# Both houses in Virginia flip from R to D and Kentucky Governor too! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2019, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078 "2019-11-06T14:09:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/21 "2019-11-06T19:54:02Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > 1. Kentucky has a _long_ history of electing dems for governor ([only 3 Republican governors in the last 70+ years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_governors_of_Kentucky)) True, but bear in mind that, up until the early 1960s, while much of the South was staunchly Democratic, many white Democrats from southern states were segregationists, who left the Democratic party for the GOP in the wake of Democratic support for integration and the civil rights movement. What’s relevant for a modern comparison is looking at the parties of Kentucky governors since 1970, though that still proves your point, since most have, in fact, been Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/22 "2019-11-06T20:01:43Z")
The Kentucky win is a minor snub to Trump, Virginia looms much larger for the Democrats fortunes. ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/23 "2019-11-06T20:07:49Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Not to rain on your parade (well, kind of), but I think you’re reading far too much into this Kentucky win. > > 1. Kentucky has a _long_ history of electing dems for governor ([only 3 Republican governors in the last 70+ years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_governors_of_Kentucky)) > > 2. Bevin’s loss has far more to do with his own personal unpopularity than some party realignment in the suburbs. While Bevin was losing his race by ~5,000 votes, the Republican candidates were trouncing the dems in statewide races for Secretary of State (by ~65,000 votes), Attorney General (by ~221,000 votes), Treasurer (by ~301,000 votes), Auditor (by ~205,000 votes), and Agriculture Commissioner (by ~276,000 votes) > I suppose you \*could \*be entering “the golden age of Democratic rule”, but it’s more likely that you’re not. Kentucky hasn’t “turned blue”. While true, McConnell has similar unfavorable ratings to Bevin. That doesn’t bode well for Moscow Mitch next year against American Hero Amy McGrath. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/24 "2019-11-06T20:59:44Z")
Kentucky Republicans are talking about nullifying the Governor’s election and letting the Republican controlled legislature decide. [Beshear vs Bevin: Legislature could decide race, Senate president says](https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/)? ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/25 "2019-11-06T21:02:54Z")
> [@Hypno-Toad](#): > > So the Libertarians pulled 2% of the Kentucky gubernatorial vote which is way more than the margin of victory for the Dems. Strange to see the Libertarian party actually affect something. This was their [statement](https://www.facebook.com/LPKentucky/posts/10157252121401936) following the election: > [@](#): > > In an ideal world, we elect Libertarian candidates and advance liberty. Failing that, we push mainstream candidates towards liberty to advance the cause. > > But if we can’t do those things, we are always happy to split the vote in a way that causes delicious tears. Tonight there are plenty of delicious tears from Bevin supporters. > > Had Matt Bevin not ditched his liberty Lt Governor for a Mitch McConnell picked anti liberty, corrupt running mate who has tried to eliminate Kentuckians jury trial rights, had Matt Bevin not presided over a huge sales tax increase, had Matt Bevin supported any of our key issues on criminal justice reform, marijuana legalization, expanded gaming, cutting taxes, or acted with the least bit of civility, we probably would not have run a candidate. Of course, he did the opposite. And here we are. > > We split the vote. And we could not be more thrilled. If our friends in the major parties do not want this to happen again, they should think about passing ranked choice voting. And supporting our issues. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/26 "2019-11-06T21:05:59Z")
> [@Chisquirrel](#): > > While true, McConnell has similar unfavorable ratings to Bevin. That doesn’t bode well for Moscow Mitch next year against American Hero Amy McGrath. Just to throw some data at “similar”, according to [this](https://morningconsult.com/governor-rankings-q2-19/), Bevin’s approval ratings were 34% approve and 53% disapprove. That same polling outfit’s [Senate ratings](https://morningconsult.com/senator-rankings-q3-19/) show McConnell at 37% approve and 50% disapprove, so, maybe 6 points better than Bevin, who lost by less than 1%. Against a generic dem, McConnell is probably on track to win by 5%. I suppose your hope is that McGrath is going to significantly out-perform a generic dem. Maybe she will, I don’t know, but the KY-6 voters didn’t go for the "American Hero Amy McGrath in the 2018 “blue wave” election. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/27 "2019-11-06T21:08:12Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Not to rain on your parade (well, kind of), but I think you’re reading far too much into this Kentucky win. > > 1. Kentucky has a _long_ history of electing dems for governor ([only 3 Republican governors in the last 70+ years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_governors_of_Kentucky)) > > 2. Bevin’s loss has far more to do with his own personal unpopularity than some party realignment in the suburbs. While Bevin was losing his race by ~5,000 votes, the Republican candidates were trouncing the dems in statewide races for Secretary of State (by ~65,000 votes), Attorney General (by ~221,000 votes), Treasurer (by ~301,000 votes), Auditor (by ~205,000 votes), and Agriculture Commissioner (by ~276,000 votes) > I suppose you \*could \*be entering “the golden age of Democratic rule”, but it’s more likely that you’re not. Kentucky hasn’t “turned blue”. To me what it indicates is that Trump has a very large stranglehold on the Republican party. If Bevin is so unpopular he should have lost the Republican primary. It’s similar to what happened in Alabama with Roy Moore. Trump was able to convince the Republicans to go with someone so far to the right that they lost the general election to a Democrat in a ruby red state. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/28 "2019-11-06T21:14:46Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Kentucky Republicans are talking about nullifying the Governor’s election and letting the Republican controlled legislature decide. > [Beshear vs Bevin: Legislature could decide race, Senate president says](https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/)? “Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner.” Izzat so? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/29 "2019-11-06T21:16:25Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > To me what it indicates is that Trump has a very large stranglehold on the Republican party. If Bevin is so unpopular he should have lost the Republican primary. It’s similar to what happened in Alabama with Roy Moore. Trump was able to convince the Republicans to go with someone so far to the right that they lost the general election to a Democrat in a ruby red state. Maybe, but the Kentucky Republican party picked Bevin (albeit narrowly) way back in May of 2015. President Trump didn’t even declare his candidacy until June. He didn’t have anything like a “stranglehold” the first time Kentucky primary and general-election voters picked Bevin. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/30 "2019-11-06T21:18:33Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Kentucky Republicans are talking about nullifying the Governor’s election and letting the Republican controlled legislature decide. > [Beshear vs Bevin: Legislature could decide race, Senate president says](https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/)? Kind of reminds of when the liberals in Hollywood were begging Trump electors to do something similar. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/31 "2019-11-06T21:21:12Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > “Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner.” > Izzat so? Probably. I’d say almost certainly. I think I’ve only ever known one guy who was essentially a Democrat but voted Libertarian and he’s some Gary Johnson devotee. But “This guy got the votes we wanted” doesn’t make a race “Contested” and I think the largest hurdle for the state senate picking is that the race is unlikely to actually be contested if it’s been recanvassed and potentially recounted and Beshear is still the winner by thousands of votes. At that point, you’re not settling a contested race, you’re just overthrowing the election. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/32 "2019-11-06T21:23:26Z")
“If you took the votes away from that guy, and gave them to our guy instead” seems logical enough for today’s Republican party. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/33 "2019-11-06T21:24:49Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Kind of reminds of when the liberals in Hollywood were begging Trump electors to do something similar. Seems like there’s a significant difference between a random person saying “Government person, overturn it for the love of humanity!” and the actual government person stroking his chin and saying “You know, we COULD just ignore the election and do this instead…” ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/34 "2019-11-06T21:27:53Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > It’s similar to what happened in Alabama with Roy Moore. Trump was able to convince the Republicans to go with someone so far to the right that they lost the general election to a Democrat in a ruby red state. That is NOT why Roy Moore lost, because he was “too far to the right.” It’s because the optics of his past creepy sexual behavior were impossible to overcome. If that scandal hadn’t come to light, he would have won. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/35 "2019-11-06T21:35:10Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > That is NOT why Roy Moore lost, because he was “too far to the right.” It’s because the optics of his past creepy sexual behavior were impossible to overcome. If that scandal hadn’t come to light, he would have won. The scandal came to light prior to the Republican primary, and prior to his being endorsed by Trump. It wasn’t an “October surprise”, it was well known in advance, with plenty of time to go in a different direction. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/36 "2019-11-06T21:51:51Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > True, but bear in mind that, up until the early 1960s, while much of the South was staunchly Democratic, many white Democrats from southern states were segregationists, who left the Democratic party for the GOP in the wake of Democratic support for integration and the civil rights movement. > > What’s relevant for a modern comparison is looking at the parties of Kentucky governors since 1970, though that still proves your point, since most have, in fact, been Democrats. I agree, except you drew the line too early. I grew up in a Southern state, and I would say the switch from Democratic party to Republican was still ongoing into the early 2000s. There was a huge political/ideological realignment of the parties, which took a long time to fully happen. Here is a list of House members who switched parties. [List of United States representatives who switched parties - Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Representatives_who_switched_parties). Starting in the mid-20th Century, you can see a marked shift in Southern state representatives moving from Democrat to Republican, with many occurring into the early 2000s. I take pretty much any “It’s been X-long since a Democrat . . .” whatever, in a Southern state as a fairly meaningless statement because of party realignments in the South. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/37 "2019-11-06T21:54:12Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Kind of reminds of when the liberals in Hollywood were begging Trump electors to do something similar. The members of the state legislature are not electors. ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/38 "2019-11-06T23:05:37Z")
> [@DCnDC](#): > > Thanks for not fucking that up for once, Kentucky. You’re welcome! - **Superdude** , Kentucky resident ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/39 "2019-11-06T23:36:08Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Kind of reminds of when the liberals in Hollywood were begging Trump electors to do something similar. Er, you seem to have confused the actor from the musical (whose name I don’t recall offhand, but whom I stipulate may have been a “Hollywood liberal”) with the actual Alexander Hamilton: > [@The Federalist Papers](#): > > It was desirable that the sense of the people should operate in the choice of the person to whom so important a trust was to be confided. This end will be answered by committing the right of making it, not to any preestablished body, but to men chosen by the people for the special purpose, and at the particular conjuncture. > > It was equally desirable, that the immediate election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice. A small number of persons, selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations… ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2019, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078/40 "2019-11-07T00:04:34Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > To me what it indicates is that Trump has a very large stranglehold on the Republican party. If Bevin is so unpopular he should have lost the Republican primary. It’s similar to what happened in Alabama with Roy Moore. Trump was able to convince the Republicans to go with someone so far to the right that they lost the general election to a Democrat in a ruby red state. Trump [endorsed](https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/politics/southunionstreet/2017/08/08/donald-trump-tweets-endorsement-luther-strange/551290001/) Roy Moore’s _opponent_ in the primary. Moore was a Trump-like candidate, and that may well have been why many Alabama Republicans voted for him, but Trump wasn’t actually trying to convince them of any such thing. (He did, however, endorse Moore _after_ he became the nominee.) And the scandal absolutely _was_ an October surprise, or at any rate a [November one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Moore_sexual_misconduct_allegations). There were, of course, people in Alabama who had firsthand knowledge that he had a creepy level of interest in young girls, and some of those people talked about it, but the _Washington Post_ didn’t officially break the story until November 9, well after the primary. [Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama#Polling_4) shows a strong swing toward Jones after the story broke, although there had certainly been fears among Republicans that Moore was too extreme to win before that (which is why Trump endorsed his opponent in the first place). Not gonna argue against the idea that Trump has a stranglehold on the party, but the Alabama special election isn’t the best example. If anything, it shows that an endorsement from Trump is not an especially powerful force, even in a very red state. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/both-houses-in-virginia-flip-from-r-to-d-and-kentucky-governor-too/843078.md?page=3)