# Bird Flu Epidemic--has it has begun? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [March 14, 2005, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485 "2005-03-14T17:27:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2005, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/1 "2005-03-14T17:27:36Z")
An outbreak of cases, in a cluster. Direct Human-to-Human transmission. > **[Health & Pharma News | Latest Healthcare Stories](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/)** [http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200503/s1323202.htm](http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200503/s1323202.htm) > **[Medical and health information](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/)** > > Medical news and health news headlines posted throughout the day, every day The nurses took precautions against infection. It didn’t work. OK. Now I’m a little more nervous. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2005, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/2 "2005-03-14T17:57:51Z")
> [@](#): > > Earlier, there had only been one probable case of human-to-human transmission of the virus, that of a Thai woman who cradled her infected and dying daughter in her arms for hours. Wow, that’s sad. Any idea what the mortaliity rate is on this? ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2005, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/3 "2005-03-14T18:10:40Z")
The Medical News article, the third link, said that “[a]bout two thirds to three quarters of bird flu patients die”. After SARS, we’re watching this very closely… ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2005, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/4 "2005-03-14T20:28:09Z")
> [@Sunspace](#): > > The Medical News article, the third link, said that “[a]bout two thirds to three quarters of bird flu patients die”. Wow. I wonder much of this is due to poorer medical facilities in the third world? ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2005, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/5 "2005-03-14T20:46:18Z")
> [@Sunspace](#): > > The Medical News article, the third link, said that “[a]bout two thirds to three quarters of bird flu patients die”. The term “patients” there makes me think that high mortality rate indicates those that are hospitalized for this flu. Is this true of the general population? Usually I think of people who go to the hospital for influenza as high risk group, that is, those who are very young, elderly or otherwise immuno-compromised. ---
**Author:** ![Random](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/57b2e6/32.png) [@Random](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Random)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2005, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/6 "2005-03-14T23:42:11Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Wow. I wonder much of this is due to poorer medical facilities in the third world? > [@ShibbOleth](#): > > The term “patients” there makes me think that high mortality rate indicates those that are hospitalized for this flu. Is this true of the general population? Usually I think of people who go to the hospital for influenza as high risk group, that is, those who are very young, elderly or otherwise immuno-compromised. Maybe, but this is potentially very serious stuff. Millions of young, healthy adults died in the U.S. and Europe in 1919, from a flu with some disturbing similarities. And while IANAD, I don’t think there’s a whole lot more medical science can do for influenza patients today. (apart from prevention through vaccines, of course) ---
**Author:** ![Random](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/57b2e6/32.png) [@Random](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Random)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2005, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/7 "2005-03-14T23:47:48Z")
Cite = [http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/](http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/) ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2005, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/8 "2005-03-15T13:37:24Z")
> [@Random](#): > > Cite = [http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/](http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/) Two interesting notes from your cite (underlining is mine): > [@](#): > > Then, in pockets across the globe, something erupted that seemed as benign as the common cold. The influenza of that season, however, was far more than a cold. In the two years that this scourge ravaged the earth, a fifth of the world’s population was infected. The flu was most deadly for people ages 20 to 40. This pattern of morbidity was unusual for influenza which is usually a killer of the elderly and young children. It infected 28% of all Americans (Tice). Note the “pockets” comment. In today’s world of fast global travel it’s unlikely that a pandemic would only strike pockets, barring quickly implemented quarantines. Also the Spanish flu was unusual as it tended to kill the healthy. Is there any speculation as to why that might be? And is there any indication that the avian flu follows this pattern? > [@](#): > > The effect of the influenza epidemic was so severe that the average life span in the US was depressed by 10 years. The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%. The death rate for 15 to 34-year-olds of influenza and pneumonia were 20 times higher in 1918 than in previous years (Taubenberger). This is why I asked about the mortality rate with the avian flu. Also, does mortality rate here equal percent of total population killed or percent of infected persons killed? I’d guess it’s the first. ---
**Author:** ![Random](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/57b2e6/32.png) [@Random](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Random)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/9 "2005-03-16T00:03:28Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > Also the Spanish flu was unusual as it tended to kill the healthy. Is there any speculation as to why that might be? Again, IANAD, but I’ve read a book or two about the 1918-9 flu. One theory is that, 40 or so years before, there was a less virulent relative of the 1918 flu that spread one year. People alive then caught it, and got at least a partial immunity. Any of those people still alive in 1918 would be late middle age or elderly, which would explain why death rates were lower for them when compared to young adults. (Usually, flu tends to kill older, sicker people, but if the older people had an immunity, they would have survived.) > [@ShibbOleth](#): > > And is there any indication that the avian flu follows this pattern? This is why I asked about the mortality rate with the avian flu. Also, does mortality rate here equal percent of total population killed or percent of infected persons killed? I’d guess it’s the first. I think it’s the latter. As for what the 1919 flu was, I don’t think anyone knows for sure what it was, but I’ve read speculation that it was an avian flu. ---
**Author:** ![Random](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/57b2e6/32.png) [@Random](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Random)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/10 "2005-03-16T00:29:54Z")
Here’s the CDC site’s discussion: > **[Information on Avian Influenza](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/)** > > Avian influenza refers to the disease caused by infection with avian (bird) influenza (flu) Type A viruses. ---
**Author:** ![Random](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/57b2e6/32.png) [@Random](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Random)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/11 "2005-03-16T00:37:02Z")
Here’s a Reuters article that reports a 2004 study that concluded that the 1918 flu was avian in origin. I’d place more weight on the CDC site (cited above) that states that the origin of that flu is undetermined, though. ---
**Author:** ![Random](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/57b2e6/32.png) [@Random](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Random)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/12 "2005-03-16T00:38:04Z")
Urf. [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4176602/](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4176602/) ---
**Author:** ![Zsofia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7bcc69/32.png) [@Zsofia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zsofia)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/13 "2005-03-16T00:47:39Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > Also the Spanish flu was unusual as it tended to kill the healthy. Is there any speculation as to why that might be? And is there any indication that the avian flu follows this pattern? According to **The Great Influenza** , which is quite good BTW, they think healthy young people died of massive overresponse from the immune system. These people were dying within _hours_ of showing symptoms, sometimes. They’d turn blue from lack of oxygen as their lungs were swamped. The ones who got simple flu-related pneumonia were much more typical of what you’d expect to see, statistically. Also, older people may have been protected by a flu strain a few decades earlier, AIRC. ---
**Author:** ![uglybeech](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/82dd89/32.png) [@uglybeech](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/uglybeech)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-epidemic-has-it-has-begun/294485/14 "2005-03-16T05:27:20Z")
From a heart-attack inducing editorial in The Lancet (registration required) [Avian influenza: perfect storm now gathering?](http://www.thelancet.com/journal/vol365/iss9462/full/llan.365.9462.analysis_and_interpretation.32480.1) > [@](#): > > The disease has killed about 46 people, but if the virus mutates sufficiently to enable sustained human-to-human transmission, **that number could rise to levels that would dwarf the millions killed in the influenza pandemics of 1918, 1957, and 1968**. A report in the Feb 24 issue of Nature suggested that cases are being under-reported: some Vietnamese patients with influenza-like symptoms, but initially cleared of having avian influenza on testing, were later found to carry the H5N1 virus at reanalysis; and some ill persons without typical influenza symptoms also had the virus. The bad news here is that the disease might be much more widespread than previously thought; but the good news is that if so, the mortality rate, now believed to be about 76%, may actually be lower.