Someone has leaked what they say is the List of ERG members on twitter, and I think three of the eleven candidates seem to be members (for some reason I confuse Liam Fox with Jeremy Hunt, I think I can see why that is now in words, but I thought Fox was a candidate).
The ERG is the extreme right of the Tory party which shows that you can trick people into thinking they know something about a subject by sticking a Research Group after it, when it’s been shown they’ve known little about the workings of the EU. It should probably be called the European Drinking Group. The list has been quite secretive apparently, I thought it was known already.
Interesting missing things is Dominic Raab isn’t it, who was the Brexit secretary who didn’t even know that most food in the UK is imported via Dover.. I guess they didn’t want anyone dribbling on the tables and make their beer slide around.
That’s an interesting and logically defensible plan to winnow the field before the slanging gets going in public in earnest. Helps with the appearance at least of Tory party unity, comity, etc.
One wonders whether it was just thought up because there’s a conveniently located gap in the support levels between the establishment heirs presumptive and the rabblerousers / revolutionaries, or whether this is long standing policy?
Well beyond my small knowledge of British party politics.
Parties make their own rules on internal elections. The Tory rule was for some time that a minimum of 5% (which would be 18 MPs on present numbers, so this isn’t a great change) was needed to get into the first ballot, then 10% to get into the second, thereafter they keep voting and knocking out the lowest-placed until they have two names to send out for party members nationally to vote on. Yes, the hurdles are there to try to weed out most of the no-hopers or those just “putting down a marker” for future consideration while allowing for more variety and not just a coronation (which was the failing of the pre-1965 system of informal consultation/ “taking soundings”). If memory serves, the idea of a hurdle has been in place since at least 2001 - before that, the focus was on requiring a front-runner to have a sufficiently large majority over other contenders to win).
The question for the contenders will be, at what point might it harm their career by trying to stay in, or help if they stand down and urge support for someone else?
So now the 1922 committee have decided on the rules, the race is on!
From the BBC website:
Eight candidates make it onto the ballot for the Conservative Party leadership contest
The chair of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, has announced which candidates had received the support of at least 20 MPs needed
Sajid Javid and Rehman Chishti withdraw from the contest just minutes before the deadline
The eight candidates that have made it onto the ballot are, in alphabetical order: Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Tom Tugendhat and Nadhim Zahawi
Successful contenders will go through to a vote on Wednesday, with the final two candidates selected before the end of next week
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps earlier pulled out and endorsed former chancellor Sunak, along with Deputy PM Dominic Raab
Meanwhile, Johnson loyalists Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries have backed Liz Truss
It will move pretty fast and will be down to two by the end of the week. There are only 350 or so MPs voting.
Then it goes to the ordinary Conservative party members, of whom there are a few hundred thousand. That will take a bit longer to organise and plenty of time for plotting, scheming, character assassination, the dangling of plum jobs in front of supporters and campaign roadshows to curry favour with the Conservative party associations.
Meanwhile Boris Johnson will be interfering by appointing replacements for all those who resigned in protest at his mismanagement.
There are going to be some very short lived ministerial appointments.
I am guessing that he cut some deal with the leader of the 1922 committee. He is always short of money and I expect he will be allowed to enjoy the benefits of his office in return for keeping quiet and behaving himself until a leader is elected in September.
I suspect he wants a platform at the party conference to restart his career and maybe another term after some new PM takes the flak for Boris’s many failures.
Populists have a hold on parties that are very weak and unable to connect with voters. It will be interesting to see if the Conservatives can get rid of Boris or whether he will be forever pulling strings in the background.
Any bets on who will be the two candidates left on the ballot at the end of the week?
I greatly enjoyed the clip of John Bercow at work managing the chaos. Thank you!
Were the US Congress to ever get quite that rowdy, they’d need gunfire to calm things back down. Frankly nowadays it’s probably a good thing they don’t let Congressmen carry in the chamber*, or we’d be having by-elections to replace recent shooters & shootees almost weekly.
* Two thoughts:
There’s a great guns’n’ammo double entendre in there somewhere but I’m too lazy to tease it out.
I know it harkens back to the joke/meme about “Do British people talk like that when Americans aren’t listening?” but Bercow’s “Ohhhh-daaahhh!” always strikes me as the super-extreme Received Pronounciation that the Etonian/Oxbridge crowd dial up to eleven for show, in keeping with the overt theatricality of Westminster.
Except that Bercow (whose father was a taxi driver) went to state schools and the University of Essex. Come to think of it, the last four (at least) Speakers have come from relatively .modest backgrounds. There aren’t that many ways to call to order the overexcited - the soft answer doesn’t always turn away wrath (however factitious). And don’t forget, what ends up on Youtube are the relatively rare exceptional occasions.
Eight over the first hurdle on to the first round ballot paper (Javid and Patel have ruled themselves out). Sunak is the front-runner. Anyone with fewer than 30 votes tonight will be out. Thereafter, successive votes to knock out the lowest placed (and possibly persuade others to withdraw in favour of someone else).
Kemi Badenoch, Former levelling up minister - No Chance
Suella Braverman, Attorney General - No Chance
Jeremy Hunt, Former Health Secretay - Unlikely
Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for Trade Policy - Probably in 3rd, will likely be in a race with Liz Truss for Brexit/Leveling Up MP’s
Rishi Sunak, Former Chancellor of the Exchequer - Leading contender, almost sure to be in the last two
Liz Truss, Foreign Secretary - Probably in 2nd, but has questions about popularity with fellow Conservative MP’s
Tom Tugendhat, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee - Longshot
Nadhim Zahawi, New Chancellor of the Exchequer - Unlikely
I’m going to say that Sunak and Mordaunt will be in the final two. But a lot of MP’s votes will be based on promises and deal-making, so guesses based on what TV political analysts are saying aren’t based on what’s happening in private discussions and arrangements between MP’s.
