# Box Office Prediction Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [April 29, 2003, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947 "2003-04-29T16:55:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/1 "2003-04-29T16:55:24Z")
I will give out a yet-to-be-determined prize to the winner of this contest, I promise it will be a pretty nifty prize. The idea is to guess the opening Box Office weekend domestic US dollar take for the following movies. To make my life slightly easier, I must have your predictions in for all the movies by Midnight Thursday (SDMB time). If you fail to make a guess for a movie you are out of the competition…sorry. You can change your guess up until the cut-off time. Your score will be the accumulation of the absolute difference for each movie (over guessing one week will not negate underguessing another week) between your guess and the actual. I have one movie picked per week for the next ten weeks. Here they are: [ul] **X2: X-Men United** - Opens May 2 **Daddy Day Care** - Opens May 9 **The Matric Reloaded** - Opens May 15 **Bruce Almighty** - Opens May 23 **Finding Nemo** - Opens May 30 **2 Fast 2 Furious** - Opens June 6 **Hollywood Homicide** - Opens June 13 **Hulk** - Opens June 20 **Charlie Angels 2: Full Throttle** - Opens June 27 **Terminator 3: The Rise of the Machines** - Opens July 2 [/ul] The official source for weekend box office for the purpose of this competition will be Yahoo! [http://movies.yahoo.com/boxoffice/latest/rank.html](http://movies.yahoo.com/boxoffice/latest/rank.html) ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/2 "2003-04-29T18:18:23Z")
X2: X-Men United - $48 million Daddy Day Care - $29 million The Matric Reloaded - $51 million Bruce Almighty - $27 million Finding Nemo - $16 million 2 Fast 2 Furious - $31 million Hollywood Homicide - $25 million Hulk - $35 million Charlie Angels 2: Full Throttle - $26 million Terminator 3: The Rise of the Machines - $53 million ---
**Author:** ![Wolverine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ba9def/32.png) [@Wolverine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wolverine)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/3 "2003-04-29T18:27:54Z")
X2: X-Men United - 55 million Daddy Day Care - 15 million The Matric Reloaded - 60 million Bruce Almighty - 35 million Finding Nemo - 20 million 2 Fast 2 Furious - 30 million Hollywood Homicide - 10 million Hulk - 80 million Charlie Angels 2: Full Throttle - 35 million Terminator 3: The Rise of the Machines - 40 million ---
**Author:** ![Gozu\_Tashoya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/7993a0/32.png) [@Gozu\_Tashoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gozu_Tashoya)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/4 "2003-04-29T19:59:48Z")
So can we pull a “The Price is Right” and just add $1 to other people’s guesses? 😉 You’ll have mine tomorrow after I have a night to sleep on it. ---
**Author:** ![Zebra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/c0e974/32.png) [@Zebra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zebra)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/5 "2003-04-29T20:37:56Z")
X2 72 Million Daddy Day Care 19 million Matrix Reloaded 67 million Bruce Almighty 56 million\* \*\* Finding Nemo 44 Million 2 Fast 2 Furious 26 Million Hollywood Homicide 14 Million Hulk 73 million Charlie Angles 2 24 million T3 89 Million\* \*These two films opeo on holiday weekends. My estimate INCLUDES the MONDAY for Bruce Almighty and is for the entire Fourth Of July weekend for T3 July 2 - July 6. \*\*I will need to change my estimate for Bruce Almighty IF they move to a Wednesday opening and you include the 5 day total. ---
**Author:** ![Zebra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/c0e974/32.png) [@Zebra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zebra)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/6 "2003-04-29T20:39:49Z")
Sorry that is six day total for a Wednesday opening on Memorial Day. In other words. What are your rules on holiday weekends? You are going to wait till Late Monday for the offical numbers not the Monday morning/Sunday night studio estimates. Right? ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/7 "2003-04-29T21:04:42Z")
X2: X-Men United - $40m Daddy Day Care - $24m The Matric Reloaded - $71m Bruce Almighty - $28m Finding Nemo - $20m 2 Fast 2 Furious - $35 Hollywood Homicide - $17m Hulk - $65m Charlie Angels 2: Full Throttle - $40m Terminator 3: The Rise of the Machines - $68m ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/8 "2003-04-29T21:17:17Z")
Zebra, Right now all I can say is I will use whatever is p[ublished as the weekend number for these movies at the Yahoo! site I indicated. I will wait until Wednesday to get the most final weekend numbers they publish. It appears to me that weekend means Fri-Sun only. If you have a better source I will be happy to consider it. ---
**Author:** ![Scupper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Scupper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scupper)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/9 "2003-04-29T21:23:16Z")
Presupposing the “whole weekend” conditions stipulated above, here is my WAG: X2: X-Men United - $66M Daddy Day Care - $14M The Matrix Reloaded - $72M Bruce Almighty - $33M Finding Nemo - $23M 2 Fast 2 Furious - $14M Hollywood Homicide - $16M Hulk - $59M Charlie Angels 2: Full Throttle - $21M Terminator 3: The Rise of the Machines - $81M ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/10 "2003-04-29T21:27:52Z")
I think boxofficemojo is considered pretty reliable. I’m not 100% sure of thier holiday weekend policy, other than they do have a “holiday weekend” total–not sure if they have a Friday-Sunday for holiday weekends. Brian ---
**Author:** ![Lisa-go-Blind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Lisa-go-Blind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lisa-go-Blind)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/11 "2003-04-29T23:12:42Z")
X2: X-Men United - $54 million Daddy Day Care - $11 million The Matric Reloaded - $60 million Bruce Almighty - $26 million Finding Nemo - $19 million 2 Fast 2 Furious - $39 million Hollywood Homicide - $21 million Hulk - $34 million Charlie Angels 2: Full Throttle - $37 million Terminator 3: The Rise of the Machines - $33 million ---
**Author:** ![Lisa-go-Blind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Lisa-go-Blind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lisa-go-Blind)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/12 "2003-04-29T23:13:51Z")
Sorry, “Hulk” was supposed to be 43 million. ---
**Author:** ![Payton\_s\_Servant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3da27b/32.png) [@Payton\_s\_Servant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Payton_s_Servant)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2003, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/13 "2003-04-30T01:25:00Z")
X2- XMen United: $55 million Daddy Day Care: $20 million The Matrix Re-Loaded: $75 million Bruce Almighty: $46 million Finding Nemo: $35 million 2 Fast 2 Furious: $22 million Hollywood Homicide: $20 million Hulk: $60 million Charlies Angels 2: Full Throttle: $45 million Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines: $68 million ---
**Author:** ![rexnervous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e9c0ed/32.png) [@rexnervous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rexnervous)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2003, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/14 "2003-04-30T04:12:39Z")
X2- XMen United: $47 million Daddy Day Care: $18 million The Matrix Re-Loaded: $81 million\* Bruce Almighty: $37 million Finding Nemo: $21 million 2 Fast 2 Furious: $19 million Hollywood Homicide: $18 million Hulk: $53 million Charlies Angels 2: Full Throttle: $32 million Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines: $69 million I am also assuming 4-day weekends as per above - Yes, I know, that’s huge for a 3-day weekend and a movie with 2+ hours running time, but I just have a gut feeling ---
**Author:** ![Zebra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/c0e974/32.png) [@Zebra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zebra)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2003, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/15 "2003-04-30T13:52:55Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Gangster Octopus \* > \*\*Zebra, > > Right now all I can say is I will use whatever is p[ublished as the weekend number for these movies at the Yahoo! site I indicated. I will wait until Wednesday to get the most final weekend numbers they publish. It appears to me that weekend means Fri-Sun only. > > If you have a better source I will be happy to consider it. \*\* Not always. Your OP says OPENING BOXOFFICE WEEKEND. In the case of a holiday or a holiday, Wednesday or, in the case of _The Matrix Reloaded_, Thursday opening the studios like to lump in the extra days. So Memorial Day Weekend grosses will usually include Monday and may include Wednesday through Monday if the film opens on Wednesday. Be sure that the gross you read is the “3-day total” if you want to only include the figures for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. So do you want to include the Opening Weekend, or the Friday, Saturday, Sunday figure? ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2003, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/16 "2003-04-30T17:14:13Z")
OK, I am going to change from Yahoo! to [http://boxofficemojo.com](http://boxofficemojo.com) since they specifically indicate that certain weekends are long weekends, while Yahoo! seems ambiguous on the issue. I will use whatever they report. ---
**Author:** ![Spurious\_George](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/94ad74/32.png) [@Spurious\_George](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spurious_George)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/17 "2003-05-01T17:29:56Z")
X2- XMen United: $62million Daddy Day Care: $13million The Matrix Re-Loaded: $90million Bruce Almighty: $39million Finding Nemo: $44million 2 Fast 2 Furious: $26million Hollywood Homicide: $13million Hulk: $55million Charlies Angels 2: Full Throttle: $45million Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines: $55million ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2003, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/18 "2003-05-01T23:34:51Z")
OK, Ihave all the picks in. I have set up a web page to update the standings each week. [SDMB Box Office Prediction Competition](http://leftfieldsports.com/boxoffice.htm) I may snazz it up as I get motivated to do so. I will also update it here. BTW, I have picks on that list, but the prize will go to whomever has the best score that is not me. So if you are me then you can’t win, sorry I did not mention that before. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2003, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/19 "2003-05-03T18:41:53Z")
X2: X-Men United: $66 million Daddy Day Care - $7 million The Matric Reloaded $75 million Bruce Almighty - $16 million Finding Nemo - $22 million 2 Fast 2 Furious - $26 million Hollywood Homicide - $9 million Hulk - $45 million Charlie Angels 2: Full Throttle - $32 million Terminator 3: The Rise of the Machines - $44 million Please include me. I just saw this for the first time and swear I haven’t heard anything about projections for X2. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2003, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947/20 "2003-05-04T22:21:03Z")
X2 made 85.85 million according to Yahoo. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/box-office-prediction-contest/171947.md?page=2)