# Blair on Brexit **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 17, 2017, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053 "2017-02-17T14:42:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/1 "2017-02-17T14:42:05Z")
As he hinted he might some months ago, Tony Blair has stepped into the Brexit debate with a major speech outlining not just the case against Brexit, but also the case for a democratic reversal of the referendum decision. It’s a hell of a speech, if not without its flaws. UK opinion is, at best, divided about the man but his one consistent character trait is belief that you win in politics by persuading people to change their mind in your favour: “_winning the argument from the force of the argument,_” as he says in the speech. As such, he lays out a very thorough case not against Brexit in general but against the particular course that the government is following. You can read it in full [here](http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/full-transcript-tony-blairs-brexit-speech/); some excerpts below include: > [@Tony Blair](#): > > What was unfortunately only dim in our sight before the referendum is now in plain sight. The road we’re going down is not simply Hard Brexit. It is Brexit At Any Cost. Our challenge is to expose relentlessly what this cost is, to show how the decision was based on imperfect knowledge which will now become informed knowledge, to calculate in ‘easy to understand’ ways how proceeding will cause real damage to our country; and to build support for finding a way out from the present rush over the cliff’s edge. I don’t know if we can succeed. But I do know we will suffer a rancorous verdict from future generations if we do not try. > [@TB](#): > > The Leave campaign was a coalition, some against Europe for economic reasons; some for cultural reasons. Some were ideological in their opposition; some had done a cost/benefit analysis and concluded better out than in. We must expose the agenda of the ideologues; and persuade those interested in the cost/benefit ratio. For the latter, we must – day in day out – articulate the reality: the pain is large and the gain largely illusory. But the ideologues are the ones driving this bus. The economic future which could work outside of Europe is exactly the low tax, light regulation, offshore free market hub, with which Mrs May threatens our European neighbours, but which to the Brexit ideologues is a promise of things to come. > > Indeed, this is what many in business say they’re being told by Government Ministers, but of course behind the hand, because this is the exact opposite of what the mass of voters are being told when promised a fairer capitalism with a better deal for the workers. This free market vision would require major re-structuring of the British economy and its tax and welfare system. > > It will not mean more money for the NHS but less; actually it probably means a wholesale rebalancing of our healthcare towards one based on private as much as public provision. It will not mean more protection for workers, but less. And if that were what we wanted to do as a country, we could do it now. Europe wouldn’t stop us. But as of now the British people would, because they wouldn’t vote for it. So the ideologues know they have to get Brexit first; then tell us this is the only future which works; and by that time they will be right > [@TB](#): > > But were we to be true to the concept of Government through British Parliamentary democracy, rather than Government by one-off plebiscite, we would also feel obliged to point out that it isn’t a question of just ‘getting on with it’. This is not a decision that once made is then a mere matter of mechanics to implement. It is a decision which then begets many other decisions. Every part of this negotiation from money to access to post Brexit arrangements is itself an immense decision with consequence. If we were in a rational world, we would all the time, as we approach those decisions, be asking: why are we doing this and as we know more of the costs, is the pain worth the gain? This is the first serious, coherent anti-Brexit speech I’ve seen in a long, long time. It talks about the downsides without threatening an immediate recession and emergency budget; it challenges the rhetoric of Leave; it shows the positive arguments for being in the EU; it lays out an intelligent case in clear language; above all, it’s a speech that believes in itself and doesn’t apologise for having a point of view people might disagree with. However, good though the speech is, it’s got a fatal problem: it’s been delivered by Tony Blair. I don’t think he realises just how far his star has fallen with the average voter. Even discounting Iraq, he is now the epitome of the “global liberal elite” which was so successfully painted as the root of ordinary people’s problems in the referendum campaign. He just doesn’t have the sympathy of the audience any more, not even from the pro-Remain left. This is a crying shame because I think he makes two fundamental points that deserve to be heard: 1. As we learn more about the specific details of what Brexit will mean in practical terms, it will be entirely fair to ask ourselves if this is what we really want. 2. Continuing to argue for what you believe in order to persuade people who disagree with you is what democracy is all about. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/2 "2017-02-17T14:53:39Z")
Knew I’d seen a stat somewhere: According to [YouGov](https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832555587791646720), Blair’s net favourability rating is **-60** which is worse than Corbyn. Just the wrong guy for the job. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/3 "2017-02-17T14:58:26Z")
Maybe I missed it but he’s taking a very short-term view. Many of those to whom I spoke who voted for Brexit said that they expected a short-term hit on the economy and a longer-term gain. And he tries to change the argument right from the start: > [@](#): > > But the people voted without knowledge of the terms of Brexit. As these terms become clear, it is their right to change their mind. Sorry, but it was clear at the time that there were no plans. > [@Stanislaus](#): > > However, good though the speech is, it’s got a fatal problem: it’s been delivered by Tony Blair. Spot on. > [@](#): > > 1. As we learn more about the specific details of what Brexit will mean in practical terms, it will be entirely fair to ask ourselves if this is what we really want. Not really: this is the point of Parliament having a vote. > [@](#): > > 1. Continuing to argue for what you believe in order to persuade people who disagree with you is what democracy is all about. Yes, and shows the importance of not shutting down a debate just because you disagree or dislike. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/4 "2017-02-17T15:22:04Z")
**Quartz** , I don’t understand what you mean when you say that there were no plans. Obviously there were no specific plans on the ballot paper, but equally obviously there \*\*will \*\*be a specific plan once Article 50 negotiations are complete - that’s the whole point of the negotiations. Britain and the EU will agree that: Britain owes _£x billion_, not _£y billion_ towards its existing financial commitments; the rights of EU citizens in the UK/UK citizens in the EU will be _such-and-such_ not _so-and-so_; immigration will work like _this_, not like _that_; transition will involve \*these \*tariffs but not \*those \*ones, \*this \*customs schedule but not _that_; the UK will access the single market on \*these \*terms but not \*those \*ones. That deal will be the plan for Brexit. And there will be _a_ deal. There cannot be null values against all these variables. No-one - including Parliament - can say now whether that deal is good for Britain because it doesn’t exist yet. But once it does exist, the people of Britain will have a collective opinion on whether it’s a good deal or not. Should that opinion be listened to? If the opinion is that it is a bad deal, what should happen next? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/5 "2017-02-17T16:48:34Z")
ISTM that this is like someone laying out a clear, coherent argument as to why electing Trump was the wrong decision. It’s a very logical, reasonable case - except that, what kind of precedent would be set by that? It’s laying out a very reasonable case for something that cannot nor should be done. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/6 "2017-02-17T17:00:58Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > ISTM that this is like someone laying out a clear, coherent argument as to why electing Trump was the wrong decision. It’s a very logical, reasonable case - except that, what kind of precedent would be set by that? > > It’s laying out a very reasonable case for something that cannot nor should be done. I don’t follow I’m afraid - what cannot nor should not be done? If you mean revoking Article 50, I don’t agree - if (and it’s a big if) the will of the people is that whatever deal we eventually get sucks so much we’d be better off staying in Europe, then revoking Article 50 is exactly what should be done. There are very real questions about whether that is even possible, but in principle the will of the people should prevail. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/7 "2017-02-17T17:11:59Z")
Blair is still a magnificent communicator, but it is rather easy to dismiss him on the European issue. Had Blair had his way Britain would be stuck in the European single currency right now. He talks a good game, he really does, but his own instincts on Britain’s relationship with Europe suggest his vision thing on the EU is fundamentally wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/8 "2017-02-17T17:20:06Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > **Quartz** , I don’t understand what you mean when you say that there were no plans. I mean simply that. At the time of the referendum there were no plans for how to effect Brexit. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/9 "2017-02-17T17:43:42Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I mean simply that. At the time of the referendum there were no plans for how to effect Brexit. Exactly. No-one in Government had seriously considered the possibility of losing the referendum, so no real plans were made for what would happen then. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/10 "2017-02-17T18:50:20Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I mean simply that. At the time of the referendum there were no plans for how to effect Brexit. > [@Steophan](#): > > Exactly. No-one in Government had seriously considered the possibility of losing the referendum, so no real plans were made for what would happen then. Well yes. But so what? There has to be a plan. Even “crash out and revert to WTO rules” is a plan. People will have an opinion on the plan, once it’s made. That opinion matters. It matters as much, or probably even more than, the general intention to leave the EU under some plan or other. So there should be a democratic decision about it. Right? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/11 "2017-02-17T19:13:52Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Exactly. No-one in Government had seriously considered the possibility of losing the referendum, so no real plans were made for what would happen then. It goes further than that: those voting for Brexit knew **and accepted** that those proposing Brexit did not have a plan. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/12 "2017-02-17T19:33:07Z")
Am I the only one on here to see the referendum result as a bargaining chip in a redefined relationship, and hopefully a redefined union? Brexit/remain/hard/soft, etc,etc - seems so much smoke and mirrors; the central issue is German intransigence on free movement because it suits the German economy - this isn’t some liberal wank fantasy about being _nice_. And frankly, while I on it, the whole point of the EU and Euro is to benefit the German economy - currently booming at record rates and sucking in 1m immigrants to sustain it, while Greece and Spain burn. And fuck Blair. ---
**Author:** ![lilihob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a9adbd/32.png) [@lilihob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lilihob)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/13 "2017-02-17T19:39:14Z")
I live in London, it overwhelmingly voted Remain. There is a general sense of annoyance that Blair spoke up. I don’t think outside the U.K. really understand how much that man is hated here. My Polish neighbour told me that he feels that the Brexiteers must have peed their pants in glee when Blair spoke up for Remain. He is literally the worst person at the moment to have on your side. He would have done more for Remain if he had pretended to be pro Brexit. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/14 "2017-02-17T19:55:04Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > It goes further than that: those voting for Brexit knew **and accepted** that those proposing Brexit did not have a plan. Cite please. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/15 "2017-02-17T20:02:15Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > It goes further than that: those voting for Brexit knew **and accepted** that those proposing Brexit did not have a plan. Apart, of course, from being able to divert £350 million a week to the NHS, stop immigration, ignore any inconvenient regulations, and all the rest of it. They may not have had a plan, but they had plenty of promises. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/16 "2017-02-17T20:21:51Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Am I the only one on here to see the referendum result as a bargaining chip in a redefined relationship, and hopefully a redefined union? > > Brexit/remain/hard/soft, etc,etc - seems so much smoke and mirrors; the central issue is German intransigence on free movement because it suits the German economy - this isn’t some liberal wank fantasy about being _nice_. > > And frankly, while I on it, the whole point of the EU and Euro is to benefit the German economy - currently booming at record rates and sucking in 1m immigrants to sustain it, while Greece and Spain burn. > > And fuck Blair. There is a real difference between being in the customs union and out of it, between having financial passporting and not, between sharing a regulatory framework and not, between paying £60bn for our ongoing commitments and paying £10bn. This isn’t smoke and mirrors, this is hard practicalities. And my liberal wank fantasy isn’t about being nice\* - it’s about having an economic policy that “suits the economy”. If you think austerity is bad now, wait until we’ve got three times as many pensioners as tax payers and see what happens to public services. \*It’s also about Tony Blair looking deep into my eyes and saying “Look, I’m a pretty straight sort of guy” but we’ve all got our little peccadilloes. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/17 "2017-02-17T20:23:37Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > It goes further than that: those voting for Brexit knew **and accepted** that those proposing Brexit did not have a plan. WTF are you talking about. No, it isn’t a question. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/18 "2017-02-17T20:28:27Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > There is a real difference between being in the customs union and out of it, between having financial passporting and not, between sharing a regulatory framework and not, between paying £60bn for our ongoing commitments and paying £10bn. This isn’t smoke and mirrors, this is hard practicalities. > > And my liberal wank fantasy isn’t about being nice\* - it’s about having an economic policy that “suits the economy”. If you think austerity is bad now, wait until we’ve got three times as many pensioners as tax payers and see what happens to public services. I’m glad to see some realism about the purpose of immigration. We need only look to Japan for the economic and social future if the country doesn’t address the declining birth rate/aging population dynamic. Of course, some might argue endless growth is not a solution either - where does that ultimately end. But it is at least acknowledging the great challenge that faces all industrialised nations, which is currently being answered by unsustainable, undesirable even, _growth_ ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/19 "2017-02-17T20:46:00Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > Cite please. Sure: the result. As I’m sure you’re aware, before the referendum, there was no one Plan (compare with the Scottish independence referendum). ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2017, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053/20 "2017-02-18T06:54:03Z")
The plan is to trigger the legal process and negotiate an exit. Is that overly complicated, or do you think leaving the EU is like organising a day trip to Calais? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-on-brexit/780053.md?page=2)