# Brace yourself, the US economy is going to tank in the next 1-3 years

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brace-yourself-the-us-economy-is-going-to-tank-in-the-next-1-3-years/736463>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Created:** [November 2, 2015, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brace-yourself-the-us-economy-is-going-to-tank-in-the-next-1-3-years/736463 "2015-11-02T21:36:51Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brace-yourself-the-us-economy-is-going-to-tank-in-the-next-1-3-years/736463/41 "2015-11-04T15:58:13Z")

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There is also the issue that it takes some number of net new jobs just to keep up with population growth. I don’t have the latest numbers, but it’s not to far from 100K/month.

IOW, 100K net new jobs this month = unemployment rate stays the same this month. We collectively need to run pretty fast up the down escalator just to stay in place.

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**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brace-yourself-the-us-economy-is-going-to-tank-in-the-next-1-3-years/736463/42 "2015-11-04T16:12:04Z")

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> [@LSLGuy](#):
>
> There is also the issue that it takes some number of net new jobs just to keep up with population growth. I don’t have the latest numbers, but it’s not to far from 100K/month.
> 
> IOW, 100K net new jobs this month = unemployment rate stays the same this month. We collectively need to run pretty fast up the down escalator just to stay in place.

Why? The Boomers are retiring at something like 4 million per year. And we know that the unemployment rate really HASN’T stayed the same…it’s been dropping pretty steadily from it’s peak at the height of the last recession.

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**Author:** ![Smeghead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Smeghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smeghead)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brace-yourself-the-us-economy-is-going-to-tank-in-the-next-1-3-years/736463/43 "2015-11-04T16:45:23Z")

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Just out of curiosity, assuming your “bones” are correct, what benefit will I gain from being braced as opposed to my default unbraced status?

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**Author:** ![pinqy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a3d4f5/32.png) [@pinqy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinqy)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brace-yourself-the-us-economy-is-going-to-tank-in-the-next-1-3-years/736463/44 "2015-11-04T18:29:28Z")

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> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> Except that those jobs are part time (less than 30 hours/week,

BLS defines part time as less than 35 hours a week, and we have not been gaining more part time than full time. Average hours have gone up.

> [@](#):
>
> half of those employed make less than $30,000/year.

That’s including people who work part time or who only worked part of the year.

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