# Bird Flu more deadly than SARS **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [November 29, 2004, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235 "2004-11-29T23:21:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2004, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/1 "2004-11-29T23:21:34Z")
Not to freak **Bosda** out, but according to a [Reuters report](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=571&ncid=571&e=6&u=/nm/20041129/hl_nm/birdflu_hongkong_dc_2), the WHO has said that the Avian flu is more deadly than SARS: > [@](#): > > A WHO estimate last week that H5N1 could infect up to 30 percent of the world’s population and kill between two and seven million people was a conservative estimate, said Shigeru Omi, regional director of WHO’s Western Pacific Regional Office. > > “The maximum range is more … maybe 20 to 50 million people,” Omi said in a speech in Hong Kong. > > “It will be incomparable to SARS,” he said, referring to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome epidemic that killed 800 people around the world in 2003. > > While SARS had a mortality rate of around 15 percent, the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu kills up to a third of the people it infects. H5N1 has proven to be versatile and is now able to latch itself onto more hosts, Omi said. So, the question is: how does the Avian flu differ from the regular flu? My understanding of regular flu vaccine is that the problem is identifying which strain to worry about. I assume that WHO scientists know what causes Avian flu, so if so, why not just cook up some vaccine? ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2004, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/2 "2004-11-29T23:39:50Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > So, the question is: how does the Avian flu differ from the regular flu? My understanding of regular flu vaccine is that the problem is identifying which strain to worry about. I assume that WHO scientists know what causes Avian flu, so if so, why not just cook up some vaccine? IANAD and IANAMedical Researcher, and heck, I haven’t studied biology since high school, and I wasn’t even listening then. As I understand it, avian flu as it currently exists doesn’t generally transmit from person to person. The people who have had it, AFAIK, all got it from direct contact with sick chickens. However, it could mutate into a flu virus that does spread from person to person, and that’s what they’re worried about. So the avian flu strain out there now isn’t exactly the strain that would cause a major epidemic. The mutated strain might be close enough to the current avian flu for a vaccine based on one to work against the other, or it might not. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2004, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/3 "2004-11-29T23:40:10Z")
One of the problems with the bird flu could be the mutation rate. If it’s high enough, then by the time you’ve cooked up your vaccine, it’s mutated enough to make the vaccine worthless. Another problem could simply be the amount of hosts available to the bird flu. SARS was “easily” containable because the animal hosts were evidently _not_ in widespread contact with human beings. This made it “easy” to clamp down on the outbreaks, and let the disease “burn itself out” rapidly. Birds are pretty widespread, and as much as car owners and city dwellers might like the idea, killing them enmasse, to limit the spread of the disease, isn’t an option. Getting the necessary amount of vaccine produced and imunizing folks is going to be difficult as well. It took decades to wipe out small pox, and IIRC, we still haven’t wiped out polio, even though Bill Gates is throwing billions at the problem. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/4 "2004-11-30T00:27:35Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I assume that WHO scientists know what causes Avian flu, so if so, why not just cook up some vaccine? I don’t know whether they’ve identified the strains, but apparently, they’re already trying to cook up some vaccine. I watched a report about it, perhaps a couple weeks ago. They were interviewing some scientists (probably from the Pasteur institute) who were testing potential vaccines. I vaguely remember that they expected to find a reliable one relatively quickly (but I don’t remember at all how much time they estimated it could take), but even then, it will take months to produce it in large number, according to them. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/5 "2004-11-30T00:31:43Z")
Actually, I’ve been watching this very closely. But I made a promise to myself, not to post in huge letters, or to scream about how this could destroy us all… destroy us all… destroy us all… destroy us all… destroy us all… destroy us all… 😉😃😛😃😃😃 ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/6 "2004-11-30T00:42:26Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > destroy us all… Nah, 50,000,000 out of about 6,373,000,000 is just between 0.5 and 1% of the world’s population. Hardly anything to worry about. OR 50,000,000!?! Holy Crap, that’s like the entire population of England! Maybe _28 Days Later_ was right?!? ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/7 "2004-11-30T00:56:01Z")
Did you read the whole article you linked to? It mentions vaccines: > [@](#): > > “Vaccines are very useful in reducing the scale of a pandemic but it is not a magic blitz in averting a pandemic,” Omi said. > > Due to commercial reasons, mass production of vaccines would only start after a pandemic begins, which means it would only reach the public after a time-lag of at least five to six months. Flu vaccines take a long time to prepare. The virus has to be cultivated in eggs for months. In addition, it’s not quite as simple as knowing which strains are causing infection. They have to try to make a vaccine that will work against them and test it before they put it into production. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/8 "2004-11-30T01:03:41Z")
> [@iamthewalrus(:3=](#): > > Did you read the whole article you linked to? It mentions vaccines: > Flu vaccines take a long time to prepare. The virus has to be cultivated in eggs for months. In addition, it’s not quite as simple as knowing which strains are causing infection. They have to try to make a vaccine that will work against them and test it before they put it into production. Eh, just put it in the mashed potatoes. It worked with the mammy-nuns. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/9 "2004-11-30T01:10:39Z")
> [@iamthewalrus(:3=](#): > > Did you read the whole article you linked to? It mentions vaccines: > Flu vaccines take a long time to prepare. The virus has to be cultivated in eggs for months. In addition, it’s not quite as simple as knowing which strains are causing infection. They have to try to make a vaccine that will work against them and test it before they put it into production. No, I missed that; thought that they were just talking about some of the poultry killoffs (the second section begins and ends with discussions of livestocks, with the vaccine question dumped in the middle). Anyway, I don’t really get the “due to commercial reasons” bit. It would seem that at times public health ought to trump market considerations. And from a macroeconomic scale it would also seem that any costs would be more worthwhile than 50,000,000 dead plus healthcare costs associated with a pandemic. Thanks for explaining why it takes so long to create a vaccine. ---
**Author:** ![Loopydude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e56c9b/32.png) [@Loopydude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loopydude)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/10 "2004-11-30T02:55:48Z")
Huh. And just a little while ago I was shuddering over the thought of a new strain of virus that might kill huge numbers while posting in another thread… Time for more Happy Brain Bleach. ---
**Author:** ![Zsofia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7bcc69/32.png) [@Zsofia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zsofia)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/11 "2004-11-30T03:07:52Z")
**The Great Influenza** is a great book on the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic and has a lot about the flu virus, how it mutates and behaves itself, and what the medical community of the time did to combat the disease. It’s fascinating reading - I’d had no idea that there were American cities digging mass graves for people in the 20th century for the _flu_. ---
**Author:** ![Loopydude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e56c9b/32.png) [@Loopydude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loopydude)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/12 "2004-11-30T04:43:03Z")
Just read a NYT article about it…I know virtually nothing about hard epidemiology, but I didn’t find the article all that illuminating. Maybe the virus will recombine with human influenza strains…maybe it’ll mutate…maybe monkeys will fly out of my butt. There seem to be wildly different estimates about the virus’ actual lethality. I’m sure these guys are being responsible in warning us, but whatever change would be needed for the virus to kill tens of millions of people hasn’t happened yet. ---
**Author:** ![QuarkChild](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/c5a1d2/32.png) [@QuarkChild](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuarkChild)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/13 "2004-11-30T05:33:35Z")
I read **The Great Influenza** recently. It was really informative. I, too, would recommend it highly. One thing the author emphasized is that in the influenza pandemic of 1918, many of the people who died were healthy young adults. Apparently that strain of flu kills healthy people via their own immune response–people with slightly less robust immune systems (middle aged adults, children) were actually more likely to survive. As a healthy young adult, reading about that was really scary. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/14 "2004-11-30T12:29:21Z")
> [@Zsofia](#): > > **The Great Influenza** is a great book on the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic and has a lot about the flu virus, how it mutates and behaves itself, and what the medical community of the time did to combat the disease. It’s fascinating reading - I’d had no idea that there were American cities digging mass graves for people in the 20th century for the _flu_. i’m very familiar with it. I _also_ located some graves in Murfreesboro’s Evergreen Cemetary from that period, that actually mention influenza. Hard to believe that _anything_ happened in Murfreesboro since the Civil War, but there you go… ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2004, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bird-flu-more-deadly-than-sars/277235/15 "2004-11-30T23:03:51Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > i’m very familiar with it. > > I _also_ located some graves in Murfreesboro’s Evergreen Cemetary from that period, that actually mention influenza. > > Hard to believe that _anything_ happened in Murfreesboro since the Civil War, but there you go… Hell, I’ve _lived_ in Murfreesboro and it’s hard to believe that anything happened there before, during, or after the Civil War. 😃 In my home town in Ohio, during the Great Influenza outbreak, the town doctor slept in his car parked in the town square, so that residents of the tiny town (many of whom _did not_ have electricity, muchless a telephone) could find him easily.