm? > > BillO’s idiocy is like an onion, except that no matter how deep you peel you never reach a point where there are no more layers. I forgot to make this point. Thanks for picking it up. > [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > Rachel Maddow had a great segment last night on how the real lesson here is to have well-trained people appointed to positions where their training comes in handy, and to scrupulously avoid any cronyism, nepotism, favoritism, etc. for just that end. She didn’t even have to point out how “Heckuva Job Brownie” figures in as a specific counter-example. Maddow nailed it much better than Bill. In fact, I don’t think she went far enough. ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/76 "2009-01-17T19:03:26Z")
> [@Terrifel](#): > > What would happen if you went out to eat instead? What kind of idiot goes out to eat without checking the fridge first? Only after standing before the Fridge with the door open for five minutes while intoning the words “Honey, is there anything to eat?,” may one than go out to eat. Failure to do this means the leftovers spoil. Everybody knows this. Don’t waste my time with trivialities. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/77 "2009-01-17T19:11:46Z")
> [@Scylla](#): > > Ezekial 12:2 > Sorry. > But yeah, that other thing… that’s important too. Don’t forget that. > [@](#): > > Son of man, thou dwellest in the midst of a rebellious house, which have eyes to see, and see not; they have ears to hear, and hear not: for they are a rebellious house. And how are you supposed to know which book is the real one and which one is the rebellion? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/78 "2009-01-17T19:14:45Z")
**Scylla** , I honestly can’t tell if you’re serious or not anymore. And fuck you, Firefox, ‘anymore’ is a word. ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/79 "2009-01-17T19:20:08Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > And how are you supposed to know which book is the real one and which one is the rebellion? Deu 18:20-18:22 Jer 14:14 -14:16 Mat 7:15-7:23 Rev 19:20 ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2009, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720/80 "2009-01-17T19:22:07Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > **Scylla** , I honestly can’t tell if you’re serious or not anymore. And fuck you, Firefox, ‘anymore’ is a word. I don’t really worship the fridge. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/billo-flight-1549-miracle/481720.md?page=5)