# Blair to quit at end of 3rd term. What happens now? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 7, 2004, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017 "2004-10-07T13:47:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![owlstretchingtime](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/958977/32.png) [@owlstretchingtime](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/owlstretchingtime)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/21 "2004-10-08T12:35:53Z")
> [@Futile Gesture](#): > > Do you recall _at all_ the mess that the “other lot” made? Does the name “Lamont” mean anything??? . The name “Lamont” means to me: Balanced budgets, lower taxes and a penchant for raffles fags and renting his flat to a tart. I’ll take that over high taxes, huge deficits, massively expanded public sector payroll (none of whom actually DO anything - they just write each other memos) > [@Futile Gesture](#): > > And no-one could accuse the Tory government of spending money on their 'client classes, huh? :rolleyes: Give away privatisation anyone??? . Would that be giving people a chance to own something rather than be serfs in their own country? It was the first time that loads of people owned shares and took an active part in the economy. Can you actually remember what Britain was like prior to 1979? It was like poland, genuinely a second-world country. > [@Futile Gesture](#): > > Any large companies around with space on the board that fancies a public asset at a knock-down price?. Two words old bean - Arthur Andersen. > [@Futile Gesture](#): > > No matter how much a prat Blair has been, and we’ll be glad to see the back of him, you cannot fault what Brown has done with the economy. . Can and will. > [@Futile Gesture](#): > > Or perhaps Ireland have simply been better than us these last 10 years. No need to talk down their achievements. Actually i could run a fairly sucessful country if my neighbours paid for everything. But even leaving that aside the Irish have suceeded by following good Tory-type policies such as low corporation tax. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/22 "2004-10-08T12:45:35Z")
> [@](#): > > The name “Lamont” means to me: Balanced budgets, lower taxes Oh, come on - this is absurd revisionism. Black Monday was the single biggest blunder by a UK government in living memory, and Major’s government practically _invented_ the term “stealth tax”. Brown has made gaffes as well (_eg._ gold) but none so monumental. > [@](#): > > the Irish have suceeded by following good Tory-type policies such as low corporation tax. _And_ a European level of GDPpc health and education spending, which nevertheless still leaves a [15% poverty rate](http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1321313,00.html). ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/23 "2004-10-08T12:57:24Z")
(For foriegn readers, [Black Monday](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday) was of course a global event not \*caused[/]i by Lamont’s actions - however, his use of vast quantities of public money in an attempt to stave off the inevitable was the equivalent of running at tilt in a casino and blowing hlf your mortgage.) ---
**Author:** ![owlstretchingtime](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/958977/32.png) [@owlstretchingtime](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/owlstretchingtime)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/24 "2004-10-08T13:05:23Z")
> [@SentientMeat](#): > > Oh, come on - this is absurd revisionism. Black Monday was the single biggest blunder by a UK government in living memory, and Major’s government practically _invented_ the term “stealth tax”. Brown has made gaffes as well (_eg._ gold) but none so monumental. Now the problem we have here is that you are blaming two men for this. I would blame an entire continent. Black Monday was a function of trying to tie Britain to the EU economic cycle - something we have never been even close to in synch with. I thought it was a bad idea at the time and I think it’s a positively howl-at-the-moon bad idea now. There’s a word for people who want to do this - Blairites (or “ladies’ front bottoms” in it’s shorter form). The only thing you need to know is that “tax freedom day” gets closer to christmas under labour governments . Nigel Lawson: Best. Chancellor. Ever. (Foxy daughter too) > [@SentientMeat](#): > > _And_ a European level of GDPpc health and education spending, which nevertheless still leaves a [15% poverty rate](http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1321313,00.html). Unfortunately the poor will always be with us. This is a simple fact. Some people are better at enriching themselves than others. The labour party thinks that those people should pay for the lifestyles of the others. I don’t. Therein lies the difference ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/25 "2004-10-08T13:15:47Z")
> [@](#): > > Black Monday was a function of trying to tie Britain to the EU economic cycle It was a global event due to overpriced and underflexible markets. Lamonts ruinously expensive attempt to stop that inexorable tide has history calling him a “Cnut” of a Chancellor. History misspells slightly. > [@](#): > > Unfortunately the poor will always be with us. Yes, game theory does indeed predict a few Big Winners and many Big Losers due to a position of advantage facilitating consolidation of that advantage towards eventual monopoly. Democratic government’s job is to _prevent_ such monopolistic economic coercion, which can be just as tyrannical as authoritarian government. Taxation as theft is a tired old canard. ---
**Author:** ![owlstretchingtime](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/958977/32.png) [@owlstretchingtime](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/owlstretchingtime)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/26 "2004-10-08T13:29:24Z")
Black Monday (wasn’t it actually a wednesday and black monday was when the stock market went mental?) is conclusive proof that you really can’t buck the market. It was wrong to try. Currencies should float freely, as should pretty much everything else. As it happens I really don’t mind paying taxes - it’s just a question of where they go. In common with most Tories I wouldn’t dismantle the NHS (although I do think that it needs a RADICAL rethink) and I think it’s a good thing that education is free (if a bit crap) and so on. I am lucky enough to have a choice and you wouldn’t catch me or any of my family in a NHS ward or state school - but I am glad they’re there for them that needs them. However I don’t think the governement can spend my money better than I can. I also think that Labour governements are structurally incompetent because they start from a position that is untenable - ie socialism. It doesn’t work - that’s why they’re crap at the economy. That and the fact that none of them have ever had proper jobs. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/27 "2004-10-08T13:39:34Z")
Well then, you agree with me _and_ the current Labour party about the _scope_ of government and merely quibble about the precise numbers allotted to each particular concern. The current reds and blues like to grandstand and castigate each other like they were mortal enemies, but the main streams of both parties are far _far_ more similar to _each other_ than to the extremes _within_ those parties. You think the _current_ Labour party are “socialist”? They are capitalists through and through, as you are. [This](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_socialism) is socialism. And it doesn’t take sugar on its porridege, neither! ---
**Author:** ![Futile\_Gesture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/f05b48/32.png) [@Futile\_Gesture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Futile_Gesture)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/28 "2004-10-08T13:51:02Z")
> [@owlstretchingtime](#): > > However I don’t think the governement can spend my money better than I can. Hmmm. Bought any national health systems recently? Invested in any housing policies? > [@](#): > > I also think that Labour governements are structurally incompetent because they start from a position that is untenable - ie socialism. Socialist? Tony Blair??? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![owlstretchingtime](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/958977/32.png) [@owlstretchingtime](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/owlstretchingtime)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/29 "2004-10-08T14:59:06Z")
> [@Futile Gesture](#): > > Hmmm. Bought any national health systems recently? Invested in any housing policies? > > Socialist? Tony Blair??? :dubious: I have bought Health insurance (better than the NHS) and a house (better than a council house) - see what I mean? And if those bloody trots stopped taking all of my money to spend on lesbian out-reach workers and disabled puppet theatres I’d buy a bigger house, and some beer. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/30 "2004-10-08T15:02:21Z")
> [@](#): > > disabled puppet theatres That is a despicable way to treat wheelchair users. What next, Stephen Hawking vs. Christopher Reeve on _Robot Wars_? ---
**Author:** ![Avenger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Avenger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Avenger)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/31 "2004-10-08T15:24:16Z")
> [@owlstretchingtime](#): > > I have bought Health insurance (better than the NHS) and a house (better than a council house) - see what I mean? > > And if those bloody trots stopped taking all of my money to spend on lesbian out-reach workers and disabled puppet theatres I’d buy a bigger house, and some beer. Was just wondering what was in todays Daily Mail… ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/32 "2004-10-08T15:40:51Z")
Incidentally, **Avenger** , where are you in Cardiff these days? Dont’ you originally hail from Swansea (or was that **Vetch**?) or Greece (or was someone else too)? I live down by the stadium, but my band plays various venues around here. ---
**Author:** ![Avenger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Avenger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Avenger)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/33 "2004-10-08T15:47:40Z")
> [@SentientMeat](#): > > Incidentally, **Avenger** , where are you in Cardiff these days? Dont’ you originally hail from Swansea (or was that **Vetch**?) or Greece (or was someone else too)? > > I live down by the stadium, but my band plays various venues around here. No, I have never lived in Swansea, that is indeed Vetch I believe, after the decrepit and soon to be knocked/fall down football ground. Not a clue about Greece?! I am originally from Northampton, live on the edge of the City Centre, Adamsdown. I work just off Westgate Street, so can see the stadium out the window (when I’m there!) ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/34 "2004-10-08T17:40:20Z")
Adamsdown - know it well. I used to live on Clifton St in my PhD days and we regularly play in the Royal Oak on Broadway. Look out for Fire Down Below (terrible name I know, but it’s been going since the year I was born!) - I’m the insufferable show-off of a guitarist. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/35 "2004-10-08T18:30:19Z")
Sorry to hijack, but I just have to ask what these phrases mean – > [@owlstretchingtime](#): > > (texture like sun) > [@](#): > > As Mrs Merton would say ---
**Author:** ![Avenger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Avenger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Avenger)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/36 "2004-10-08T18:36:04Z")
Texture like sun - reference to ‘Golden Brown’ (rather than Gordon Brown) by The Stranglers. Mrs Merton is a spoof TV chat show host ([link](http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/guide/articles/m/mrsmertonshowthe_7774610.shtml) ), ‘lets have a heated debate was one of her catchphrases’. **SentientMeat** , never heard of your band 😛 , but I do know where the Royal Oak is. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/37 "2004-10-08T19:12:03Z")
> [@owlstretchingtime](#): > > Well they’ve done a pretty good job of buggering it up so far. really? I seem to think he’s done a good job, well when I say that, I mean the government on a whole. Better than the Tories, and don’t ever let the lib dems in, I don’t like the idea of being taxed because I am successful at my job and get paid highly for it. We need a conservative revival. ---
**Author:** ![Avenger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Avenger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Avenger)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/38 "2004-10-08T19:16:31Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > really? I seem to think he’s done a good job, well when I say that, I mean the government on a whole. Better than the Tories, and don’t ever let the lib dems in, I don’t like the idea of being taxed because I am successful at my job and get paid highly for it. > > We need a conservative revival. I don’t think that there are any UK parties who do not believe that the amount you pay in tax should be proportional to the amount you earn. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2004, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/39 "2004-10-09T00:56:47Z")
It’s funny, that’s similar to a situation we had here in the colonies with our last turnover. Chretien gave 14 months notice of his resignation- his rival Paul Martin, the Minister of Finance, was none to pleased with this pace. However, Paul Martin’s crew had long had a strangle hold on the party apparatus so no rival had a chance at the leadership convention. Chretien loyalists left over after the handover did not fare well. It also turned out Chretien left a few scandals bubbling in the back room to boil over after his retirement- final result: a minority government. Now ~1 week into first post-election session. It’ll be fun to see when/if the experiments diverge. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2004, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017/40 "2004-10-09T17:40:27Z")
I’m not sure that Blair’s going to get a third term. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems have had their backsides kicked into gear, both have made significant gains in local elections and we can expect an election in the middle of next year - effectively the campaign has begun now. I expect Labour to lose a significant number of seats at the next election - unless the opposition parties split the opposition vote as happenned in the 1980s. It is entirely possible that the Lib Dems and the Irish parties will hold the balance of power after the next election. Remember that the PM is the person who can command a majority in the House of Commons. Charles Kennedy could tell the Labour party that he’d join them in a coalition but not under Blair. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/blair-to-quit-at-end-of-3rd-term-what-happens-now/268017.md?page=3)